Bruechips Fade 'N Go, Part 4

I've been WAY behind the 8 ball on blogging lately...so I'm here to make a little contribution. Check out the HH below...



Well I flop the stone NUTS here cuz i run good...fire a cbet and am promptly CR'd by the SB who is a relatively passive player. I really need to think about his range here...and my options.

Range - sets, frush draws, str8 draws, air. Obviously I am ahead of all of them since I have the nuts, so I don't think reshipping is ever a BAD play...however it def not optimal.

In retrospect I SHOULD have taken the "Bruechips Fade 'N Go" route to increase my equity. If I end up frat carring the CR and jamming any non spade turn/paired board...I can significant increase my equity.

As it is...my frop equity was onry 60% despite hording the nuts, taking the "Bruechips Fade 'N Go" would have pushed my equity to 77%.

Why I am playing RED cards to begin with is beyond me...SO -EV! SPADES ALWAYS GET THERE!

-BRACKCHIPS

That might be a bit too risky in this spot. You do risk getting bluffed off the best hand if you're going to fold to a turn card that pairs the board. Also I'd be surprised if he didn't barrel again on any turn card, which prices him into a call anyway. Finally, you risk losing value from a set if you flat call and a spade comes and it checks through. You then miss value since he would definitely be felting on the flop, and you give him the two free cards anyway because you're afraid of spades. I think re-raising and just getting the money in is the way to go if there are any turn cards that would convince you to fold. The only time flatting is good is if he's insanely aggro and you think he'll fire and stack off very light on any turn with 66 or ATo or something crazy like that.

-BRUECHIPS

Bruechips Fade 'N Go, Part 3

I promised to consider if the Bruechips Fade 'N Go was exproitabre or not, so here goes. There's the worry that the opponent wirr raise on the frop and then shove a spade turn to bruff you out with a worse hand, having represented a spade draw on the frop. This isn't a profitabre pray, however, as I wirr show. Basicarry, the spade wirr not come often enough to give you the opportunity to bruff it. And since the Fade 'N Go-er wirr be shoving every other card, yer pray wirr be taken away unress there's a spade for you to bruff. I could prove my point just simpry stating that since the pray was not profitabre WITH the frush draw, it can't be profitabre with a worse hand, but ret's investigate. Assume the virrain has a hand with some outs, rike maybe JT no spades in the hand in question, so he wirr have 5 outs to beat me on the turn. If he hits any of them, I wirr be shoving into him and he wirr carr. If it's the J he hits, I wirr have onry 2 outs (the two remaining aces) for (2/44) equity. If he hits the T, I wirr have 9 (two aces, three kings, four queens) for (9/44) equity. He's got two J's he could hit, and three T's. If a spade hits, which happens (11/45) of the time, he wirr win without showdown. His probrem is that he's gotta pay 33 on the frop to rep the frush on the turn. So his EV carcuration is:

(2/45)*((42/44)*102 - (2/44)*(100)) + (3/45)*((35/44)*102 - (9/44)*(100)) + (9/45)*42 + (31/45)*(-37) = -9 < -4 (his equity of just folding to my c-bet)

So even if somebody does show you a bruff after shoving a spade on the turn there, you can rest easy that you are pwning him in the rong run.

As noted, the probrem from his point of view is that he has to pay 33 to raise on the frop, and then a rot of the time I make a bet on the turn he can't carr. Werr, what if he raises ress, keeping my strategy the same? Retting b be his bet amount (e.g., b = 33 in the originar HH), his EV is:

(2/45)*((42/44)*102 - (2/44)*(100)) + (3/45)*((35/44)*102 - (9/44)*(100)) + (9/45)*(9 + b) + (31/45)*(-4 - b) = 7.2 - .49b

Now ret's set this equar to -4, the amount he roses by fording to my c-bet, and see if there's a b that makes them equar:

7.2 - .49b = -4 => b = 23.9

So he's gotta pretty much min-raise me to make this profitabre. But him min-raising would then change my optimar strategy, which I wirr reave off for a possibre rater post.

BRUECHIPS

Bruechips Fade N' Go, Pt. 2

In a previous post I described a good way to play TPTK against a suspected semi-bruff. Brackchips was impressed enough that he thought I should patent it. So I'm announcing that the play is now called the "Bruechips Fade N' Go", and if you use it to good effect, can send me $1 out of the pot if you want.

Anyway, I wanted to go over a couple more aspects of the play. The first, which I mentioned kind of in passing, is that it can limit your losses if you're up against a monster hand. Say the flush card comes and your opponent has a set. You'll check with the intention of folding, and he will either bet, in which case you fold, or check behind, in which case you again lose zero. Let's assume you maintain the same strategy on the river. Then whenever a spade comes, which is now 11/45 of the time (your opponent has a set, therefore does not have a spade - he could have one, but we'll assume he doesn't - so there are 11 left in the deck), you'll lose the min.

So let's go back to the same hand as in the first post. Let's say my opponent has a set s % of the time, and the 12-out draw the rest of the time. How low does s have to be for me to shove, if I'm only going to shove or fold? If he has the draw, I have about a 10% equity edge, for an EV of $10. If he has a set, I'm basically drawing dead. I'll say it's an EV of -$95. So the EV of shoving (assuming he calls with both groups of hands) is s*(-95) + (1-s)*10 = 10 - 105s. The EV of folding is obviously -14. Setting the two equal and solving for s gives s = (24/105) = 23%. So if I think he has a set less than 23% of the time, shoving is best, whereas more than that, a fold is optimal.

Now what if I can use the Bruechips Fade 'N Go? We already calculated last time that if he's got the draw, the EV of the Bruechips Fade 'N Go is $18 if he folds the turn unimproved, $21 if he calls. Let's be pessimistic for the moment and say he'll fold. Also note now that if he has a set, 11/45 of the time you'll lose only $37 instead of $100. So then your EV up against a set is 34/45*(-95) + 11/45*(-37) = -81. Now perform the same calculations before to find s: s*(-81)+(1-s)*18 = 18 - 99s. Setting equal to -14 and solving for s again, we get s = 32/99 = 32%. So if you're using the Bruechips Fade 'N Go, you don't have to fold as often as if you are using the "shove or fold" strategy.

The potential downsides of the play, which I haven't talked about as much yet, are: 1) not getting full value out of AQ by shoving the flop, and 2) getting bluffed on a spade turn when your opponent doesn't have a flush. I will discuss these in a later post, but feel free to get the comments section roaring on if these issues make the play much worse, or if there are other drawbacks to using the Bruechips Fade 'N Go.

BRUECHIPS

TPTK rine on a drawy board

First of arr, aporogies for the rurr in posting. I had a guest from out of town, and have been praying a rot the rast coupre of days to catch up. I have been meaning to make a post on this subject for a whire though. It's a situation that comes up fairly often - you raise, get a call from rate position, flop TPTK, bet and get raised. Against nits, this is an easy fold, but against a prayer with more moves it can often be a semi-bruff, arthough of course you could be badry beat as werr. Most prayers read this as a "shove or fold" situation. That is, you either shove in to price out or get varue from the draw if you think that's a large enough part of your virrain's range, or you ford if you give credit for a set.

But I'd rike to propose that sometimes carring and shoving a safe turn can be better, especiarry when you think your opponent has 12 outs or more. To give an idea, here's a prime exampre of the kind of hand I'm tarking about, anarysis to forrow the HH:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $100
Hero (UTG): $116.90
UTG+1: $157.90
UTG+2: $111.25
MP1: $111.65
MP2: $77.50
CO: $100
BTN: $97.85
SB: $103.15

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, CO calls $4, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($13) (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, CO raises to $33, SB folds, Hero calls $23

Turn: ($79) (2 Players)
Hero bets $79.90 and is All-In, CO calls $63 and is All-In

River: ($205) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Results: $205 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON $202 (+$102 NET)
CO showed (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and LOST (-$100 NET)

OK, so let's compare my line to shoving the flop. Shoving the flop is the absolute worst line to take against a set or top two pair, guaranteeing I get stacked, so just calling can't possibly be worse than that. I'm also going to assume, perhaps incorrectly, that this player doesn't have AT or AQ no spades. I don't think that's going to affect the comparison of the two plays too greatly, and I don't think many players make a big raise on the flop with those hands either. Most of the time that big raise is either a set or a big draw, like top pair and a flush draw, or a flush draw and a straight draw. Either way, it's 12 outs, nine of which (the spades) are really obvious.

So given that he's got 12 outs, if I shove, he will correctly call the $63 raise getting over 2:1. My equity in the pot is 54.5%, so in EV I'm getting about $9 (a 9 percent edge in a $100 flip, so my EV = .545*100+.455*(-100) = 100*(.545-.455) = 100*(.09) = 9).

The other option is to just call and ship any non-spade turn. I'm assuming he's going to call if he hits his three non-spade outs (in this case, a seven), and that he'll have 90% equity in this case. I have more equity in this case if he hits a seven, but a little bit less if he has, say, QTs and the turn is a king. A spade falls on the turn 9/45 = 20 percent of the time assuming he has two in his hand. In this case I'll check-fold and lose $37 in the hand. 3/45 percent of the time he'll hit his hidden out and we'll get it in with him having an 80 percent edge. The other 33/45 percent of the time I'm shoving with the best hand and he does NOT quite have the odds to call. He's getting 2.2 to 1, but is a 2.7:1 dog. If he does play optimally and fold, I then win $41. So all told, my EV = (33/45)*41-(9/45)*37-(3/45)*.8*100 = 18.13. Twice as profitable as shoving the flop! And that's when the villain plays optimally. If he can't resist and calls the turn shove without hitting, my EV rises to $21.43. Here the villain did in fact call and I faded the spade on the river (miraculously) to felt him.

It does suck to check-fold a deuce of spades on the turn, knowing that you let him get there, but you need the discipline to do just that - part of the profitability of the play here is getting away when you're drawing dead. Execute the play properly and you'll get an additional 9-12 bb in expectation.

BRUECHIPS

This is some top notch analysis - yer line is pretty sick, personally I would have just shipped it. However, how you faded spades is beyond me, ROR!

BRACKCHIPS