Level 1, Level 2, Level 3...Level 4?

First off, a big thank you to Alan for pimping us in his post today. We've already got his Recess Rampage blog linked over on the right, but if you haven't checked it out yet, do so as it's a must read.

I'll try to live up to Alan's description of our blog as having strong analysis. Here's a hand I played the other night against a very solid regular whom I had running at 12/10 VPIP/PFR. It looks really weak-tight, and it's possible I made a bad play by checking the flop and then just folding the turn, but I'll try and explain my thoughts afterwards:

Seat 5: CO ($210)
Seat 6: HERO (button) ($225.90)
Seat 9: UTG ($196)

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [Qs Qd]
UTG calls $2
CO raises to $10
HERO raises to $35
CO calls $25

*** FLOP *** [2c Jd Td]

CO checks
HERO checks

*** TURN *** [2c Jd Td] [Ac]

CO bets $60
HERO folds

Pre-flop, I'm very happy to see queens on the button. The CO's raise doesn't scare me too much. There's a player limping UTG, and he could be isolating with a non-premium hand. Even at 12/10, he is a good enough player that this would definitely be in his arsenal. My re-raise is definitely for value. If he had 4-bet me, I would probably have to stack off and hope he has AK or JJ. But he just calls me. This is something solid, tight players do not do very often out of position. I THINK the hands he'd be most likely to do this with are JJ, TT, and AKs. 99-88, and QQ might be possible. He might slowplay AA this way. AQs, 77 and lower, or KK I really can't see.

The flop comes JT-high with two diamonds. Thinking about this in a level-1 way, my hand looks great. It's an overpair to the board. I have 82% equity vs. a random hand, and this is basically what level-1 analysis is. But now let's go another level and think about my equity vs. my opponent's actual range. If his range is JJ,TT, and AKs, my equity is 35%. If I add in 99 and 88, I get up to 65%. The problem is, if I bet, 99 and 88 will fold, while JJ,TT, AdKd, and maybe even AcKc will check-raise all-in.

So what if I bet 60 and fold to a check-raise? JJ-TT and AKs represent 10 total hands (3 combos each of JJ and TT since there's a J and a T on the board, and 4 AKs combos). 7 of these hands check-raise me. Betting risks 60 to win 75. The EV of that play is 75*(3/10) + (-60)*(7/10), which is less than zero. So betting would be incorrect, if I've got his range right. If he check-raises with the other AK hands, too, then it's obviously even worse. If AA is in his range and he check-raises that too, then I get a fold only 12/28 of the time, and that's where this starts to be a losing play. If he were a bad player and I thought I could get value here against AJ, then I would bet. But he really has AJ pretty much never.  Betting would be +EV only if 88 and 99 are in his range and AA is not. Then JJ-88 and AKs would represent 22 total hands and he would be check-raising 7-10 of them, depending on whether or not he check-raises his non-diamond AKs hands. 

But I am also almost sure that I can wait until the turn to fold out 99 and 88 (which, again, I'm not even sure are in his range at all). Being in position will allow me to play the turn pretty well. If that's the case, then checking the flop and betting the turn if a blank comes and he checks again has all the advantages of betting the flop and less of the disadvantages, as I don't think he would check again in order to check-raise with a set or straight flush draw. If he checks again on the turn, I can bet without more confidently.

The turn brings an A and he bets. This is a spot where I think Level 3 analysis (what does he think I have?) is important. When I re-raise before the flop and then check this flop, I think my hand looks a lot like AK or AQ. Yet he bets an A on the turn. That leads me to believe that he's looking for a call or a raise, because he's got a set. Once I am pretty sure I'm beat, there's no point in peeling and hoping he checks the river or I spike a K or anything like that. Time to pitch it.

It's possible he was on level 4 and went ahead and bet 99 on the turn, but 1) I really doubt it, since we don't have much of a history and you can't trust many random players to fold anything, and 2) if he did, it's a great play, and I've just got to give him credit.

-BRUECHIPS

Avoiding Anti-Tilt

I enjoyed the great weather today by taking in a day game down at Petco. Jake Peavy cruised in a win over the Dodgers in his return from the DL. Unfortunately I also had to watch the scoreboard as the Mets blew yet another late-inning lead. I think we're pretty much at the nut low for the Mets this season right now. Wagner has been terrible recently, but he's not the reason the team is 3 games under .500 for the season. Only the Nationals have scored fewer runs than the Mets in the NL East this year. Part of that is because Shea is a pitcher's park, but the Mets have given 50+ ABs already this year to players like Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Angel Pagan, Raul Casanova, and Damion Easley. And at power positions, like LF and 1B. That's inexcusable for a team with such deep pockets. You can blame injuries, but with a roster full of oft-injured players, how could you not see them coming and be ready? I've said it before, and I'll say it again: SIGN HIM.

One of the things I'm really trying to work on this summer is staying on even keel over the course of a session, and even several sessions. Obviously that means not tilting when I've lost a couple big hands or keep getting re-raised, but that also means not getting overconfident when I've won a few hands.

I've noticed recently that when I've made a couple of nice bluffs or value bets, sometimes I will get too confident in my postflop ability and start calling raises and re-raises pre-flop with some pretty crappy hands because I think I can outplay my opponents post-flop. Certainly sometimes this is the case, and I think there's a time and place for calling those bets pre-flop with speculative hands, especially in position, but it is to be used sparingly. In addition, if I've been outplaying somebody a few hands in a row, they will start to get very suspicious and be less likely to fold.

Poker, like baseball, is a humbling game. No matter how good you are, you are headed for a downswing at some point. All that "play the man, not the cards" crap seems to imply that the great players have the power to just make their opponent fold at will in a big pot, which is obviously not the case. Sometimes the cards will cooler you, or your opponent will make a play you don't expect. If you get cocky and think you're going to win every pot, the downswing will tilt you that much more. The games have been very good to me recently, but I've got a long way to go with my game, and it's good to keep that in mind even through the fieriest of heaters.

-BRUECHIPS

ATs goes to showdown, plus tales from conversations with undergrads

Thanks to the commenters who guessed at our donk villain's hand in yesterday's post. Fortunately, I will not have to be shipping any of my bankroll to you guys. Here's what showdown looked like:

BB showed [Jh 2h] and lost with two pair, Threes and Twos
HERO showed [Ts As] and won ($56.80) with two pair, Tens and Threes

That's right, he check-called twice on a K33T rainbow board with Jh2h. And then "value bets" his bottom pair on the river? Definitely one of the weirder lines I have seen in quite a while. I guess he was planning to bet any river and try to rep a 3? I guess it would have worked if I had held 66 or something like that...very odd, though. Reminds me of a limit hold-em hand I remember Ali Nejad talking about on Poker Road radio a while back. I don't remember exactly which show it was from, but the hand went something like this:

Ali has AQ in the BB, folds to a hyper-aggro player in the small blind, and they cap it pre-flop (for those of you who are unfamiliar with limit hold-'em, there's usually a maximum to the number of bets that can go in on a given street. When that limit is reached, the pot is said to be "capped"). Flop is something like 773 rainbow. Three or four bets put in again. Turn is an 8.  Small blind checks, Ali value bets his A-high, small blind calls. River is a deuce, and the small blind leads. Ali calls and the guy shows 9h2h FTW! ROR!!!

Since I proctored the exam for the undergrad class that I TA for today, I thought I might do a short "Best Of Conversations I've Had With Undergrads"

1) Undergrad: "I think I should get partial credit for my answer on this question."
Me: "It's a multiple choice question."
UG: "Well I answered D) None of the above and the answer was A). Can't I get some credit for knowing it wasn't B) or C)?"

2) Me (trying to go as slowly as possible in explaining a problem): "OK, so here we've got x/8 = 4. So what's x?"
UG: Blank stare.
Me: "We want to get to where we have JUST x on one side. Let's try that...what happens when we multiply both sides by eight...what do we get then?"
UG: "x equals eight times four??"
Me: "Great! So what's eight times four?"
UG: Blank stare.
Me (in disbelief): "OK, imagine I have four CD holders, and each contains eight CDs. How many CDs do I have?"
UG: "36?"

3) UG (trying to grub for points on an exam): "On this question, I was just confused."
Me: "Yes, I can see that from your answer."
UG: "I mean I just didn't understand the question. Can I get some points back for that?"
Me: "You want points because you didn't understand the question?"
UG: "Yea."
Me: "No."

-BRUECHIPS

Hand reading by process of elimination

Often times you can eliminate hands from a player's range, either by what's on the board, in your hand, or your opponent's actions. This leaves you with a smaller range to put your opponent on, which helps you make better decisions. Here's one hand where I used what was on the board and in my hand to make a bluff:

Seat 1: HERO (BB) ($110.75)
Seat 3: MP ($50)
Seat 5: button ($44.85)

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [7s 7d]
MP raises to $1.75
Button calls $1.75
HERO calls $1.25

*** FLOP *** [Qs 2h 9s]

HERO checks
MP bets $3
Button folds
HERO calls $3 (I thought this was a pretty ghey bet and even out of position I thought I could continue in the hand profitably)

*** TURN *** [Qs 2h 9s] [As]

HERO checks
MP bets $6
HERO raises to $18 (OK, here's the interesting part of the hand. This is like THE scare card in the deck and I check-called the flop. If he's even half-way decent, he will be bluffing this card with most of his nothing hands, all of his very good hands, and checking behind only decent made hands that he doesn't want to get blown off, like AT or AJ, maybe with a spade. Now notice - this guy raised from MP, there are three big spades on the board, and I have the 7s in my hand. What other spade hands could he have raised with? KJs certainly. JTs almost certainly. KTs and T8s possible but less likely. Basically, there are somewhere between two and four SPECIFIC hands in his range that just hit that card, mixed in with all his nothing hands that he's now bluffing. The only other hands he could really continue with are sets and AK with the K of spades, both of which he might have checked for fear of the flush. Anyway I decided to raise - which I probably would not have done if the turn were, say, the deuce of spades because then his many Ax of spades hands are still possible - and he instafolded.)
MP folds

Here's one where I had a river decision vs. a donk:

Seat 5: BB ($50.80)
Seat 6: HERO (UTG) ($138.45)

*** HOLE CARDS **
Dealt to HERO [Ts As]
HERO raises to $1.75
BB calls $1.25

** FLOP ** [3s 3d Kc]

BB checks
HERO bets $3
BB calls $3 (Standard so far...I c-bet, he calls, I put him on some middle pocket pair, a weak king, maybe a slowplayed 3.)

*** TURN ** [3s 3d Kc] [Th]
BB checks
HERO bets $6.50 (I'm now ahead most of those pocket pairs, and I usually get little credit in these spots, so I need to value bet thin.)
BB calls $6.50 (No raise here means I'm pretty confident he does not have a 3. He could still have a K. I will probably check behind if the river is a blank.)

*** RIVER ** [3s 3d Kc Th] [2d]
BB bets $18.50 (WTF? This bet definitely surprised me. I would be really surprised if he would lead out big with a K like this. The donk line with a K here is to check-call again. Once we've eliminated a K, what's left? Pocket 2's? He slowplayed 3's until the river? Those hands are just too rare...plus he would have had to call down with 22 or have slowplayed 2 streets with trips, and I'm not willing to give him credit for having done either. His story doesn't really add up, so I'm gonna call.)
HERO calls $18.50

Guesses as to what he had? Like my call? I will personally ship $5 to you on FT if you can nail his hand down. I'll post the answer in the next couple of days....

-BRUECHIPS

The Summer Ahead

Some of you might remember the prop bet I have with Brackchips regarding my poker play this summer. I'm definitely looking forward to grinding some serious hours at the felt. Now that I've turned in my big paper for the year, and only have grading responsibilities left to go, it's time to look ahead to a summer vacation filled with Hold 'Em.

The purpose is not just to build up the bankroll, but to improve my game. I hope by the end of the summer I will be a much better player than I am right now. I have some monetary goals that I won't reveal until I do a summer recap, but here are some things that I'm going to try and work on as a player:

1) Tilt control: Usually I play only 1 or 2 hour sessions, and I can usually avoid tilt. But playing longer sessions, the frustration can build up more, and I'll have to be able to keep my cool and stay on top of my game. I have improved a LOT in this area since I first started playing. For a while I would go on monkey tilt after a bad beat, which was bad for my win rate and my overall happiness.

2) Move up the six-max levels: You've probably noticed that my 6-max hands are all from $0.25/$0.50, which is kind of dumb given my bankroll. Now that I've put in some 6-max hands and gotten the feel of it, I think I can move up a little. Hopefully by the end of the summer I'll be playing some decent stakes. I think overall the win rates per 100 hands for good 6-max players are better than those at full ring, and there are usually more games available at the higher stakes. Add on the fact that more hands per hour are dealt, and 6-max becomes a mandatory part of the arsenal of any serious hold-'em player.

3) Adjust my play to my opponents: I do a pretty good job of this, but sometimes I get a little spewy trying to bluff guys off one pair that just don't fold very often.

4) Learn some new games: This is way down the list, but I'd like to get decent at PLO or maybe even some Omaha Hi-Lo. Those games are a good distraction from NLHE, and there is plenty of action to be had there.

Good luck on the felt this summer, all. Of course with thousands of hands to choose from every day, there should be a few interesting ones for me to post and discuss.

-BRUECHIPS

Life Changes

I recently got laid off from my job and last week I officially joined the ranks of the unemployed. While this is obviously -EV for my cashflow/financial stability...so far it is def +EV on life. I feel much more relaxed, less stressed, and just more positive in general. You might be asking how this relates to a poker blog...well here goes.

a) I am playing less - this probably seems counterintuitive to most because I have more time on my hands since I'm no longer 9-5ing behind a desk, but I just don't feel the need to play as much now. Don't get me wrong though, I still love and enjoy the game more than ever - the obsession/addiction has not subsided.

b) Playing my A game more - partly due to the fact I am playing shorter sesh's...this obviously should have a +EV on my winrate. Kudos to Gnome's post on focusing on the importance of bringing your A game. Do you want to put in an hr or two of your A game or end up in some gross length sesh where yer game slips unconrollably? Recognition of when your game is slipping (and quitting!) is paramount of success.

c) Not tilting as much - I think this is a product of being in a better state of mind with the rest of my life now that I'm unemployed. I'm relaxing, spending time doing things I want to which is awesome2themax - and this has def translating to tilting less.

Here's to pwning the tables!

-BRACKCHIPS

Brack is Beautiful (Part 8)

Always sad to see brack on brack crime:

Seat 5: UTG ($141.30)
Seat 6: HERO ($240.10)
Seat 7: SB ($301) (<-- megadonk)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qs Js] (spades!!)
UTG calls $2
SB calls $1
HERO checks (no need to raise, just check and watch the brack magic unford)

*** FLOP *** [Jc 8s 3d]
SB checks
HERO bets $4 (Pretty good frop, with top pair and backdoor frush and straight draws)
UTG calls $4 (His range is now something like JT-KJ, TT-99, T9s, and 89-87. Not too worried about this call. If he had raised, I'd probably fold because it would represent a set or AJ)
SB calls $4 (His range is basically any random hand. Top pair plays well against that range)

*** TURN *** [Jc 8s 3d] [As] (Spade me one more time!)

SB checks
HERO bets $14 (No reason to stop betting...possible UTG has KJ and will now fold, also possible SB will call me down with a worse hand)
UTG folds
SB calls $14 (Ideal)

*** RIVER *** [Jc 8s 3d As] [4s] (Giving me the 2nd nut frush)

SB checks
HERO bets $220.10, and is all in (A few reasons I decided to overbet for value here: 1) The virrain is a donk and hates to fold. 2) My hand is well disguised since the frush came through the backdoor. 3) There are a bunch of possible second-best hands here. He could have a lower flush, J4, A4, 34, even 52 for a straight. Whereas there aren't that many hands that will call only 40 but not 220. If he has T9 or KQ for a busted straight draw, he's not calling anything. Maybe with a lower jack like J7 he'd call just 40. But he doesn't have exactly one pair that often here, I think.)
SB calls $220.10

*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO shows [Qs Js] a flush, Ace high
SB mucked [6s 9s] - a flush, Ace high (Nice call on the flop, buddy!)

-BRUECHIPS

Exploiting Light 3-bettors: What NOT to do

I've been experimenting with some different lines in dealing with light 3-bettors. Here's one that almost NEVER works: calling pre-flop and then floating or raising a raggedy flop. You will get zero credit. If you had an overpair to the board, why weren't you re-raising pre-flop? Sets don't come around often enough to be scared of. AK will be 3-bet shoving pretty much every time. Incidentally, this should tell you that it's a great way to get value out of big pocket pairs is to just flat call a 3-bet, hope the board isn't too bad, and then raise a c-bet. You will get re-shoved by air many a time. Here are a couple of examples, all against players I'd consider very aggressive. The $1/$2 hand is at a full ring game, while all the $0.25/$0.50 hands are at 6-max tables.

Trying a raise:

Seat 3 (CO): HERO ($200)
Seat 5: SB ($223.55)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qh Kh]
folds to me...
HERO raises to $7
SB raises to $26
HERO calls $19 (Third time in a row he had 3-bet me, I decided to call this one in position and play aggressively on the flop)

*** FLOP *** [3s 9d 5d]

SB bets $36
HERO raises to $80 (This is a terrible play. He reads this small raise for what it is, an "I hope you have nothing and fold" raise, and shoves over the top)
SB raises to $197.55, and is all in

Well played by him, but again, I'm not doing a good job of repping a hand here, and he can shove with A-high, thinking it's either the best hand, or he at least has some outs.

Here's an example of trying a float:

Seat 1 (button): HERO ($52.35)
Seat 2: SB ($72.65)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt toHERO [Qh 9d]
UTG calls $0.50
2 folds...
HERO raises to $2.25
SB raises to $7.50
BB and UTG fold
HERO calls $5.25 (UTG was a donk. The SB was an aggressive player and probably realized I was trying to isolate him so I called. But this raise is big enough compared to the stacks that there's not really enough room for me to outplay him after the flop enough, and my hand just has very little value. So this is just a bad call. I would definitely not recommend it in this spot. I should have waited for a better one. But on to the rest of the hand...)

*** FLOP *** [8c 2h 4c]
SB bets $12
HERO calls $12 (A float's not going to work here either. There's nothing scary on this board. I was thinking "it looks like I have a pair that wants a showdown, maybe he'll check-fold A-high on the turn hoping that I'll accomodate him and go for the cheap showdown". But if I had AK, or really any hand, I'd be shoving pretty much every turn, hoping to get this calling-station donkey to fold his dogshit one pair hand that looks like it wants to take not just any showdown, but a CHEAP showdown. Also note how the shallowness of the stacks comes into play here. If he bets the turn, he's either already putting me all-in, or he's committed to calling my raise with ATC. He can't bet-fold as in the hand from the earlier post on defending vs. 3-bets.)

*** TURN *** [8c 2h 4c] [4d]
SB bets $33 (sure enough, he follows through and shoves)
HERO folds

Just because I don't want to make a post that consists entirely of me making dumb plays and losing money, here are some better spots to raise (notice the difference in the flops):

Seat 2: BB ($49.25)
Seat 3 (UTG): HERO ($83.15)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Js Ah]
HERO raises to $1.75
BB raises to $6
HERO calls $4.25 (This guy had a 3b percentage around 20...I was absolutely ready to stack off if I hit a pair. Also note the preflop betting is a lower fraction of the effective stack size than in the Q9 hand.)

*** FLOP *** [6h 8s Kd]
BB bets $8
HERO raises to $77.15, and is all in (Reasons for making this play: 1) No matter how loose-aggro he is, VERY difficult for him to call this bet without a King or a hand that beats a King, and there just aren't that many of those in any 20% of hands. 2) His bet size is weak...I think if he had a king, he'd bet more like $10. 3) I raised UTG, which means I would be more likely to be slowplaying AA, KK, or AK. Weaker hands I could have, but that he still probably can't beat, would be QQ-JJ or KQ.)
BB folds

Here's another one against a tighter player, but I went with it because stacks are deep:

Seat 2 (button): HERO ($113.40)
Seat 4: BB ($64.50)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5d 6d]
HERO raises to $1.75
BB raises to $6
HERO calls $4.25 (We're deep enough that I can call this normal-sized re-raise)

*** FLOP *** [Js As 6c]
BB bets $8.15
HERO raises to $21 (Again, really hard for him to continue here without an ace, and even for a relatively tight player at a 6-max game, there aren't enough aces in his range. He's gonna fold KK-QQ, TT-99, plus some of his re-raising range I'm actually ahead of, like KQo or 89s. It's hard for me to rep AK here having just called pre-flop, but hands that he'd be scared of would be a set of sixes, AJ, maybe A6s, and some combo spade/straight draw like KsQs. But really, I thought for a tight player like him, he just wouldn't even consider 3-betting all-in for 130 bbs with KK or QQ on an ace-high board.)
BB folds

These hands are just examples to make my point. Obviously, SOME of the time in the 65s hand, he will show up with a set of jacks and shove over the top and I'll have thrown away $21. And maybe occasionally in the KQs hand, I will get a fold on 9-high board. But in general, I think these examples are representative of what you'll get in each situation. To raise c-bets from a 3-bettor (or even in a normal raised pot where you called in position), I need to consider the board texture at least as much as my own hand or how aggressive or loose my opponent is.

-BRUECHIPS

SHIP IT!

Had our 2,000 hit sometime last week and I was able to get a screenshot of it...SHIP IT! Thanks to all our loyal and non loyal readers for getting us to this milestone!

MLB Prop bets, revisited

Werr, we're about 1/3 of the way through the baseball season, so time to take a rook back at how our prop bets are progressing. It's a very long season, and a good month or two from anybody could change things around, but it's an excuse to talk baseball, and maybe get a Met-hating comment or two from Gnome.

AL MVP:

Our picks (batting avg./on base pct./slugging pct.) :

David Ortiz (.252/.354/.485)
Miguel Cabrera (.275/.355/.460)
Arex Rodriguez (.289/.364/.526)
Vradimir Guerrero (.246/.308/.424)
BJ Upton (.306/.412/.439)
Grady Sizemore (.255/.368/.472)

Current leaders:

Josh Hamilton (.326/.370/.604)
Carlos Quentin (.293/.396/.571)


Comments:

Offense has been way down in the AL this year, so it's no surprise that our MVP picks aren't exactly lighting it up. Josh Hamilton is the only AL player slugging over .600, and there are only 7 players slugging over .500. Last year the numbers were 3 and 14, respectively. Brackchips's pick of BJ Upton is actuarry rooking pretty decent, as he has really improved his BB/K ratio (now 38/47, compared to 65/154 last year), an excellent sign, and the Rays are out in front  of the AL East. If the Rays do win the AL East, voters will be looking for someone to reward. If BJ can up his HR total (he's sitting at 3 right now, hit 24 in 474 ABs last year), he'd be in a good spot to benefit. Of the other guys here, Sizemore, Cabrera and A-Rod would need a turnaround not only in their own stats but also in their teams' records. Ortiz has heated up recently, but as a DH, he would need mammoth offensive stats to take down the MVP award, and it's tough to see him ending up with those kind of numbers given how his first month went.

NL MVP:

Our picks:

David Wright (.284/.390/.531)
Albert Pujors (.369/.490/.652)
Mark Teixiera (.271/.356/.440)
Matt Horriday (.321/.407/.545)
Prince Fielder (.274/.363/.448)
Chase Utrey (.311/.392/.653)

Current leaders:

Utley
Pujols
Chipper Jones (.413/.498/.653)
Lance Berkman (.385/.471/.751)


Comments:

Definitely a different picture in the NL. Do not adjust your screens, those are the correct stats for Jones and Berkman. Those guys are mashing. The MVP race will probably end up coming down to which teams get into the playoffs. If the Mets turn it around, I think Wright gets back in the conversation as well. What has happened to Fielder and Teixeira?? These guys are both beasts, yet they're only 8th and 9th in slugging in the NL. Among first basemen. Yikes.

AL CY:

Our picks (ERA,K/BB,IP):

Josh Beckett (4.30, 75/14, 67)
Justin Verlander (5.16, 44/31, 75)
Fausto Carmona (3.10, 23/38, 58)
Erik Bedard (4.08, 48/23, 53)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.53, 55/38, 64)
Roy Harraday (2.93, 71/11, 89)

Current leaders:

Cliff Lee (1.88, 57/10, 72)

Comments:

Incredibry, this rooks rike Criff Ree's race to rose right now. We could have picked 50 guys and not gotten to Criff Ree. But his K/BB ratio shows that his success is for real. For those of you who don't know, Voros McCracken showed long ago that there are basically 3 determinants of a pitcher's success long term: walks, strikeouts, and HR allowed. The rest is due to random variation, baseball's version of the suckout. You can see in the stats who the biggest luckboxes of the first third of the season are: Dice-K and Fausto Carmona. They haven't been pitching near as well as their ERAs would suggest, Carmona especially. Dice-K has now landed on the DL. Carmona, as a sinker-ball pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls, can be effective with a somewhat lower K/BB ratio (same goes for other sinker-ballers like Chien-Ming Wang), but 23/38 is just ridiculous. Beckett and Halladay have sparkling ratios, however, indicating that they should be dominant for the rest of the season, and make a run at the Cy if Ree falters.

NL CY:

Our picks:

Johan Santana (3.41, 65/17, 74)
Jake Peavy (2.91, 60/20, 59)
Brandon Webb (2.69, 72/20, 84)
John Smortz (2.00, 36/8, 27)
Carlos Zambrano (2.33, 55/24, 81)
Dan Haren (3.75, 60/11, 70)

Current leaders:

Webb
Zambrano
Tim Lincecum (2.33, 76/28, 70)
Edinson Volquez (1.46, 83/36, 68)

Comments:

Lots of starters pitching well in the NL this year, including all the guys we picked. Smoltz is the only guy who's pretty much out of the running, and that only due to injury. Peavy is on the DL as well, but if he misses just 3-4 starts with his elbow problem, and comes back strong, he's got plenty of time to make up ground. The guy who's the most fun to watch is Rincecum. He's about 5'11 160 and throws a 96 mph fastbarr with a firthy curve and change.

AL HR reader:

Our picks:

Arex "Pay-Rod" Rodriguez (7)
David Ortizzre (13)
Carlos Pena (10)
Jim Thome (10)

Current leaders:

Hamilton (14)
Quentin (14)

Comments:

A lot of improbable names atop the AL leaderboard. The top 6 are Hamilton, Quentin, Adrian Beltre, Jason Giambi, Jhonny Peralta, and Ortiz. Craziness. All of our guys certainly have a shot at finishing the year with the most bombs, although they'll need to stay healthy.


NL HR reader:

Our picks:

Ryan Howard (15)
Prince Fielder (8)
Ryan Braun (15)
Matt Horriday (8)

Current leaders:

Utley (20)
Berkman (17)
Dan Uggla (16)


Comments:

Again, a lot more slugging going on in the NL. I'm well out in front on this bet. Howard continues to strike out a lot, but he still hits bombs. Ryan Braun has recovered from a little bit of a sophomore slump to start the season. Brackchips might want to trying taking Prince out for some burgers.

AL K reader:

Our picks:

Scott Kazmir (38)
Erik Bedard (48)
Josh Beckett (75)
C.C. Sabathia (74)

Current leaders:

Vazquez (77)
Beckett
Sabathia
Halladay (71)



Comments:

Really all about health for Bedard and Kazmir. They're doing fine in terms of strikeouts per inning, they just haven't thrown enough innings. But the guy really lighting it up is Beckett. Although Beckett missed some time at the beginning of the season, he's still second with 75 K in only 67 IP. He's gotta be the favorite to win it right now.

NL K reader:

Our picks:

Jake Peavy (60)
Johan Santana (65)
Carlos Zambrano (55)
Brandon Webb (64)

Current leaders:

Volquez (83)
Lincecum (76)


Comments:

A couple of young guns leading the NL in punchouts. Zambrano's strikeouts are down a good bit this year, but he has stayed effective by limiting his walks as well. Peavy has been as good as ever, but given his injury, he probably won't get enough innings to compete.

AL Pennant:
Creverand Indians (25-31)
New York Yankees (28-28)
Boston Red Sox (35-24)
Ros Angeres Angers (33-24)
Detroit Tigers (23-32)
Toronto Brue Jays (31-27)

Current leaders:

East: Tampa Bay Rays (35-22)
Central: Chicago White Sox (30-26)
West: LA Angels (33-24)
Wild Card: Boston Red Sox (35-24)



Comments:

The AL is just crazy this year. The Rays and the ChiSox? Again, we would have drafted pretty deep before we got to those teams. And who's nipping at the Sox heels? Not the Indians. Not the Tigers. The Twins. It's apparently no fluke, either, as the Rays and Sox have healthy run differentials. The team that's most fortunate to hold their current spot is instead the Angels, who are only third in the AL West by Baseball Prospectus' third-order wins. So look out for the Athletics to take charge down the stretch, especially if they can get Harden, Chavez, and Thomas healthy at the same time.

NL Pennant:
New York Mets (27-27)
Phiraderphia Phirries (33-25)
Chicago Cubs (36-21)
Atranta Braves (29-28)
Ros Angeres Dodgers (27-28)
Cororado Rockies (20-37)

Current leaders:

East: Phirries
Central: Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks (31-25)
Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals (34-24)

Comments:

The only team really out of it here is last year's champs, the Rockies. The Braves have played much better than their record suggests. They're actually ahead in the East by third-order wins. The Cubs have been looking great. I doubt the Cards and 'Stros can end up contending for the Wild Card, much less for the division crown. The Cubs definitely have the strongest hold on a playoff spot.

WS Winner:

New York Mets
New York Yankees
Creverand Indians
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Ros Angeres Angers

Comments:

Well, the first step to winning the World Series is getting into the playoffs, and the Cubs and Sox are the only teams here that are virtually guaranteed to do that. Once you get into the playoffs, it's kind of a crapshoot, but it's hard to bet against the Sox with Beckett at the front end of their rotation. In a short series, having starting pitchers that can dominate the other team is a definite advantage, and though Zambrano has pitched well this year, I'd take Beckett. However note that anybody on this list, as well as the lists for pennant-winners, immediately gets probably 3-4 wins added to their season total if they sign Barry Bonds to either DH or play in their outfield. That could easily be the different between making the playoffs and not. You're telling me that's not worth a few million bucks and a media circus?

Random props:

A's wins vs. Nats wins (A's: 29-27, Nats: 24-33)

Two words: SHIP IT.

Padres attendance (avg. 28.630) vs. Nats attendance (avg. 29,142)

Brackchips as got the read in this one...I thought that the Padres might be in the thick of things towards the end of the year, and this would boost attendance, but it doesn't look like that will be the case. With the weather warming up in DC, this will probably be an easy W for Brackchips.

Enjoy the games, folks. Try to get out to your local ballpark as many times as you can. It'll be offseason before you know it.

-BRUECHIPS