April 12, 2010

THIN! (Part 18)

Haven't had a THIN post in quite sometime and felt that this hand simply could not be overlooked for a THIN nomination. Been grinding out NLHE quite a bit with decent success, one thing I have noticed along with Bruechips is that NOBODY FOLDS anymore. NOBODY. From one pair to friggin 8th pair...it has become quite difficult to pry people off any of any semblance of a hand. It's friggin nuts. I guess it is just part of the educational evolution part of NLHE as the players get progressively better and the fish pool dwindles. The players that will succeed need to continuously find new ways to exploit their opponents. 3betting/cbetting by even bad players is becoming pretty standard - alot of your edge will come in later streets where players are uncomfortable/unsure as to the best play.

Enter THIN...lol. Provided you can VB your hands better than you opponents - you will be ahead of the game. Being able to VB later streets as your villain's range becomes more polarized will maximize your WR.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/636256
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $202.85
UTG+1: $263.25
MP: $200.00
CO: $202.50
Hero (BTN): $490.20
SB: $100.95
BB: $55.55

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Ks Jc
2 folds, MP raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, 2 folds
(this call is not completely standard - i think a mix of calling, folding and 3b'ing are reasonable. One thing to note is that we are 7 handed. The reason I chose calling here is I felt I might get played back if I 3b here since I had been pretty aggro pre IP, I felt I could outplay him on most flops.)

Flop: ($17.00) 2h Kh 3s (2 players)
MP bets $11, Hero calls $11
(Boom goes the dynamite? Good flop but not necessarily I feel super comfortable raise getting it in with. Raise folding would be retarted for obvious reasons. I call the standard cbet - with the intention to take him into town (value town that is!) if I sense weakness on later street.)

Turn: ($39.00) 7c (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $26, MP calls $26
(Pretty much the nut card for me that does not improve my hand...when he x's I'm quite confident that I am best here, I am betting for value but it would be REALLY gross if I got XR here, honestly idk what I would have done. Maybe shit my pants and reshoved, but that is probably influenced by the fact that I know the outcome of the hand.)

River: ($91.00) 9s (2 players)
MP checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $446.20 all in, MP requests TIME, MP calls $156 all in
(After he xc's the turn I can be pretty confident that he does not have a one pair+ hand that beats me. I really think that AK, KQ would have tried to sqz out some more value on the turn when the brick rolls off. It is obvious he is trying to get to SD without putting any more money in the pot. When I am trying to figure out what is the best to bet, I realized that I could very easily make my hand look like a bluff with an overbet shove...and given that NOBODY folds these days I figured it was the best play. I felt that KQ was the ONLY hand that I would be value cutting myself on - but against worse one pair K hands and hands like TT-QQ, I could pwn him hard.)

Final Pot: $403.00
MP mucks Td Kc
Hero shows Ks Jc (a pair of Kings)
Hero wins $400.00
(Rake: $3.00)



The Poker Meister said...

Have you guys been playing Rush at all? What is your experience? I think Rush has made a lot of players a lot better in a short amount of time. I know, for example, that I am a MUCH better hand reader now that I was before January.

Memphis MOJO said...

It's cool that the shove looked weaker than a pot-sized bet.

Fuel55 said...

I like this OBFV since a missed flush draw isnt calling anything anyway.

spritpot said...

Meister - I've dabbled in RUSH but Brue has been ALL OVER rush, I'm sure he will follow up. Why do you think players have gotten better in a short time? Bc of the sheer volume of hands and the inability to rely heavily on stats?


The Poker Meister said...

Yes; I think a bit of both, in fact. There is the sheer volume aspect - particularly in the inter- non-stats period when HEM / PT3 did not have the updates to support Rush live hand stats... people (me included) were forced to put ranges on villains and narrow down their holdings based on bet sizing, in the dark. It was a great equalizer and forced you to sink or swim; either you'd lose a lot of money in a short amount of time or you adapted. The same holds true now, as far as the sink or swim Darwinian approach... simple the fish cannot survive in the Rush format, because they are losing more money, more often. Perhaps, coming around full circle, Rush is Darwin theory at its best, and only the "cream of the crop" players are remaining at the tables... because the games there have gotten *MUCH* tighter. I've seen people fold KK pre-flop (I wasn't ever able to do that before, for example), there's not nearly as much aggressiveness without the stone nuts (people aren't stacking off AA for fear of flopped sets, etc. All of the above is at all of the levels I've played - 25NL - 100NL. For sure, it's exploitable. However, you're exploiting nits, not fish.

Danny said...

This is a great post, I love reading your commentary too. Look forward to the next post.

donald said...

where's the update for this month. its true people stopped folding years ago lol. its very in vogue these days.