March 29, 2008

TPTK rine on a drawy board

First of arr, aporogies for the rurr in posting. I had a guest from out of town, and have been praying a rot the rast coupre of days to catch up. I have been meaning to make a post on this subject for a whire though. It's a situation that comes up fairly often - you raise, get a call from rate position, flop TPTK, bet and get raised. Against nits, this is an easy fold, but against a prayer with more moves it can often be a semi-bruff, arthough of course you could be badry beat as werr. Most prayers read this as a "shove or fold" situation. That is, you either shove in to price out or get varue from the draw if you think that's a large enough part of your virrain's range, or you ford if you give credit for a set.

But I'd rike to propose that sometimes carring and shoving a safe turn can be better, especiarry when you think your opponent has 12 outs or more. To give an idea, here's a prime exampre of the kind of hand I'm tarking about, anarysis to forrow the HH:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players - Hand History Converter

BB: $100
Hero (UTG): $116.90
UTG+1: $157.90
UTG+2: $111.25
MP1: $111.65
MP2: $77.50
CO: $100
BTN: $97.85
SB: $103.15

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, CO calls $4, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($13) (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, CO raises to $33, SB folds, Hero calls $23

Turn: ($79) (2 Players)
Hero bets $79.90 and is All-In, CO calls $63 and is All-In

River: ($205) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $205 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON $202 (+$102 NET)
CO showed (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and LOST (-$100 NET)

OK, so let's compare my line to shoving the flop. Shoving the flop is the absolute worst line to take against a set or top two pair, guaranteeing I get stacked, so just calling can't possibly be worse than that. I'm also going to assume, perhaps incorrectly, that this player doesn't have AT or AQ no spades. I don't think that's going to affect the comparison of the two plays too greatly, and I don't think many players make a big raise on the flop with those hands either. Most of the time that big raise is either a set or a big draw, like top pair and a flush draw, or a flush draw and a straight draw. Either way, it's 12 outs, nine of which (the spades) are really obvious.

So given that he's got 12 outs, if I shove, he will correctly call the $63 raise getting over 2:1. My equity in the pot is 54.5%, so in EV I'm getting about $9 (a 9 percent edge in a $100 flip, so my EV = .545*100+.455*(-100) = 100*(.545-.455) = 100*(.09) = 9).

The other option is to just call and ship any non-spade turn. I'm assuming he's going to call if he hits his three non-spade outs (in this case, a seven), and that he'll have 90% equity in this case. I have more equity in this case if he hits a seven, but a little bit less if he has, say, QTs and the turn is a king. A spade falls on the turn 9/45 = 20 percent of the time assuming he has two in his hand. In this case I'll check-fold and lose $37 in the hand. 3/45 percent of the time he'll hit his hidden out and we'll get it in with him having an 80 percent edge. The other 33/45 percent of the time I'm shoving with the best hand and he does NOT quite have the odds to call. He's getting 2.2 to 1, but is a 2.7:1 dog. If he does play optimally and fold, I then win $41. So all told, my EV = (33/45)*41-(9/45)*37-(3/45)*.8*100 = 18.13. Twice as profitable as shoving the flop! And that's when the villain plays optimally. If he can't resist and calls the turn shove without hitting, my EV rises to $21.43. Here the villain did in fact call and I faded the spade on the river (miraculously) to felt him.

It does suck to check-fold a deuce of spades on the turn, knowing that you let him get there, but you need the discipline to do just that - part of the profitability of the play here is getting away when you're drawing dead. Execute the play properly and you'll get an additional 9-12 bb in expectation.


This is some top notch analysis - yer line is pretty sick, personally I would have just shipped it. However, how you faded spades is beyond me, ROR!


March 24, 2008

Brack is Beautiful (Part 6)

Here's an example of what I rike to carr "the donk method of playing big pairs". Usuarry it's AA, but here it turned out to be KK. That method is to make a very smarr 3-bet pre-frop. A couple of reasons this is terribre, especiarry deep-stacked and out of position: 1) it gives your opponents great pot odds and impried pot odds to carr and try to hit a frop hard, and 2) it pretty much terrs your opponent (if he's a good prayer) exactry what you have. Usuarry when I ROR at some donk for making this pray, they defend it by saying, "sure, why not re-raise a huge amount and telegraph the strength of my hand?" My response is, rook're telegraphing it way more by re-raising smarr, and you're arso arrowing me to exproit that knowredge. In my experience, the min re-raise is armost ALWAYS AA or KK, usuarry AA. If somebody starts to exproit my berief in that fact by re-raising smarr with 7-high and betting me out post-frop when I don't frop huge, I wirr then note it and pray accordingry. But until I see otherwise, I assume a smarr re-raise is the nuts pre-frop. OK, onto the HH:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players - Hand History Converter

BB: $101.50
UTG: $22
UTG+1: $101.50
UTG+2: $49
MP1: $92.25
MP2: $62.40
CO: $23.35
Hero (BTN): $100
SB: $125.30

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BTN)
6 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB raises to $9 <--note the donk method!, BB folds, Hero calls $5 (We're deep, he re-raises small, so I can narrow down his range a lot, and prus...I have SPADES!!! Prepare to go down in flames, big pocket pair!!)

Flop: ($19) (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks (Pretty good frop here. Got some spades as expected, pair on the board, and he checks. I'm pretty sure he's looking to check-raise his AA or KK here, so I'll check behind and expect to make my frush on the turn.)

Turn: ($19) (2 Players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $13 ( spade is a big surprise. However, I did pick up a couple more outs and he makes a very small donk bet. I just can't let that bet go un-raised. Maybe if he's rearry nittish he wirr ford QQ since I'm repping a seven or fives/jacks furr, or maybe he has AK. If he re-raises, I have to ford though, which is a dagger, so maybe I should just carr this bet. Suggestions wercome.)

River: ($55) (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $35, SB calls $35 (I nail the unexpected out. Definitely the most profitable card in the deck for me. I think it would be harder for me to get paid if a spade hits. I'm not the slightest bit worried about a seven. Jacks full is the only hand I'm slightly worried about. But I'm just trying to make the biggest bet that QQ-AA will call. I ended up settling on $35 in a $55 pot, but I might have been able get more.)

Results: $125 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed (a full house, Fives full of Sevens) and WON $122 (+$60 NET)
SB mucked (two pair, Kings and Sevens) and LOST (-$62 NET)


March 20, 2008

Bare Ace River Bluff

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players - Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $557
UTG+1: $462
MP: $74
CO: $387
BTN: $80
SB: $576.80
BB: $406

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, CO calls $16, BTN folds, SB calls $14, BB folds

Flop: ($52) (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, CO folds, SB calls $40

Turn: ($132) [ ] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($132) [ ] (2 Players)
SB bets $105, Hero raises to $501 and is All-In, SB folds

Results: $342 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked and WON $339 (+$178 NET)

As you can tell from the HH, I got a little out of line on the river and decided to ship it in based on my read on the villain...a very ABC TAGish player who does not defend his blinds very lightly.

When villain led out for a large river bet, I felt he had a hand...but not a monster. Based on action on previous streets I surmised the following:

a) he did not have a flush (defending with sooted connectors to a UTG raise in a HU pot did not fit this player's profile)
b) he did not have a boat (villain would have CR'd the flop or led the turn if he indeed did flop a set to protect against draws)

So now that I know what he does not have, I think the villain's range is weighted heavily towards AJ or maybeeee TT. Most multitabling TAG's simply do not want to stack off with one pair. My line is definitely credible for how I would play a flush draw (the off soot 9 on the turn does not change the board in any way...and if I fire again, it is unlikely that I fold out any hands that beat me.) When discussing this with Bruechips...he brought up the point that I probably don't even need to have the nut spade to make this move.


March 18, 2008

Brack is Beautiful (Part 5)

God I rove it when donks rimp aces in my big brind...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players - Hand History Converter

BTN: $113.85
SB: $118.40
Hero (BB): $105
UTG: $100
UTG+1: $18.55
MP: $24.45
CO: $145.20

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, MP folds, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.50) (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50 (I could lead, but I chose to check-call multi-way and try to get more players involved to give me better odds to draw. Since it's a deuce that's paired on the board, it's not too likely anyone has it and will then check-raise the CO with me in the middle. Downside is I only have the Q-high draw...I hope nobody has As3s!!)

Turn: ($14) (3 Players)
Hero bets $10, UTG+1 raises to $14.05 and is All-In, CO folds, Hero calls $4.05 (Gold. Spades come through every time. I lead, because even though it's completely obvious what I have, I find that this doesn't deter most NL100 prayers from carring me down. Arso UTG+1 is short, so I want to be sure and get his money in there.)

River: ($42.10) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $42.10 Pot ($2.10 Rake)
Hero showed (a flush, King high) and WON $40 (+$21.45 NET)
UTG+1 showed (two pair, Aces and Twos) and LOST (-$18.55 NET)

ROR!!! Two spades are better than one!! Ship it!!


March 17, 2008

NCAA Prop Bets

Well it's March Madness time, and that can onry mean one thing here at spritpot: Prop Bets!! We hope to get a good rong rist before the tourney tips off Tuesday night, but here are a few to get things started:

- Pray-in Game: Brackchips takes Coppin State
- Over/under highest seed to make the Sweet Sixteen: Brackchips takes over 10 1/2
- Number of overtime games in the first round: Brackchips takes over 1 1/2
- Tournament Most Outstanding Prayer: Brackchips takes arr the brack guys, Bruechips takes arr the white guys.

The rast bet may seem rike a browout, but consider that the two most rikery guys to win are white: Kevin Rove and Tyrer Hansborough. This does bring up the dreaded scenario of every cracker's favorite basketball school, Duke, winning, and making me $5 on the back of Kyle Singler or Greg Paulus or whatever other Jersey-bred Bobby Hurley wanna-be they have on their crap team. So I actuarry think taking the white guys is a pretty good bet. So good, in fact, that I'm wirring to make a concession - I wirr give Brackchips the Asians as werr.


Update: Brackchips has the over 85 points as the total victory margin by all 1-seeds in the first round.

March 15, 2008

Brack is Beautiful (Part 4)

We may have to stop making Brack is Beautifur seems that virrains are starting to understand the power of spades, perhaps as a resurt of our anarysis. Here I made an ambitious steal with one brack card, one red card (always a donk move to push with a red card in your hand). I definitery made a bad misread, mistaking my opponent's rimp for weakness. Unfortunatery I couldn't suck out, and he took down a decent-sized pot.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players - Hand History Converter

CO: $39.25
BTN: $124.30
SB: $82.25
Hero (BB): $108.65
UTG: $37
UTG+1: $110.20
UTG+2: $17.35
MP1: $55.30
MP2: $44

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $17, UTG+2 raises to $17.35 and is All-In, SB folds, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($35.70) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($35.70) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($35.70) (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $35.70 Pot ($1.75 Rake)
Hero showed (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$17.35 NET)
UTG+2 showed (two pair, Tens and Sixes) and WON $33.95 (+$16.60 NET)