Sprit Pot! (Part 1)

Sometimes you get it in bad and the board saves half of you. Given the name of this brog, how could we not honor these situations with a series of their own? I wirr start it off with this nugget:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $124.40
UTG+1: $244.95
UTG+2: $100.90
MP1: $152.10
Hero (MP2): $120.95
CO: $100.90
BTN: $69.55
SB: $99
BB: $98

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $13, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $9.50, Hero calls $9.50 (I will re-raise the original raise frequently, but I thought he was pretty tight, plus he's UTG+1, his stack is large, so I decided I'd just call with position and see what the flop brings. When the SB re-raised, I was definitely not loving my hand, since he's pretty tight, too. But when UTG+1 called, I was priced in to set mine with everyone being full-stacked.)

Flop: ($40) J Q K (3 Players) (Uhh..werr...I hit my set...ror!...but obviously this isn't my ideal flop. I think the SB's three-betting range preflop is pretty much AA and KK. I doubt even QQ or AKs are in there. I definitely considered laying this hand down, but I just couldn't do it. Given that there's a K on the board, AA becomes twice as likely as KK. While I think he might just check-fold AA in this situation, I just can't fold a set after I paid pre-flop to mine for one.)
SB bets $35, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $107.95 and is All-In, SB calls $51 and is All-In

Turn: ($212) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


River: ($212) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Results: $212 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed J J (a straight, King high) and WON $104.50 (+$5.50 NET)
SB showed K K (a straight, King high) and WON $104.50 (+$5.50 NET)

Runner runner!!! Ship half of it!!!!

BRUECHIPS

When I first discussed this hand with BRUECHIPS I was actually in favor of FOLDING bottom set in this spot. I'm just your regular donk, but given the info on the virrain, his range is PRECISELY 3 hands - AA, KK, and AKss. Yer behind two of three of these hands (KK has you PWNED, and AKss will very rikery make him a royar frush by the river). Also - AA has 6 clean outs vs JJJ. Bottom set vs his range is fold here my friend...but you lucksacked yer way into a sprit. Its VERY rare to be in a spot where folding a set is the correct play, but given the villain's range and the board texture...you can find a fold.

I would compare folding a set on the flop to be similar to folding KK pf. Its almost impossible to do (and rarely an correct play) but if have a very strong read on your opponent - go with your read and fold! (or shove and try to suckout!)

BRACKCHIPS

Yea, I can see the rationale for folding. It all depends on how likely he is to have AA or AKs in this spot (or QQ for that matter). Say you think he plays AA or AKs this way half the time. There are 3 AKs combos possible, and 6 AA combos, and only 3 KK combos. Since he's only playing AA and AKs this way half the time, that's effectively 4.5 combos. So most of the time I'm ahead, and should try and get money in, especially if he's gonna call my shove with AA and AKs. If you think he doesn't lead out that strong with AKs or AA ever, then you can fold.

BRUECHIPS

Continuation Betting

The continuation bet is a major weapon in the arsenal of any aggressive player. After raising pre-frop, you continue to represent a big hand by betting the frop, whether you hit or not. Whire I think arways continuation betting is better than never continuation-betting, it's good to be able to recognize when to check down and save yourself a few dorrars.

Poker videos and books suggest you evaruate the "frop texture" before c-betting. I arways got a rittre uncomfortable when I heard that because I had no idea what the eff it meant. But I'm starting to get better at it. Here are two different hands, both in murti-way pots, where I had very different hands on very different boards.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BRUECHIPS (MP2): $130
CO: $57.35
BTN: $106.30
SB: $99.20
BB: $114.50
UTG: $79.15
UTG+1: $17
MP1: $102.15

Pre-Flop: 8 A dealt to BRUECHIPS (MP2)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, BRUECHIPS raises to $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3, UTG calls $3 (This raise in definitely on the light side for me. Also I would usually add $.50 or $1 to my raise size because of the pre-flop limper. But playing a few tables at once, sometimes you don't spot a limp whne it's there. With the number of calls I got, I will definitely have to proceed cautiously, especially with one of them having position on me.)

Flop: ($16.50) K 3 2 (4 Players) (As flops go, this is a great one to bet at, for a few reasons. First, a big card and two little cards. The big card scares middle pocket pairs, and the low cards means not as many sets or middle pairs for your opponents. Second, not too many draws. Sure somebody could have 54s or maybe A5s or something, but compared to most boards, this is a pretty dry one. My opponents will pretty much need a king to continue. Third, it's king-high. When you raise preflop, most opponents immediately put you on AK, since it's a very common hand to raise with. Perhaps paradoxically, low- to mid-stakes opponents love to see flops with any ace, particularly if suited. The king-high flop is perfect because they put you on AK and fold, say, 77, and they are less likely to have called you preflop with a hand that includes a king. So while my A-high with runner-runner straight and flush draws isn't a great hand, and I'm in a multi-way pot, this flop is too good not to make a stab at. I do bet slightly less than usual, just because almost any bet is just asking the question, "do you have a king?", and I'd like to find out as cheaply as possible.)

BB checks, UTG checks, BRUECHIPS bets $10, 3 folds

Results: $16.50 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
BRUECHIPS mucked 8 A and WON $15.70 (+$11.70 NET)

Here's the opposite situation:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $116.05
SB: $205.65
BB: $100
UTG: $43.30
UTG+1: $106.95
UTG+2: $18.50
MP1: $64.85
MP2: $96.40
CO: $42.95

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB calls $5, UTG folds, MP1 calls $5, CO calls $5 - (I'm on the button with 3 limpers in front and a nice pocket pair, so I want to punish them by making a nice hefty raise. I could even go to $7 or $7.50 here. With all the calls, I'm going to proceed very cautiously. Also notice how all of the villains in the hand, with the exception of the BB, started the hand with less than half a stack.)

Flop: ($25.50) 7 6 9 (4 Players) - (This flop is REALLY gross. Sure, I have an overpair, but in a four-way pot, what good is it? I'm going to get check-raised by one of these short-stacks a LOT of the time, and I'll be pot committed if I make a decent-sized continuation bet. I could pray I'm in a race against 98 or something, but there's no hand I could be up against that I am really way ahead of. MAYBE T9. It kind of sucks to give everybody a free card on this draw-heavy board, but the shorties are going all the way with spades or a straight draw anyway. TT is just not good often enough on this board in a four-way pot for me to really play the hand aggressively. I did a Pokerstove on TT here vs. three other essentially random hands, with all the true crap like non-suited non-connected low cards taken out, and TT clocked in at 40% equity.)
BB checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($25.50) 3 (4 Players) (Innocuous looking card. If it's checked around to me, I might go ahead and bet at it since I have much more equity against the draws now with only one card to come.)
BB bets $21, MP1 folds, CO raises to $36.95 and is All-In, Hero folds, BB calls $15.95 (This is a really obvious fold)

River: ($99.40) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Results: $99.40 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB showed 3 3 (three of a kind, Threes) and LOST (-$42.95 NET)
CO showed 8 T (a straight, Jack hig) and WON $96.40 (+$53.45 NET) (Turns out I was drawing almost dead on the flop. If I bet, I double him up.)

The moral of that hand for me is, sometimes you gotta give free cards. Even though there's a decent chance my hand is good, and pretty much every turn card is going to improve somebody else's hand, don't be so afraid of somebody sucking out on you that you end up committing yourself with marginal one-pair hands.

BRUECHIPS

I like the overall analysis on the tale of two hands/board here...let me go ahead and chime in:

Hand 1 - I like the cbet despite missing, but since you pray so godaymned TIGHT - it wouldn't surprise me if you folded out middle/bottom set...as I'm putting you on KKK pretty much everytime. Yer so daymned tight I'm folding AA out of position to you unless I have the A of SPADES!)

Hand 2 - Nasty check on that frop. Top notch. Way to make fun of me (and my previous post) and how I can't fold my overpair on a bad rooking frop. Let us not forget despite having an overpair to the board, both your cards are RED, which pretty much seals your fate for losing this hand, muck it!

BRACKCHIPS

If by "fold middle set" you mean "4-bet shove with A2 of spades", then I think you've described how you'd play that hand pretty well vs. me...ROR!!!

BRUECHIPS

Shoving the River

I've made a couple of posts about betting the river already, so I figured I'd round it out with this hand:

$0.50/$1 - No LimitHold'em

*** STACKS ***

MP1 ($42.65)
MP2 ($101.05)
BRUECHIPS ($114)
BRUECHIPS posts the big blind of $1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BRUECHIPS [Td 7d]
MP1 calls $1
MP2 calls $1
BRUECHIPS checks

*** FLOP *** [Kd Tc 2d] - (Very big flop for my hand. I lead out here to start to build a pot in case I improve, and to take it down if nobody has anything. I don't want to check and have somebody make a set of fives or something on the turn, or let somebody with a better T show down to win the pot.)

BRUECHIPS bets $3
MP1 folds
MP2 calls $3 - (Not a terrible result. I have this player at 27/8/0.8. His low AF means I'm not too uncomfortable playing out of position. The only thing I'm worried about is a better diamond draw, because that could lose me a bunch of money. But more likely he's got KJ, KQ, or QJ. Maybe AJ on occasion.)

*** TURN *** [Kd Tc 2d] [As] - (The ace is a scare card for him if he's got a King with a Q or J kicker, so I'll make another bet and try to get him off it. Also by betting I can "set the price" of my draw. $7 isn't a bad price to pay in a $10 pot to see a river card with a pair and flush draw. I could see an argument for checking here as well, though, since the $7 might not fold out KQ or KJ, and he would probably check it behind and give me a free draw.)

BRUECHIPS bets $7
MP2 raises to $17 - (Given this player's stats, he's got a very strong hand here every time. If he's got A-high diamonds, I'm in big trouble. But I think he'd just call with that hand on the turn, and I think me might have raised it PF. Other options are AT and maybe occasionally a slow-played set of deuces. But with QJ right in the middle of his limping range and having just made the nuts, I think it's what he has a LOT of the time. I'm just getting 3:1 in pot odds, so not enough to call. But if he has the nut straight, I am calling in hopes that he won't be able to lay it down to a huge bet on the river bet. I just hope his QJ isn't of diamonds!!)
BRUECHIPS calls $10

*** RIVER *** [Kd Tc 2d As] [Qd] - (Prettiest card in the deck. Maybe the J of diamonds is better because it eliminates AdJd while I've already eliminated AdQd because he'd raise it pre-flop. But it's great, not only because it gives me a flush, but I now know he doesn't have QdJd. The other thing here is that I don't think he's gonna call a decent-sized bet with two pair or even bottom set. The straights and flushes out there are just staring him in the face. But a player with his stats is going to have a hard time folding nut straights. Time to go for MAX value and shove it ALL in!!!)

BRUECHIPS bets $79
MP2 has requested TIME
MP2 calls $79

*** SHOW DOWN ***

BRUECHIPS wins the pot ($198.50) with a flush, King high
MP2 mucked [Jd Qc] - a straight, Ace high - (PWNED for value!!!!)

That's how to bet on the river, sucka!!!

BRUECHIPS

Folding overpairs

Here's the action...I will follow up with some commentary after the HH. To all our loyal (and non-loyal readers) - thank you for putting up with our crappy HH descriptions, from here on out we will use a converter for your viewing preasure!

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $497
BTN: $1,000
SB: $990
BB: $588
Hero (UTG): $1,898.30
UTG+1: $988.50
MP1: $169.35
MP2: $525.50

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $35, UTG+1 calls $35, 4 folds, SB calls $30, BB calls $25

Flop: ($140) 3 2 5 (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $125, UTG+1 raises to $325, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1,863.30 and is All-In, UTG+1 calls $628.50 and is All-In

Turn: ($2,047) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($2,047) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $2,047 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K K (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$988.50 NET)
UTG+1 showed 5 5 (three of a kind, Fives) and WON $2,044 (+$1,055.50 NET)

Well as you can tell from the HH, I stacked off with an overpair to the board here. Just a REALLY TERRIBLE play on my part. Atrocious.

Prefrop - pretty standard raise. Flop - I really HATED that flop when it came down with 4 way action. There are a PLETHORA of hands that have me crushed or drawing dead. However, I chose to cbet to see where I was at. The mistake that I made was NOT deciding to any fold to any heat BEFORE making my cbet. When you think ahead a step or two, it makes things MUCH easier. I ended up getting too attached to my overpair when UTG+1 raised my cbet...and I paid the price and stacked off. Its really not that big of a fold here, the villain was not a very aggressive player...its a perfect spot for him to be set mining, and when he commits a HUGE portion of his stack on the flop, he's going all the way. He has TT-QQ in this spot like NEVER. Against this villain, I can really only beat a bluff or a OESD.

The majority of profits in NLHE come from your BIG HANDS (sets, frushes, straights, FH's, etc), not one pair hands. Learn to fold big pairs post flop and TRUST your gut.

BRACKCHIPS

Arso, I don't know why you didn't mention this arready, but you had NO spades. Even though he onry has one spade, and it's a five, he's pretty much a favorite the whole way. Presto is GOLD! No way you're drawing dead though. Even if he has A4 for a flopped straight, you're still quad-mining...although the odds aren't quite there....

BRUECHIPS

Thanks for Not Stacking Me, Bro! (Part 1)

In the spirit of blog continuity, we will be running several series. This will be the first installment of 'Thanks for Not Stacking Me, Bro!', in which we will show our gratitude towards villains for slow-playing their monsters and extracting minimum value.

Here's a hand I played against a 17/5/0.75 villain. It's kind of a counterpoint to the 98s hand I posted about earlier where I missed a bet on the river.

*** STACKS ***
BRUECHIPS ($101.35)
UTG ($98.50)
BRUECHIPS posts the big blind of $1
 
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BRUECHIPS [7c 6d]
UTG calls $1
MP1 calls $1
MP2 calls $1
SB calls $0.50
BRUECHIPS checks

*** FLOP *** [6s 6h Jc] - (Obviously, looks like a great flop. No reason to get fancy here, just lead right out and start to build a pot.)

BRUECHIPS bets $4
UTG calls $4 - (I'm pretty happy about this call. His UTG limping range definitely includes all the pairs 77-TT, as well as a bunch of jacks, probably AJ-JTs and AJ-KJ or QJo. 56s rounds out the range of his hands that I beat. The hands I'm worried about are A6s - players at NL100 LOVE to see flops with suited aces, no matter their position - and JJ. His UTG PFR% is less than 1, so he's definitely limping JJ. With an AF under 1, he's probably flat calling ALL of these hands.)
MP1 folds
MP2 folds
SB folds

*** TURN *** [6s 6h Jc] [9s]  - (Somewhat of a blank, only hand that this card improves is 99. No reason not to lead out again.)
BRUECHIPS bets $8
UTG calls $8  - (Now I'm beginning to get somewhat wary. I'm kind of no longer worried about A6s, since I think he would raise the turn with that hand, with the board starting to look more suited and coordinated. I think he would fold 77-88 and maybe TT at this point. I could see him continuing with a J, and flat calling with 99 for a turned full house.)

*** RIVER *** [6s 6h Jc 9s] [8h] - (Now I'm behind 88 as well, if he did call the turn with it. I'm not crazy about my check here, for the same reasons my check in the 89s hand was really bad. I should try to get value out of a jack. Against this player, I could bet and easily fold to a raise. I think when I play it this way, he checks behind all the hands I beat and only bets the hands I don't, which is exactly what happened here.)
BRUECHIPS checks 
UTG bets $12 - (He bets half-pot. This is a crying call, but I can't fold trips for that amount. Hopefully he has 65s and we can chop.)
BRUECHIPS calls $12

*** SHOW DOWN ***
UTG shows [Jd Js] a full house, Jacks full of Sixes
BRUECHIPS mucks
UTG wins the pot ($50.35) with a full house, Jacks full of Sixes

Aaaand....thanks for not stacking me bro! I guess I can see flat calling the flop with three players yet to act. They could raise and build a big multi-way pot for you. On the other hand, a lot of turn cards kill your action. Any overcard is going to scare someone with a pair of jacks, or a middle pp. So I would favor a raise here to try and build a pot big enough to stack someone with trip sixes by the river, but a flat call on the flop is defensible, particularly at an aggressive table. But you HAVE to raise the turn to build a pot big enough so that you can get all-in or close to it with a river bet. As played, he flopped top boat vs. trips and won only 25 bbs. Terrible.  

BRUECHIPS

Why I Think Check-Raising is Usually a Bad Play, and When I Think It's a Good Play

I'd like to second Fuel's appreciation of the way BrackChips played his four rovery radies (btw, if you want to pray with four radies yourself, save up about $1 and terr Tiffany's mom to come over with three of her friends). A lot of players would try to check-raise the flop with this hand, or even with hands like 88-JJ or a diamond draw, with the intention of betting out AK or JJ. I think this is a really over-used play in No-Limit Hold 'Em.

In Limit, you often have to use the check-raise liberally. This is because you are only allowed bet a fixed amount, so if you want to get more money in on a particular street, somebody is going to have to bet so you can raise. This is particularly valuable in multi-way pots where you can force players between you and the bettor you're raising to call two bets. An example would be if you have AK UTG in a four-way pot, the board comes KT5 with two hearts. If you know the button is an aggressive player who will bet when checked to, you can check and raise him, forcing the players in the middle who may have flush or straight draws to call two bets cold, which really cuts down their pot odds. They may still call and draw out, of course, but at least you've made them pay to do it.

I'll argue later that I think the check-raised is best used in multi-way pots in No-Limit as well, but for now let's focus on the most common situation, heads-up action between a pre-flop raiser and an out of position caller. The standard play of the pre-flop raiser is to continuation bet virtually any flop. Knowing this, the out-of-position caller might raise that bet with a marginal hand such as a middle pair-ish type hand, or a naked flush or straight draw. When you do this, one of three things will happen:

1) Your opponent will fold. If your hand is marginal, that almost certainly means the hand he's folding is worse than yours, unless he's really tight (in which case he's not going to be raising and c-betting that often). So you won the hand, but your bet folded out a hand which is worse than yours. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, since you're out of position and playing the turn and river might be difficult if you just call. Also since your hand is marginal, your opponent probably has a few outs at least. Of the three things that can happen when you check-raise with a marginal hand, this is the best one.

2) Your opponent re-raises you. Well that's pretty scary. He raised before the flop, he bet when you checked on the flop, and now that you raised, he's still confident his hand is best. He could be bluffing. Maybe he's noticed you raising his c-bets a lot, and is now pushing AK. Possible. But even so, he probably has six outs. Or he could have you crushed. You don't want to get into the habit of getting all-in on the flop with middle pair or top pair weak kicker. So this is not a profitable situation for you.

3) Your opponent calls. This might be the worst of all. Now you're out of position on two more streets, you probably don't have the best hand, and even if you do, about half the deck is going to either improve his hand or allow him to bluff you. So say you check-raise the QQ7 board with 88 and get called. What are you going to do when the turn isn't an 8? The pot is already huge. Any reasonable bet commits you to the pot. You could try to make another attempt to bet out a bigger pair or a flush draw. But you're risking a lot to find out if he has an overpair, a Q, or a full house. So this is kind of a gross situation as well.

So of the three things that can happen, one is kind of marginally good. Another point I want to make about check-raising with a marginal hand: it's expensive. Say the cut-off raises to 4 bb and you call from the big blind. You check, he'll probably bet 7 bb or so. To make a decent check-raise, you'll have to put in 20 or so bb. That's 1/5 of a buy-in. Assuming it's never profitable for you when he re-raises or calls, you're going to have to make him fold at least 60% of the time for this to be a +EV play. In these spots, I favor a mix of leading, check-calling, and check-folding, depending on the opponent and board.

So what about check-raising with a monster? Well now you definitely don't want him to fold. So 1) from above is now the worst result. The advantage of check-raising as opposed to leading is that you get an extra bet from a hand like AK that will put in a c-bet but would not have called a lead (although many players would raise your lead there, which makes you more money). But monsters don't come around too often. When you hit them, you don't want to make a c-bet. You want to make a stack. A stack is so much bigger than a c-bet, when comparing the EV of plays in these spots, it's really going to come down to which play gives you the better chance of winning the other player's entire stack. If you check-raise and get called or re-raised, obviously that's great, since you get in more money on the flop, but when you're 100bb deep, three pottish bets in a pot that was raised preflop will get you there, too. But two probably won't. This brings me to my final indictment of the check-raise: Your ability to execute it depends on your opponent betting. If he checks behind, it's a disaster. If you're holding quad queens, you don't have to worry about being drawn out on too much. But not all monsters are so monstrous. Flushes and straights can be made to bust you. But even worse, you will not get full value from second-best hands. For instance, here's a hand I played recently vs. a tight player who was set-mining out of the big blind, and managed to win a total of $17 when he flopped a boat vs. an overpair. I kind of lucked out that a scary river card (for him) came, but regardless, there's no way he's stacking me on the river, unless I hit an A or a K to win.

$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em
BB ($82) posts the big blind of $1
BRUECHIPS ($140) in CO
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BRUECHIPS [Ad Ac]
BRUECHIPS raises to $4
BB calls $3

*** FLOP *** [Ks Kd 9d]
BB checks
Hero checks - (I know this player is a pretty tight 12-tabler and likes to check-raise big hands. I doubt he'll call a bet here with TT-QQ or any of the other hands I beat, AK and 99 are definitely hands he would be calling out of the BB with. I probably would have bet here if I didn't have the A of diamonds, because me having it really reduces the odds of him having a flush draw. He'd have to have Q-high diamonds or lower, which isn't too likely. So I'm going to check here, both for pot control and to hope to disguise my hand enough that I can get value from QQ-TT on later streets.)

*** TURN *** [Ks Kd 9d] [2h]
BB checks
BRUECHIPS bets $7 - (Safe turn card and he checks again, time to execute my plan of getting value from a smaller pp.)
BB raises to $17 - (Definitely not what I was hoping for against a player with a sub-1 AF. But I just can't fold AA to one bet here after checking the flop. I'm hoping to check down the river.)
BRUECHIPS calls $10

*** RIVER *** [Ks Kd 9d 2h] [2d] - (Not a great card, as the flush comes through, but not a bad card either, as it gets him to check down a better hand.)
BB checks
BRUECHIPS checks

*** SHOW DOWN ***
BB shows [9c 9h] a full house, Nines full of Kings
BRUECHIPS mucks
BB wins the pot ($40.40) with a full house, Nines full of Kings

Way to flop a full house and win a whopping $17, buddy! I guess he's scared of the river card because it gives AK a full house, but I think he's gotta bet 1/2 pot or so and hope to get value from a flush or AA. Maybe some players even pay off with QQ. If I had AK, I'd raise and he could pretty safely fold. But even if he does bet $20 and I call, still didn't get max value, and it really all came from the fact that the flop went check-check.

Even though this post is already really long, I'm going to make it longer by giving a situation where I would check-raise. When you're out of position in a multi-way pot with a big draw, I like the check raise, particularly when the original raiser is in early position. This is because the OR will likely c-bet, and players in middle positions might call, leaving more dead money in the pot when you try to race with your draw vs. an overpair. Here's an example, although in this case it didn't work as well as I had hoped because none of the players in middle position called:

$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em
*** STACKS ***
UTG ($100)
MP1 ($119)
MP2($150)
BRUECHIPS ($100)
BRUECHIPS posts the big blind of $1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BRUECHIPS [Jh Ah]
UTG raises to $3.50
MP1 calls $3.50
MP2 calls $3.50
BRUECHIPS calls $2.50 - (If there aren't calls from MP players, I'm folding this hand to an UTG raiser. I might even fold it here if it weren't suited. But getting more than 6-to-1 and every player in the hand full stacked, I'm going to give it a call and hope I can hit a flop hard.)

*** FLOP *** [6h Td Qh] - (I'd like to go ahead and get money in on the flop here. I'm out of position, so it's going to be hard for me to extract value if I hit my hand. Some of my outs are not clean, like a Th or an A, and the flush outs are really obvious, again making it hard for me to get value. The only card that really gives me a great chance of stacking somebody is a K. But on the other hand, getting a free card is definitely not a disaster. I'm pretty sure an UTG raiser is going to be firing at this board. Hopefully one of the MP guys will call and I can trap them in the middle. If I bet, I either fold everybody out, which is not terrible, or I get raised by the UTG guy and have to race JUST with him, without any additional dead money in the pot.)
BRUECHIPS checks
UTG bets $11 - (as planned)
MP1 folds
MP2 folds - (bummer)
BRUECHIPS raises to $40 - (I'm pretty sure he's not folding, although he could fold AK, JJ, or even AQ. I think a shove seems more like a draw and might be more likely to get a call from JJ and AQ, which I'd rather fold out. Obviously, if he just flat calls, I'm gonna have to shove any turn.)
UTG raises to $96.50, and is all in
BRUECHIPS calls $56.50, and is all in
UTG shows [Kd Ks] - (No problem with this result. I have 14 outs - two kings, three aces, nine hearts - for 48% equity. But I think I played this hand exactly right. Too bad I couldn't squeeze any of the MP guys with QJ or something like that, but them's the breaks. As for how UTG played the hand, I think it's not that bad to stack off with KK here, but he shouldn't expect to be a big favorite. My range here is pretty much AK,AT,JT,KJ,KT,J9,T9,98,87 of hearts, QTs, TT, and 66. His equity against that range is 33%. If I add AQ into my range, his equity jumps way up to 53% (remember, there are 16 AQ hands, only one KT of hearts), but it's pretty rare I'd show up with AQ here. MAYBE AQ of diamonds. But for the reasons listed above, I'd hate to try and check-raise AQ here. Anyway, since the skill part of the hand is over, no sense in showing you guys the turn and river...but let's just say that hearts do get there SOMETIMES, although I would prefer backdoor spades....)

BRUECHIPS

QUADZILLA

$2/$4 (9-handed)

*** PREFROP ***

BLACKCHIPS ($773) raises to $20 from UTG with (Qh Qs) - (standard open here with the hilton sisters, my raise is larger than normal bc of a OOP poster)
MP ($674) – raises to $36 (what a WEAK fawking raise…is this strength or weakness? I haven’t seen him 3 bet once so I’m going to interpret it as strength)
BLACKCHIPS calls $16 (while there definitely can be an argument for 4 betting here to define my hand better, I’m going to see a flop since we are deep)

*** FLOP *** (7d Qd Qc) (can you say NUTS?)
BLACKCHIPS bets $64
MP calls $64
(Some players might be inclined to check call or check raise in this spot…I opted to donk into him with the nuts. Why? First off, I want to build the pot if he has an overpair and second, there is NO WAY he would believe I would donk into him with quads. NONE. So let’s get this party started here on the flop, I want to get MAX value on this hand.)

*** TURN *** (7d Qd Qc) (7h)
BLACKCHIPS bets $156 (why stop betting here? If he has AK, he’ll muck it, but he may call more street if he has an overpair.)
MP calls $156

*** RIVER *** (7d Qd Qc 7h) (2c)
BLACKCHIPS bets $476 (I left myself with a nice sized river bet, hopefully he still thinks I have something like KK or air!)
MP calls $418.50, and is all in (can you say SHIP IT?)

*** SHOW DOWN ***
BLACKCHIPS shows (Qh Qs) four of a kind, Queens (hilton sisters SQUARED!)
MP mucks
BLACKCHIPS wins the pot ($1,356) with four of a kind, Queens

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $1,359 | Rake $3
Board: (7d Qd Qc 7h 2c)
BLACKCHIPS showed (Qh Qs) and won ($1,356) with four of a kind, Queens
MP mucked (Ad Ah) - two pair, Aces and Queens (uh dude, you might have had pocket rockets, but you didn't even have the Ace of spades, how could you possibry expect to win this hand. Jesus, neither of your cards were even BRACK!)

BRACKCHIPS

Betting the River

Ok enough of this prop betting bs. This is a poker blog, goddammit, so let's talk about some poker hands. Like many intermediate players (I don't think I'm a beginner and I'm definitely not an expert, so I guess intermediate is all that's left), I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what I'm doing pre-flop, and on the flop, but I find myself making a lot of mistakes on later streets. I think there are a couple of reasons it takes longer to become a good player on the turn and river: first, there are more situations that could arise, since you have all the same number of possibilities of cards, position, and preflop action, now multiplied by turn and river possiblities, and flop, turn, and river action. Second, since relatively few hands get to the turn or river, you don't get as much practice on these streets.

Another thing I've noticed about NL100 and NL200 is that the really successful players are EXCELLENT value bettors. Winning at these levels is really about extracting value from players that love to call down with top pair-no kicker, more than it is about running big bluffs or even sniffing out coolers and hands like an overpair vs. a set (although being successful with these plays can obviously only help your win rate).

In any case, in a previous post I criticized what I thought was a bad river play by my opponent, betting when only better hands call. Here's a hand where I made the opposite mistake, checking the river when I should be betting for value:

$1/$2 (9-handed)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BLUECHIPS [9h 8h]
UTG($77) raises to $3
BLUECHIPS calls $2 in BB - (I don't really like my call here, especially vs. a villain without a full stack and no other callers. I usually wouldn't do it, but it was a fairly small raise, and since the virrain here is 20/7/0.75, I thought his hand was pretty strong, so if I hit something good I can get a lot of value. And if I get a draw, his low AF indicates I might be able to get to the river fairly cheap. This is the type of player against whom my positional disadvantage isn't so great.)

*** FLOP *** [8c 8d Ah] - (This definitely qualifies as something good, time to go to valuetown.)
BLUECHIPS bets $4
UTG calls $4 - (Good result. I should have bet more here though. I think at the time I was thinking, "I'll bet weak and hope he raises, and he might call down smaller bets with QQ." But a player with an AF of less than one is not going to raise too often. The pot is $6, so I should probably make it more like $5 or $6. Not necessarily because I need to get that much value on THIS street, but building a bigger pot now allows me to make bigger bets on later streets without ever overbetting.)

*** TURN *** [8c 8d Ah] [6d] - (Definitely betting again. Again, here I think I bet too little. Given that he called the flop bet, he probably has AQ or AK. If he has QQ, he's probably not calling any more no matter how much I bet on the turn. The pot is now $14, I think $12-$14 is better than $10.)
BLUECHIPS bets $10
UTG calls $10

*** RIVER *** [8c 8d Ah 6d] [2h] - (The deuce changes nothing, obviously. The pot is now $34. Note that if I had bet pot on the flop and turn, the pot would now be $54, and I could comfortably put him all-in with a pottish-sized bet. In any case, as played, now is the time to put in another $30 bet and extract some more value out of TPGK.)
BLUECHIPS checks
UTG checks

*** SUMMARY ***
BLUECHIPS (big blind) showed [9h 8h] and won ($32.80) with three of a kind, Eights
UTG mucked [Qc As] - two pair, Aces and Eights

WTF??? Where was that good-sized value bet I was talking about? Well, all of the sudden I got freaked out and convinced myself he was slowplaying AA the whole way down. Of course, this is possible. But I can not allow him to check down AQ right there. Terrible play on my part. If I bet the 30, obviously he will shove with AA, and then I'm faced with a tough decision. Players with AFs below 1 don't shove TPGK on the river too often. But they also don't bet it when checked to on the river when there's a pair on the board. So as played, if he bets, I probably call, and lose money to top boat just as if I had bet the money myself.

Betting trip 8s here is not betting when only better hands call. Of course there are better hands that I could be betting into, namely top boat, but there are also obvious second best hands that I'm betting into that will call me, namely AQ or AK. Also note how rare AA is compared to AQ and AK. Given that there's an A on the board, there are only three AA hands, but there are twelve each of AQ and AK. So if he's playing all three hands the same way (flat calling flop and turn), then the chances he has AA are 3/25 = 12%. So with trips on the river, bet and get value out of the other 88%.

Also important here is that the fact that I didn't get value on the river makes my preflop call not just marginal but terrible. I called with the intention of getting big value from a big flop. Then I got a big flop and managed to make only $17, after calling off $2. I'm pretty sure the odds of me fropping two pair or better AND the virrain fropping one pair are a lot less than 8.5:1, so when it happens I need to get a lot more value if I want to make the call before the frop.

BRUECHIPS


Not that anyone cares, but I'm going to chime in with my two cents on this post. As for the way the hand played out...here are my thoughts:

a) a little loose PF call in a HU situation...but they were sooted. However, not only were they NOT spades...they were RED. Pretty much the only way yer going to win this hand is with trips or two pair, the fRush never gets there with hearts. NEVER.

b) frop and turn...good solid donk bets, but as you mentioned - you definitely need to BET MORE! ESPECIALLY on the frop, this is the street that wirr dictate more of the the pot size than any other street (other than PF).

c) i think you can safely bet this river and fold to a shove. I do not think in general people make moves on the river that often, and if he shoves its a relatively easy fold.

The crux of this post is missed value, especially on the river...the street on which you can potentially miss the most value (assuming you have built the pot up on previous streets) from getting worse hands to call a river bet. I'm not really sure if there is anything that annoys me more in poker than MISSING a river value bet. It really requires you to replay the hand in your head, evaluating the action on every street, and measuring your hand strength relative to your virrain...and coming up with the proper bet size that will MAXIMIZE your profit. You need to find an amount and weigh the probability of getting a call (from a worse hand) vs the probability of getting a call from various other amounts. Will you get a call from an overbet? 1/2 pot? Pot? Finding that perfect amount is both an art and a science.

I'm sure BrueChips is have trouble sleeping over missing this bet on the river. One things for sure, that $30 bet he missed is the difference between him a sushi dinner vs ramen noodles for dinner tonight. ROR!

BRACKCHIPS

Actuarry it's more rike the difference between me signing up for a porn site for a month ($30) or getting a brow job from Tiffany's mom (usuarry 35 cents. Two for 50 cents on Tuesdays though.).

BRUECHIPS

Last Minute TD Brings Victory to....BrueChips!!!

Ship the 5, sucka!!!! Somehow I managed to stave off BrackChips' victory in pretty much every pure-luck bet and secure a 10-9 victory in the props for a net gain of $5. A quick recap:

I win (10 total):

-Kraft's tie. It was Pink. With a "p". Let me emphasize, BrackChips offered me EITHER side of this bet. I was like...let me get this straight...you get "blue", I get pretty much every other color except "green" which he would never wear? Done.
-Total turnovers: 1 Manning INT + 1 Brady fumble = my second prop victory.
-First TD of the game: Maroney rumbled into the end zone in the first quarter.
-Longest TD pass of the game: Longest was the 13-yarder to win it.
-Brady sacks: Brady got sacked I think 31 times. Which is definitely more than 1.5.
-Randy Moss receiving yards: finished with 62.
-Plaxico Burress receiving yards: 27 yards on 2 catches. The last one was pretty big though.
-Tom Petty songs: We did a pretty good job handicapping these, as our top 3 picks were all played. Fortunately I had 2 of the top three picks and nailed both of them (Free Fallin' and Runnin' Down a Dream)
-Manning TDs: Two TDs! Ship the over!

Brackchips wins (9):

-Coinfrip: G-Men win. Ruckbox victory for BrackChips.
-Giants first quarter direction: Another totar ruckbox win for BrackChips.
-Seconds hand on Giants total time of possession: 30:27. Sensing a theme here?
-Total Penalties: Only 9 of them.
-Game MVP: Giants win => No Brady MVP => BrackChips wins.
-Brady QB rating: Finished well below 108. I think I was pretty much drawing dead after the first half.
-Manning INTs: I knew this was a bad bet before the game started. 2 INTs is a lot to throw in a game. Anyway, he threw one.
-TP songs: TP opened with 'Won't Back Down', BrackChips's first pick. Werr done.
-Brady TDs: One TD only.

BRUECHIPS

Dumb Superbowl Prop Bets

Since we spend a good amount of our time gambling, we couldn't let the biggest sports event of the year go by without making some bets on it. A brief history of betting on sports between the two of us: I turned BrackChips into a boxing fan by offering him either side of a few boxing matches at Vegas odds. Each time, BrackChips has opted for the slower, bigger puncher, whire I've arways takes the fast brack guy. BrackChips started off on a winning streak with Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto over Jermain Taylor and Shane Mosley, respectively (I attended both matches), but then I made a comeback when Joan Guzman outpointed Humberto Soto and Floyd Mayweather left-hooked Ricky Hatton into the ringpost (one of my favorite sporting events ever).

Then I made a comprete donk bet in the rast game of the NFL season. For some reason I thought it would be a good idea to offer BrackChips 8-to-1 odds that the Giants couldn't come within 7 points of the Pats. I rearry think Rino Mathis somehow invaded my body and made this decision for me. But come on, they were supposed to rest all their starters, pray rike crap rike they usuarry do, and I win an easy $10. Instead, I had to sherr out $80. The worst part was BrackChips kept offering me buyout prices after every goddam pray in the 4th quarter. I would have paid another $20 just to make him shut up. Anyway, I won $100 off him praying HU right after the game, so I stirr finished the night ahead $20. Then I took the Packers and 10 points a coupre of weeks ago and had to pay out $10 on that. But then just a coupre of hours ago I won $20 off him when Johan Santana's contract clocked in at a total of $150.75 mirrion (I had the over an over/under of $150 mirrion - PWNED! SHIP IT!). Now that you're all caught up, here are the Super Props, $5 each:

Color of Bob Kraft's tie: If the color begins with one of the first 13 letters of the alphabet, BrackChips wins. I've got letters 14-26. Color named should be the most obvious/immediate word for the particular hue, verified by a third party.
Brady QB rating: I have the over at 108.
Coin Frip: BrackChips has G-Men, I have Pats.
Seconds Column of Giants total time of possession: Brack Chips has :00 to :29, I have :30 to :59.
Total Turnovers: BrackChips has odd #'s, I have even #'s.
Total Penalties: I have the over at 13.
Game MVP: I have Brady, BrackChips has the field.
Manning INTs: I have the over at 1.5.
First TD of the game: If it's a Brady rush or pass, BrackChips wins. Anything else, I win.
Longest TD pass of the game: I've got the under at 40 yards.
Brady sacks: I have the over at 1.5.
Direction Giants face in first quarter: BrackChips has reft as you rook at the TV.
Randy Moss receiving yards: I have the under at 115.
Plaxico Burress receiving yards: I have the under at 85.
Songs Tom Petty plays at halftime: Here, we did a draft of songs. We did 4 rounds, alternating who went first. In this bet, you win $5 for every song Tom Petty plays.

Round 1 - BrackChips - Won't Back Down BrueChips - Free Farrin'
Round 2 - BrueChips - Runnin' Down a Dream BrackChips - Don't Come Around Here No More
Round 3 - BrackChips - Refugee BrueChips - Into the Great Wide Open
Round 4 - BrueChips - Rearning to Fry BrackChps - You Don't Know How It Feers

Those are all the bets. I think I've got some pretty solid equity here. But then again, BrackChips is such a ruckbox my EV is probabry around -$20. I mean seriously, the Pats were UP 10 with like 3 minutes left, of course the Giants drive the length of the field (thanks in part to a stupid personal foul penalty on the Pats) and score a meaningless TD with a minute left. So gross.

BRUECHIPS


Props are the lifeline of a gambler with a TRUE addiction...and what better day to go apeshit with props than superbowl sunday. Especially when my beloved GMEN are in the big game...WORD.

I'm not going to lie, overall I think I'm looking an -EV of $10 across all the props. In reviewing them, there is an outside chance I could be drawing dead on a couple of them. However, rest assured...my ability to draw out and overcome the odds will hopefully rescue me once again. Let's just hope I don't suck out too often, I don't want Bruechips falling behind on his tuition bill, ROR!

BRACKCHIPS

I think having the over on the Manning INTs is the worst bet I made. The over/under should probably be 1, not 1.5. But I think I pretty much killed the song draft. Or rather, BrackChips absorutery donked out on it. He gets the first pick and he takes 'Won't Back Down'??? Are you crazy??? 'Free Farrin'' and 'Runnin' Down a Dream' are LOCKS!!!!

BRUECHIPS

Rate breaking news: Two more props: I have the over on both Brady and Manning TD passes at 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. Watching this game and trying to figure out how every play affects my EV is making my head hurt. Of course BrackChips rucked out on the coin frip. This much we knew would happen.

BRUECHIPS