November 15, 2008

Not compounding a mistake

Not compounding a mistake…

Despite there being only three postfrop streets in NLHE, there are so many paths that can be taken along the decision tree of postfrop actions.  It is incredibly difficult to make the optimal play in the course of a hand that is played all the way through to the river…and when you do make a mistake, you have to do your best not to make things any worse.  Since all your chips are at risk at any given time in NLHE, it’s imperative to limit your mistakes.  While you do not have to play optimally in order to be a successful player in NLHE, one of the key ingredients to winning is making fewer mistakes than you opponents. 

Here is a hand I recently played…commentary to follow. 

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Brackchips [Ah Ad]
Brackchips raises to $16 (EP)
LP calls $16 (LP)
*** FLOP *** [Qd 9d 4s]
Brackchips bets $26
LP calls $26
*** TURN *** [Qd 9d 4s] [As]
Brackchips checks
LP checks
*** RIVER *** [Qd 9d 4s As] [8h]
Brackchips checks
LP bets $48
Brackchips calls $48
*** SHOW DOWN ***
LP shows [Ts Js] a straight, Queen high
LP wins the pot ($183) with a straight, Queen high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $186 | Rake $3
Board: [Qd 9d 4s As 8h]

I went for a CR on the turn in an attempt to fatten the pot…but unfortunately the villain checked behind.  I absolutely HATE my turn check.  I am betting this for value and as a bluff literally 95% of the time since the A is a good card for my range…and not the villain.   

When one of the obvious draws came in, my only play was to check call and pray he missed diamonds.  In the chat afterwards, the villain was very surprised that I only check called, but based on his profile…it is the ONLY play.  There is only one hand in his range that I am missing value from by not CR’ing the river…AQ.  Also…it is so incredibly unlikely that he has exactly AQ here since I have AA.

While I have the second nuts on the river…against my villain’s range, my hand is simply a bluff catcher.  He either has missed diamonds, JT for the nuts, or a Qx type hand.  If he holds a Qx hand other than AQ, I am CERTAIN he is incapable of value betting it.   It’s pretty thin as far as whether he would call a bet with my bet, check, bet line with a Qx hand…but as far as the figuring out the optimal line vs his entire range, I am confident that a check was best.  

While my turn check was obviously a mistake, I was able to limit my losses.  

-BRACKCHIPS

2 comments:

Memphis MOJO said...

You hated your check on the turn because he got there. If he doesn't (and he won't most of the time), your hand is disguised and you might get more chips out of him (in fact on the river, he might bluff raise you!) because you looked like you were afraid of the ace.

Good post, thanks.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

wow, eerily similar to the hand I was in with you... well, not quite that similar. dammit, why don't you post that one so I can see what you had.