Thanks For Not Stacking Me, Bro! (Part 6)

OK, granted this guy almost stacked me, but I just found this hand representative of general donkey play, where they play draws loose/passively out of position, and then fail to get full value when their draw hits.

Seat 2: UTG+2 ($152.55)
Seat 5: bruechips (CO) ($289.20)
Seat 6: Button ($303.25)
Seat 7: SB ($223.20)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bruechips [Ah As]
UTG+2 calls $2
CO raises to $10
Button calls $10
SB calls $9
UTG+2 folds (This was a pretty juicy table. I wasn't crazy about my seat because the button was a LAG who, while I think is a losing player, could put me in some tough spots. The SB was a complete donkey, playing very loose. This UTG+2 idiot was limping in early position and then folding to a raise in a 4-way pot where he's closing out the action. Donkerrific. In this hand I'm obviously feeling good with aces, but I'm also going to have to be aware that I could lose a big pot.)

*** FLOP *** [8d 9h 4d]
SB bets $22
CO raises to $58 (I would be SHOCKED if the SB were leading out here for 2/3 pot with a set. Shocked. I would even be surprised if he did it with top two pair. I think he has some one-pair hand like J9 or K8 or a draw like every time. I'm way ahead of his range and I don't want to call and give the button good odds to call with QT or something....although the button is aggro enough to try a squeeze play with a pretty wide range if I just called, and I'd have a sweet opportunity to come over the top. In any case, I decided to charge the draws and second best hands by raising for value.)
Button folds
SB calls $36

*** TURN *** [8d 9h 4d] [3c]
SB checks
Button bets $92 (Beautiful turn card and he checks. I'm pretty sure he's drawing to somewhere between 5 and 12 outs. There is about $145 in the pot and he has $155 left in his stack. I could just shove, but I thought he'd be more likely to call, or maybe even shove over top of, a smaller bet. If he were guaranteed to double up when he hits, then if I bet an amount x, he calls that amount x to win 145 (the amount already in the pot) + x (my turn bet) + 155-x (what's left in his stack after calling the turn bet). So the implied odds would be (145 + x + 155 - x):x = 290:x. So if he has 12 outs (for instance if he has QdTd) for 12/44 = 3/11 equity (i.e., an 8:3 dog to catch up on the river), he makes a mistake by calling anytime 290/x is less than 8/3, or x > 109. If he has 8 outs for 8/44 = 2/11 equity, he should not call if 290/x is less than 9/2, or x > 65. And remember these calculations assume that he gets all-in on the river anytime he catches up on the river, and never puts in another chip if he misses. So by betting $92 I do give him implied odds with his biggest draws, but I force him to make a big mistake with any lesser draws, and if he ever shoves in over the top of a $92 bet where he would have folded to a shove, that's just gravy. Also note that there are a lot more 8 and 9-out draws than 12-out draws. Any JT or 76 gives 8 outs, any two diamonds (including A-high diamonds, since I do NOT have the Ad) except for QT, 75, and QJ of diamonds makes 9 outs, whereas only the three diamond hands mentioned there give 12 outs. If he had more than 12 outs either on the flop or turn, for instance JT of diamonds, 67 of diamonds, 9x of diamonds, I think he'd just shove either the flop or the turn, in which case my bet sizing doesn't matter, as long as I bet. If he would be calling a shove very often then obviously shoving is better, but he timed down for a while before calling this bet, which makes me think he probably would have folded to a shove. If I had it to do over I might bet just a touch more, like $99, but I think anywhere in the $90-100 range is good, as it is tempting for him to call, while still being a bad mistake, and might give him the illusion of some fold equity.)
SB calls $92
*** RIVER *** [8d 9h 4d 3c] [Qs]
SB bets $18
bruechips calls $18 (ROR!!! He has $63 left in his stack, the pot is now $330ish, and he bets $18. I considered going ahead and putting him in as he could be putting in a blocking bet with Qx of diamonds, but I decided to take the safer route and just call to avoid value-owning myself vs. JT.)

*** SHOW DOWN ***
SB shows [Th Jh] a straight, Queen high

OK, so he won this hand by getting the straight on the river, but he played it absolutely atrociously. His bet/call on the flop is terrible. His check/call on the turn is terrible (the math I did up there to show the biggest bet he can call, remember, assumes that he will get full value on the river), and his small river value bet is even worse. I guess he's trying to induce me to shove for another $45? I'm pretty much NEVER shoving that river to try to get a calling station to fold for another $45 in a $350 pot. If I ever shove over the top of his bet, it would be for value, in which case I'm calling if he shoves anyway (I would definitely have called if he had shoved the river). His inability to get value on the river makes his turn call even worse. Well played donkey!!!

-BRUECHIPS