A case of the Mondays (Part 3)

http://tinyurl.com/nnev6q

-BRACKCHIPS

Brack is Beautiful (Part 19), ATM FTW!

True HH, Bruechips was actually railing me at the time...no commentary/analysis necessary, this one plays itself out.

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/252376

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $600.00

UTG+1: $652.00

MP: $1544.60

CO: $93.00

BTN: $1008.00

SB: $2330.15

Hero (BB): $858.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is BB with Ts Ks

2 folds, MP raises to $24, 3 folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($51.00) 2s 9s Qh (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($99.00) 8s (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $99, Hero raises to $330, MP calls $231

River: ($759.00) 7s (2 players)

Hero bets $480 all in, MP calls $480

Final Pot: $1719.00

MP mucks Jh 7c

Hero shows Ts Ks (a flush, King high)

Hero wins $1716.00

(Rake: $3.00)

-BRACKCHIPS

BTW, how often is it that you frop no pair and have your virrain drawing that thin, even though he shares no cards with you? 93% equity on the frop with K-high vs. J-high ROR.

-BRUECHIPS

Yer Gonna Rove My Nuts! (Part 9)

Despite this virrain being on the nitty side, I managed to hoodwink him into committing himself drawing pretty thin:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/250963

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $71.25

CO: $9.25

BTN: $52.30

Hero (SB): $54.90

BB: $20.00

UTG: $50.00

UTG+1: $70.90

MP1: $11.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ad Ah

5 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.75

Flop: ($13.50) 2s Qs 9c (2 players)

Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9

Turn: ($31.50) 6c (2 players) (Pretty standard up to this point with me 3-betting the nuts preflop and c-betting a Q-high draw-y frop. I think the turn is a good spot to check/raise all-in because 1) Since the board has draws on it, a lot of the times that I'm checking this turn I'm giving up and folding, 2) I don't think he'll call 3 streets with less than a Q, so I don't lose much value by him checking back, say, JJ 3) If he has some sort of draw or float, he'll probably bet the turn if I check, so I don't worry too much about giving a free card.)

Hero checks, BTN bets $27.50, Hero raises to $39.40 all in, BTN calls $9.30 all in

River: ($105.10) 3c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $105.10

BTN shows 8h 7h (Queen Nine high)

Hero shows Ad Ah (a pair of Aces)

Hero wins $102.10

Did not expect him to peel the frop THAT light!! He did pick up an open-ender on the turn, but peeling the frop with 8-high no draw is pretty roose. As I said, I am folding a lot of the time I check this turn so it's not terrible terrible...but I don't think I check it THAT often - I will be double barreling it quite a bit. I definitely got furr varue out of that part of his range by checking here though, and I don't think I rose too much varue when he has a decent hand.

-BRUECHIPS

A case of the Mondays (Part 2)

Take a look!

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1918771

My Play with the TT

Thanks to all the commenters on my last post. I think it's super close between folding and shoving. Calling and then folding at some point seems pretty spewy, as does calling and then calling a 4b shove from MP...4-betting and then folding is even worse. I think 4-bet/calling is essentially the same as shoving, so I'm not going to differentiate between the two in my analysis.

The first step is making a guess at the shorty's range. Given that MP opens pretty loose and CO is a donk with 40 bbs, it's an awesome spot for him to squeeze. I'd make his range something like 66+, AT+, although I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up with lower pp's, lower aces, and the occasional KQ/KJ. Against that range I have 54.8% equity. If I shove and get heads up with the shorty and win, then I win (22.2 + 7 + 1.5)*.9 = 27.63 (the .9 is there to account for the rake). If I lose, then I lose 22.2. So my EV given that I get HU with the shorty is:

.548*27.63 - .452*22.2 = 5.1.

So that would be clearly good, to get HU with the shorty. The issue is how often that happens, and how much equity I have when MP calls my shove. I'd estimate his range for calling my shove to be pretty much exactly JJ+ and AK, with some possibility of him folding JJ. But say he sticks around with JJ. Then in a 3-way pot, my TT has 26.3% equity. That is, 26.3% of the time, I win the whole thing. In this case I win 102.6 + 3.5 + 22.2 + 1.5 - 3 (the rake) = 126.8. Then sometimes I win the side but not the main (when I beat MP but the shorty beats me). The shorty wins 26% of the time, so maybe 10% of the time I win the side but not the main (I don't know how to get PS to do this, so it's a well-informed guess). In this case I win 80.4 - 22.2 = 58.2. If I lose both, I lose 102.2. So given that MP calls, my expected profit is:

.263*126.8 + .1*58.2 - .637*102.6 = -26.2

So that's obviously bad. But it doesn't happen all the time! AK and JJ+ represent about 3.2% of all hands. They're maybe a LITTLE bit less likely given that the shorty has shoved (more likely to have some high cards), and also that the CO called (more likely to be QJo than 56o, for instance). But then I have TT, and not T's are in his calling range. On net, I don't think I can make too many conclusions based on card removal. But he's calling about 3% of his range. How often does he have to fold for me to show a profit? In other words, what's the solution to this equation:

5.1*f - (1-f)*26.2 > 0

Answer: f > .837. So if he's calling 3%, he has to be opening .03/(1-.837) = 18.4% for me to show a profit. And I'm pretty sure that's the case. Folded to him in the hijack, he's 19/15 overall...I'd guess he's raising something like 20-25% from there. But it's razor thin. If the shortstack were a bit tighter, for instance, I'd need more folds from MP and the play wouldn't be profitable anymore. I've also just assumed that CO will fold every time, which is probably a fair assumption, but if he slowplays AA or KK a significant % of the time that might swing the play to -EV. In any case, I did shove and MP used almost his entire time bank before calling with JJ. The shorty had AK and the board bricked off. So, in summary, it's quite close and I couldn't fault a fold, but shoving probably slightly better.

-BRUECHIPS

NEW SERIES - A case of the Mondays (Part 1)

I'm a bit bored with poker content right now so I figured I'd start up a new non poker series...

This new series is going to be dedicated to giving everyone coming back to work after the weekend a good laugh. Each week I will try and dig up a new and entertaining clip and post it here.

We'll start the series with George Brett. It's not baseball related...so you will just have to watch!

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6403VV2oyu0

-BRACKCHIPS

Another WWYD...

Original raiser is 19/15 or so, not too much info on anybody else in the hand...Also note that it's 7-handed, so MP is also the hijack:

Full Tilt p0ker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/233057
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $23.65
MP: $128.50
CO: $41.50
BTN: $22.20
SB: $85.50
Hero (BB): $102.60
UTG: $132.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Td Th
2 folds, MP raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN raises to $22.20 all in, 1 fold, Hero ???

-BRUECHIPS

Part 2 of CR Vid Going Up Today...

CardRunners is publishing the second part of my game theory series today. As always, please go forth and watch and comment if you have a CR membership (attainable at no cost through truly free poker training). For readers who are not CR members, you're missing out (on a lot of awesome CR content, not just my vids)!

-BRUECHIPS

Blogger alternative suggestions PLEASE

Spritpot has been utirizing Brogger since the inception of our blog 18 months ago. Its been a rocky relationship with Brogger...we both agree that their software is the ABSOLUTE NUT low. Its terrible - full of bugs, restrictions, and all kinds of assorted gheyness.

If you have any suggestions for alternative blogging software solutions...please comment! Also - suggestions with regards to transferring our current blog to a new program would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!
-BRACKCHIPS

Thanks for Not Stacking Me, Bro! (Part 18)

Long time no blog…Bruechips has been flat out DOMINATING the spritpot airwaves. I took almost a month off the game (the longest I have ever taken off) after a gross-ish June - the RNG just left me helpless. I played a mix of NLHE games ranging from my standard 2/4 game all the way up to a few hands of 25/50 cap and ended up getting tuned up by the RNG to the equivilant of 40 bi’s in my normal 400 game. Granted some of it was at higher stakes…but it just left a bitter taste in my mouth (that’s what she said!).

Off the whine train and onto our regularly sked’d program…poker!!!

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/226596

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $410.00

BTN: $561.00

SB: $559.50

Hero (BB): $803.00

UTG: $260.10

UTG+1: $456.00

MP: $180.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 7c 7s

4 folds, BTN raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $11

(this is pretty standard for me…although an argument could be made for a 3b. 77 is towards the top of my flatting range vs a CO open. It doesn’t play fantasticly postfrop oop, but I knew my villain to be somewhat passive and felt like I could wrestle the pot away in most spots. If there was another caller I’d be more inclined to sqeeze.)

Flop: ($32.00) 7d 5c Jc (2 players)

Hero bets $24, BTN calls $24

(Can you say nuts? If he has Jacks then FML…but I would never consider folding here for 100bbs. Considering my opponent is so passive and does not c-bet enough…its time to put some money in the pot, there are a multiple draws out…and I will certainly get called by ANY one pair hand.)

Turn: ($80.00) 6d (2 players)

Hero bets $64, BTN calls $64

(89 compretes here but I’m making another VB, I figure he has a one pair type hand at best…when he does not raise here I’m quite confident that my hand is best).

River: ($208.00) 8s (2 players)

Hero bets $144, BTN calls $144

(this decision actually was not at close as it looks. Granted there is a one liner straight out there…but I STILL have him on a one pair hand, and my hand does not look like particularly strong. Honestly in retrospect its tough for me to figure out what I was repping here, its quite rare when I call an open oop and donk the frop, turn, and river. I think he still calls my river bet with any one pair hand, and letting him check back QQ+, Jx, or a 2 pair hand would be pretty ghey.)

Final Pot: $496.00

BTN shows 8d 9c (a straight, Nine high)

Hero shows 7c 7s (three of a kind, Sevens)

BTN wins $493.00

(well he shows up with the second nuts, ROR! I flop the second nuts, he ends up with the second nuts and I loses a TON of value. Clearly he must have had me on 9T not to raise that river, ROR. I insta stack off on the turn without HESITATION…and its very thin regarding calling a river raise.)

-BRACKCHIPS

Spam Email Titles

Despite how annoying they are, I find that spam e-mail titles can be entertaining, creative, even poetic at times. Here are a few I just noticed in my spam folder:

"She prefers your lovestick bigger"

"Your staying pole will be like a magnet for gals!"

"Support for your boning!"

"Discover the secret of your existence!"

What are your favorites?

-BRUECHIPS

Shortstack Shoving in Tournies

Comments over on Foucault's brog made me want to post about shoving short stacks (or, almost equivalently, shoving when only short stacks are left to act) in donkaments. Say it's folded to you in the small blind, and you're holding some miserable hand like J3o. Let's say it's 200/400 with a 25 chip ante, and you've got 4k chips. Let's consider 4 options: folding, raising to 1100 and folding to a shove, raising to 1100 and calling a shove, and just open shoving yourself.

If you fold, you win zero. Simple enough.

If you open shove, your expected winnings obviously depend on how often your opponent calls you. But so does your equity in the hand when he calls. If he calls more often (bad for you), you win more often when he does call (good for you), since in order to call more often he calls with weaker hands. To give an idea, if he calls with top 10% of hands (as defined by PokerStove), your equity when called is 26%. Against top 20% of hands, it's 29%. Against top 30%, 32%. By the time he's calling 50% of all hands, your equity is 35%. Recall that your expected winnings in the hand are:

f*(400 + 200 + 225) + (1-f)*(-3775*(1-e(f)) + e(f)*4200)

Where f is the % of the time villain folds and e(f) is J3o's equity when called which, as I mentioned earlier, is a function of f. So for instance if villain calls only with top 10% hands, then this equals:

.9*825 + .1*(-3775*.74 + .26*4425) = 572

For f = .8, it's 368, for f=.7, 211, and finally for f=.5 (at which point the villain is calling with hands such as 96s and J7o), it finally goes slightly negative at -79. So for all but the very loosest of strategies by the big blind, shoving will be better than folding.

If you change the stack size to 15 bbs, however (replace 3775 in the above formula with 5775, replace 4425 with 6425), expected profit goes negative around the f=.7 area. Even a quite loose tourney player wouldn't call off 10-15 bbs in the bb much more than 20% of the time, as this is basically all pairs and broadways, so shoving here is probably still better than folding 15 bbs deep (although maybe not if raising from the button...the chances of one of the two players being dealt a top 20% hand is roughly (1 - (4/5)^2) = .36).

In order to evaluate raising a smaller amount and then either calling or folding, we have to guess how often the villain is reshipping on us. We'll just have to assume that he's either raising or folding, since 1) that's what most players do anyway, and 2) it's difficult to model our expected profit when he calls.

So let's say that we're raising to 1100, and our villain is folding f percent of the time, and re-shipping 1-f percent. If we're folding, EV is:

f*825 - (1-f)*875 = 1700*f - 875

For a given f, this generally gives a higher expectation than open shoving. The problem is that you're inducing more re-shoves, or at least calls, when you do this relative to shoving yourself. So, for instance, shoving when f=.8 yields a higher expectation than raise/folding with f=.7. However this is not the case with 15 bbs. Notice that the EV of raise/folding is invariant to stack size, whereas the EV of shoving goes down as stack size goes up, keeping f constant, since you lose more when called. The difference in f (i.e. the additional fold equity) has to be pretty large for shoving to be better than raise/folding with 15 bbs. For instance, with f=.8, shoving yields 213 chips in expectation, whereas raise/folding earns 315 even with an f=.7. Add in the fact that it's a lower variance play, which matters in tournaments, and I think raise/folding is clearly superior to shoving with 15 bbs.

Raise/calling is clearly going to be worse than raise/folding even with 10 bbs since in order to show a profit on the call, we need to be getting 2900/(2900 + 4425) = 40% equity in the pot, which we don't have unless the BB is re-shipping just about any two cards, in which case we should just be open folding anyway. Raise/calling with 15 bbs is even worse.

So in summary, I think 10 bbs is really the right point to start shoving to steal blinds and antes, rather than 15 bbs.

-BRUECHIPS

Night at the Fights

Last night a couple of buddies and I went to the Bradley/Campbell fight at Agua Caliente casino a couple of hours from San Diego. We felt like high rollers since my friend Justin splurged and got floor tickets for the three of us, which turned out to be an excellent decision. The fights themselves actually turned out to suck pretty hard, since both of the losers in the main two fights (Bradley/Campbell and Witter/Alexander) just quit on their stools between rounds without even getting into that much action. Witter claimed some sort of elbow injury. Campbell quit basically hoping that the cut on his eye would be ruled to be caused by a headbutt (it still might be), resulting in a no contest rather than the certain, yet probably entertaining, loss he was headed towards.

But all was not lost, as we did some serious hob-nobbing before and during the fights, starting with Johnny Bench. That's right, Johnny Fawking Bench. I shook his hand, took a picture with him (see above, for some reason Blogger forces me to put all pics at the beginning of the post), even joked with him for a little bit. The first thing that I noticed was his hands. I have pretty big hands myself, but this dude just has absolute meathooks. He's a couple inches shorter than me, but if felt like shaking hands with Andre The Giant. He also seemed like a really nice guy, taking pictures with anyone who asked.

We also got to sit next to frequent California referee Jack Reese (see above for photo of me and Jack). This guy knows a LOT about boxing. He also was genuinely surprised and honored that we recognized him and knew his name and whatnot. Anyway, he sat next to us throughout the entire TV card and pointed out a lot of stuff to us that we wouldn't have otherwised noticed.

Cris Arreola was there as well. That guy is massive. He's got a date with Klitschko in Staples Center on Sept. 26, there's definitely a good chance I'll be at that one.

We were hoping that Shane Mosley might be there as well, since he shows up at a lot of cards in Southern California, but he wasn't. We saw one guy that we were pretty sure was his dad, but Shane himself did not make an appearance.

Of course after the fights ended early we hit the tables for a little gambling. I sat at a very juicy 3/6 limit table but was pretty card dead and lost $75 in 3-4 hours of playing. Those tables can be frustrating, because the rake is big, and winning a pot without showdown is VERY rare (probably 80% of hands go to showdown, maybe more), so you just have to keep patient and keep paying blinds and rake while you wait. And of course your top pair or whatever will get rivered plenty of the time since it's usually 4-way or something ridiculous the whole way down. But whatever, it was a fun time. We capped it off of course with a trip to Denny's (a boxing tradition for us) on the way home.

All in all, a good night at the fights, even with limited action in the ring. Can't wait until our next boxing trip, which should be Mayweather/Marquez in Vegas.

-BRUECHIPS