Vegas Trip Report

Got back from Vegas last night - all in all, a very solid weekend. Boxing, gambling...only downside: a lot of us got sick (cold sick, not drunk sick), including me. All in all I managed to end up a slight winner on the weekend, up ~$400 from poker, down $100 from boxing and $150 from blackjack. Fawking blackjack.

As usual, we did all our gambling downtown (except for the boxing bets we placed at the MGM Sportsbook). This gives you great value at the brackjack table (if you get lucky, you can find $5 at Las Vegas Club's "Fetish Pit", which involves hot brackjack dealers dressed up in various uniforms (e.g., nurse, biker babe, etc.), and some scantily clad female dancing on a pole in the middle. Unfortunately it doesn't offer the best poker games - The Golden Nugget only had $1/$2 hold 'em, and while the game was obviously pretty soft, I'd imagine the $2/$5 games on the strip were much juicier.

In any case, I did play the $1/$2 games at the Nugget for a few hours. It really couldn't be any more different than the online game. Probably the most notable hand of the weekend happened in the first half hour or so of my Friday night sesh. I had been playing fairly tight while the whole table was seeing 6-way limped flops, etc.. Anyway finally I picked up 4c3c on the button and raised up a couple of limpers to $15. A couple of them called and we saw a flop which was...arr crubs!! I think it was Qc8c5c. They check to me and I bet $30, only to be min check/raised by a lady with a bunch of the money on the table (like probably $800), which I thought might be an indication that she has some clue. Enough of a clue that if I 3-bet, she'll fold everything, and if I call she'll put me on a single club or a scare one-pair and shove the turn. So I kind of played with my chips for a while and finally called. The turn paired the 8 and she shoved. I wasn't crazy about the board pairing since she could have 55 or Q8, maybe even 85, but I'm obviously not folding. I made the call and she showed a single queen, saying she didn't have a club. She just mucked her other card as the river came a 5h. Then she went on for about 5 minutes about how it was so hard for her to put me in 4c3c. I'm like...lady...it's not the 4 and the 3 that matter. It's the crub and the crub! If you don't want to put me on 4c3c, put me on AcJc and don't overplay your Q! All of that was in my head of course...I just told her it was a tough hand and stacked the chips.

The boxing match Saturday night was definitely well worth the trip. It wasn't a sold out show, so we moved down and ended up with seats significantly better than the ones we paid for. Which was the other side of the bad part of it not being a sellout, which was that we could only get half price for the extra ticket we had. So we basically ended up with 5 $600 seats for the price of 5.5 $300 seats. Not too bad. The Katsidis-Escobedo undercard was, as anticipated, the highest-action fight of the night.

But Floyd Mayweather was the undisputed star of the show. Say what you will about Floyd (and after some of the things he said leading up to the fight, you'd be justified to say he's an idiot), on Saturday night you got to see an all-time great at the peak of his powers. It was the kind of performance that I will put with getting to see Jordan play for the Bulls, and getting to see Pedro pitch for the Red Sox, in the category of truly spectacular athletes I have gotten to see in person. Sure, Floyd did have a size advantage (although according to the ESPN measurements, Marquez has a longer reach than Floyd). But if you made a list of all the fighters in the world that could take the fight at 147 lbs (Justin and I tried to do this), you'd be hard-pressed come up with 10 that would be liver dogs than JMM. Here are the ones I can think of (no particular order):

Definites:

1. Pacquiao
2. Cotto
3. Mosley
4. Paul Williams
5. Andre Berto
6. Josh Clottey

Maybes:

1. Tim Bradley
2. Devon Alexander
3. Margarito
4. Luis Collazo

I don't think you can really make a case for anyone else, although if you want to, feel free. I haven't seen Sergei Dzindziruk fight, nor do I know if he could make 147, so maybe him. I don't think Sergio Martinez could safely make 147. Even putting Paul Williams on the list is questionable. Among the guys I've listed here, Clottey, Collazo, Bradley, Alexander, and Williams are complete non-starters because they can't bring any fans to the table and therefore don't offer Mayweather as big a paycheck for a fight. That leaves Mosley, Cotto, Pac-Man, Margarito, and Berto. Throw out Margarito because he's still not even licensed to fight in the US. That leaves four feasible guys that Mayweather could have picked that would have been tougher fights for his comeback, two of which (Cotto and Pacquiao) are fighting in November, a fight whose winner Floyd will probably face next year in a megafight. So just keep that in mind when you hear people talk about Floyd cherry-picking opponents. Sure, he could have come back against Mosley, a much tougher fight for probably not much more money than he made vs. Marquez. But it's not like Marquez is some tomato can. He's ranked #2 pound-for-pound in the world, has gone toe-to-toe with Pacquiao twice in fights that many thought he won. Even coming up in weight, he has to be considered among the top 10-15 people in the world for Mayweather to face.

And Floyd completely dominated him. Totally and absolutely. Watch any other Marquez fights and then compare it to this one. Watch his fights against Pacquiao, or against Juan Diaz or Joel Casamayor. I have seen all those fights and can tell you that Marquez deserved every bit of his #2 p4p status. He is a very accurate combination puncher and a skilled and experienced boxer. Floyd made him look like an amateur. Floyd stood right in front of him as Marquez threw whiffing combinations. Floyd landed jab after jab and peppered Marquez with counter right hands and left hooks. He landed 290/493 of his punches for 59%. Marquez landed 69 of 583 for 12 percent. Of course the weight difference helped Floyd, but it's not as if they were trading bombs all night and Floyd's power and chin were the difference.

Marquez showed great heart to make it the whole 12, although some of that has to be attributed to Floyd not really going all-out to get the KO. I had bet the late-round KO, so of course I was disappointed that didn't happen.

It's OK to be frustrated with Floyd for not fighting Mosley and for not trying harder to KO Marquez. But at the same time, you can't take anything away from his boxing skill. He's the #1 p4p fighter in the world, and he should be considered a significant favorite in any fight he takes next, whether it be Pacquiao, Cotto, or Mosley. If he wants to be considered a true top 20 all-time pound-for-pound fighter in the conversation with Sugar Ray Leonard, for instance, he'll have to take those fights and win them. If not, he's merely the greatest fighter in the game today, and a wonder to watch.

-BRUECHIPS

Mets Are Frustrating, Big Boxing Match this Weekend

If you want to add a lot of stress to your life, one way is to become a Mets fan. I'm sitting there watching Wednesday night's game vs. the Phillies. Mike Pelfrey has somehow managed to get through 6 innings and allowed only one run to a potent Phillies lineup. He hasn't exactly been dominating, striking out only 2, allowing a home run to Chase Utley, and gotten lucky with quite a few hard-hit balls right at infielders. Moreover, he gets into some sort of confrontation with Chase Utley at the end of the sixth.

With the Mets up 4-1, and Ryan Howard leading off the 7th, to be followed by Raul Ibanez, it should be COMPLETELY OBVIOUS that Pedro Feliciano, the best lefty in the Mets 'pen, should be starting the 7th on the mound. Howard's career OPS vs. right-handed pitchers is 1.065. Vs. lefties, .770. There is no earthly reason why he should ever be allowed to face a right-handed pitcher from the seventh inning on. Moreover, lefties have an OPS of .553 against Feliciano over his career. Any way you slice it, Feliciano vs. Howard is WAY better than Pelfrey vs. Howard for the Mets.

Of course, Mets manager Jerry Manuel left Pelfrey in, Howard and Ibanez (another left-handed hitter) both got base hits, leading to a big inning for the Phillies. As if to laugh in the faces of Mets fans everywhere, Feliciano started the 8th inning, once the Phillies had already tied the game, and retired Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in order. FML.

I am looking forward to another big sporting event this weekend in New York: Miguel Cotto vs. Joshua Clottey in MSG Saturday night. The fight will be on HBO and is a must-watch for anyone who likes boxing. We've talked about Cotto fights quite a bit in the past here at Spritpot, and it's because he's one of the best fighters out there, puts himself in against top competition, and doesn't shy away from action. He looked fine in his first fight back from his loss (perhaps unfair, as Margarito was later found to be using loaded gloves in his next fight against Shane Mosley) to Margarito, but against overmatched competition. Clottey will definitely provide a true test of whether Cotto can regain his previous form.

-BRUECHIPS

Sugar Shane

First of all, let me say, in the words of Andre Berto, Shane Mosley is an ANIMAL, don't get it twisted, baby!! I was at the Mosley/Margarito fight Saturday in LA. The crowd was made up of me (rooting for Shane, although I do like Margarito as a fighter, how could you not?), two of my friends (both American guys rooting for Margarito), and twenty thousand Mexicans cheering their brains out for Margarito. Mosley is from Pomona, not an hour's drive from the Staples Center (I know because we stopped there for some Denny's on the way home), and he still gets booed on his entrance.

For those of you who don't follow boxing, let me set the stage a bit. Mosley, now in his late 30s, has been around the fight game his whole life. He started his pro career fighting as a lightweight (135 lbs), and was completely dominant at that weight. Some say Shane was perhaps an all-time top five lightweight, but there weren't too many big fights for him at that weight. He has moved up over the years to get bigger fights, in particular against his now good friend and business partner, Oscar de la Hoya. But he's not a big welterweight (147 lbs). Also, although Shane had a Hall of Fame career even before last night, he had also struggled against bigger guys, losing twice to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, both of whom are much bigger than Shane (Vernon has spent pretty much his entire career at 154 lbs., Winky has fought as high as 170 lbs.).

Antonio Margarito is pretty much the biggest, beastliest 147-lb guy out there. He's almost 6 feet tall, with an iron chin and will to destroy his opponent. He seems to shrug off powerful punches landing right on his chin with a smile, and continues to pressure his opponent with punches round after round until finally they can take no more. How Mosley was able to watch Margarito's fight vs. Miguel Cotto, who beat Mosley at MSG in 2007, and think, "that's the guy I want to fight next," is beyond me. And anybody else in boxing prior to the fight. Mosley came into the fight as a 4:1 betting underdog. Many of his fans and boxing writers were genuinely worried about what kind of shape he would be in after the fight. I had even bet Brackchips that Margarito would win by KO.

And what happens? The Sugar Man, Shane Mosley, absolutely dominated Margarito for a little over 8 rounds, until finally it was Margarito's corner that couldn't stand to see their guy take any more punishment. Shane couldn't miss with his powerful overhand right, his whipping left hook, and a very effective jab. Perhaps even more important, he stayed off the ropes the entire fight (in contrast to Cotto), and was able to tie Margarito up and push him around on the inside. Again in contrast to Cotto, who, as I wrote in my recap of his last fight, had no killer instinct vs. Margarito, Shane was trying for the knockout from the opening bell. To everyone in the boxing world but Shane Mosley, that was pure lunacy. Margarito had had never even been knocked out, knocked down, or even wobbled in his pro career. This is basically the equivalent of seeing a wrecking ball coming in your direction, and deciding that, instead of trying to get out of the way, you'd be better off meeting it head on. Or deciding that you'll play Phil Ivey heads up for your entire roll and be MORE aggro than Ivey.

What a night for Shane. It's too bad there aren't more American boxing fans to really soak this one up for all it's worth, but if you get a chance to watch an HBO replay or anything, sit back and enjoy watching a guy take one for the stars and stripes. I have now been to three Mosley fights (vs. Cotto, vs. Mayorga, and vs. Margarito), and Shane has brought it every night. He lost a very competitive decision vs. Cotto, battled hard vs. Mayorga until he finally KOed El Matador in the last second of the 12th and final round, and now this performance for the ages against Margarito. Whomever he fights next, be it Berto, a rematch with Cotto, or if the stars somehow align and we get a dream match of Mosley vs. Mayweather, I will be either at the fight or glued to my TV.

-BRUECHIPS

The Battle

For those of you who took my advice and caught the Cotto-Margarito war last night, you can thank me later. If you didn't, you can catch up to everyone else by watching the replay on HBO this Saturday.

What an amazing fight. Cotto dominated the first 5 or so rounds by moving, jabbing, and countering Margarito, occasionally standing and trading a few punches, usually landing the cleaner, harder shots.

But Margarito never slowed, and gradually started to wear Cotto down. By the end of the sixth, Cotto looked tired and weak-legged. He wasn't able to evade Margarito as well as he had in the first few rounds. He spent more time leaning against the ropes or backed into corners. His counters were not as crisp.

In the ninth, Cotto bounced back to win his first round in a while. He seemed to have the upper hand in the first two minutes of the tenth as well. At this point the fight was very close on the cards, but it looked like Cotto had gotten his second wind. If he could have held on to win the tenth, and then grabbed either the eleventh or twelfth, the fight could have been his.

Maybe Cotto was thinking the same thing and let his concentration lapse a bit as he got caught and hurt with a barrage of punches by Margarito. This was the final turning point of the fight. Cotto managed to make it through the tenth round. He came out for the eleventh and tried to land some combinations, but it looked like a last-ditch effort. Margarito kept pounding on Cotto, finally forcing him to take a knee. He got up, but quickly backed into the opposite corner and took a knee again without taking a punch, forcing his corner to throw in the towel and end the fight. Margarito is the new welterweight champion.

Cotto fought a great fight, and would have knocked out almost any other welterweight in the world with the punches he landed in the first six rounds. But he did make two tactical decisions, which, in my opinion, were mistakes:

1) When he was in control of the fight in the first few rounds, he never pressed the action. Even after he landed a 3-punch combination, he would immediately back away and allow Margarito to come to him again. It seemed like he had just decided at the beginning there was no way he could KO Margarito, so he should just pile up punches and try not to get KO'ed himself. But this took away from his natural aggressiveness as a fighter (if this was the first time you saw Cotto fight, you would have no idea that in 95% of his prior fights HE was the one coming forward, pushing the action), and allowed Margarito to return to his gameplan of stalking down Cotto easily. Tony is not a great counterpuncher. Force him to lock up or punch back while he's on defense. This is in turn your best defense. It's very very tough to withstand 12 rounds of Tony coming towards you. Some part of the best defense against that is offense. Of course Cotto doesn't want to get into 12 rounds of standing and trading with Margarito, but he should stay on the attack when he lands well.

2) Cotto didn't go to the body enough in the first six rounds. It's pretty well established that Margarito can't really be hurt with head punches. They look great to the judges, but they just don't phase him, no matter how hard they land, and therefore don't retard his offense later in the fight. Going to the body won't look quite as good, but every punch to the ribcage you get in early takes away from Margarito's wind and power late, which would have been crucial for Cotto.

A truly exhilirating night of boxing. As for a rematch, I think both fighters should "see other people" before reuniting sometime next year. Margarito-Williams 2 now seems to be in order. Cotto has a variety of options. A rematch with Shane Mosley after Shane beats the crap out of Mayorga would be nice, as their first fight was very competitive. He could also fight Joshua Clottey if Clottey beats Judah. Who knows, maybe he'll still get to fight Oscar. Whatever their future holds, I will certainly be tuning in any time either of these two fighters enters the ring.

-BRUECHIPS

P.S. - Take this with a grain of salt as I am kind of a Floyd nut-hugger, but one thing I took away from the fight last night, as great as both guys were, is that neither can beat Floyd Mayweather. I heard a lot of people saying that after last night, Floyd would be too scared to come out of retirement to face Margarito. Please. What you saw in the first six rounds is what you would see for twelve rounds if Floyd fought Margarito. Floyd is faster than Cotto, both with his hands and his feet, and would avoid a lot of the punishment that Cotto took even while he was winning. In addition, Floyd's conditioning is just unreal. You never ever even get a HINT of him tiring down the stretch. He could run circles around Margarito all night long. He wouldn't knock him out, and it probably wouldn't be that great to watch. I would still give Cotto a better chance against Floyd, but his apparent abandonment of the body attack he carried with him at 140 would hurt him against Mayweather. It would be a more interesting fight than Margarito-Mayweather though. If Cotto went back to the stalking, punishing style he employed against Zab Judah, he might have a chance. But in his recent fights vs. Mosley, Margarito, and even the outmatched Gomez, he's favored a more measured, technical approach, and nobody fights in that style better than Mayweather.

Showdown in Vegas This Weekend

Sports fans, do NOT miss out on perhaps the most exciting fight of this year as Miguel Cotto takes on Antonio Margarito for welterweight supremacy this Saturday in Las Vegas. If you're not a boxing fan or just have never seen a big fight before, get some buddies together and pony up the $50 for this PPV event. It will be well worth it. If you sprung for the Mayweather-De La Hoya fight a couple of years ago and were disappointed in the lack of action, this fight is for you. These guys are both warriors and neither one is a defensive master. Both of them come in the ring to break down and demolish their opponents.

Cotto comes in as a rising star with an undefeated record. Beating Margarito, after beating Shane Mosley last year in New York, would pretty much clean out the non-Mayweather welterweights and put him in the discussion for tops on the pound-for-pound list. Margarito is a grizzled veteran who has been working towards this fight for a long time. Personally, I can't remember ever being this excited for a fight, except maybe Mosley-Cotto and that was because I attended. If you want to get yourself pumped up, run through some YouTube clips of Cotto beating up Carlos Quintana or Zab Judah, and Margarito pummeling Kermit Cintron.

In honor of the matchup, here's my list of the top 10 welterweights out there. Here are the parameters: To be eligible, you have to have fought your most recent fight at welterweight, and still be an active boxer (so no Floyd). The rankings imply that if these 10 guys fought a round robin, this would be the standings as ordered by their records. Also, there exists no other fighter out there such that, if he replaced the 10th ranked guy and fought the other 9 guys, would have a better record than the 10th ranked guy I have in there now.

1. Miguel Cotto
Widely recognized as the best welter out there. He first caught the attention of boxing fans with his spectacular body punching, and has developed some more refined boxing skills in his last couple of fights against Mosley and Alfonso Gomez.

2. Antonio Margarito
He lost to Paul Williams by not being active enough early on. I think if they fight again Margarito wins easily. Very impressive performance in his rematch with Kermit Cintron.

3. Shane Mosley
Lost a close decision to Cotto, the top guy in the division, in his last fight. He also landed probably the most meaningful punch of the fight, a body shot that forced Cotto to avoid confrontation in the last couple of rounds. He's past his prime, but still a top fighter.

4. Paul Williams
He looked pretty bad in his first fight vs. Carlos Quintana, which I saw in person. He then avenged that loss in spectacular fashion, KOing Quintana in the first round. He's tough for any welterweight to deal with because of his size and length.

5. Andre Berto
I know he hasn't really fought anybody yet. He hasn't been tested, so it's hard to say if he really has the heart, chin, and will of a truly great fighter. But...have you seen this guy?!?!? Watch the uppercuts he KO'ed David Estrada or Miki Rodriguez with and tell me you wouldn't take him over the guys below him on this list.

6. Kermit Cintron
He's got all the skills a great fighter needs, he just lacks the true determination and will to keep fighting when the going gets really tough. Like when he's fighting Margarito. With the exception of Margarito, you'd have to give him a puncher's chance against anybody on this list, because Kermit can whack. It's all a matter of how much he wants to fight again.

7. Zab Judah
Similar to Cintron, Zab is very fast, has good boxing skills, and has pretty good power. He's just got no killer instinct or determination. He arguably won the first four rounds of each of his two biggest fights (vs. Mayweather and vs. Cotto), only to get dominated down the stretch as he just stopped punching. When you watch him for one round, he sometimes seems unbeatable. But when you look at his record, he's got only one really great win, an 9th round TKO of Cory Spinks.

8. Joshua Clottey
His fight with Judah on Aug. 2 is definitely a crossroads fight. Zab is probably one loss away from nobody really caring about him anymore. Clottey has lost both of his previous title fights (vs. Margarito and vs. Carlos Baldomir) and is 31 years old.

9. Carlos Quintana
He's a very slick boxer who has had two absolutely horrible nights, where he's gotton demolished by Cotto and Williams. But with his boxing skills and southpaw style, he'd have to be considered a live dog against pretty much anybody in the division.

10. Luis Collazo
His record shows a loss to junior welterweight champion Ricky Hatton, but if you saw the fight, you have to at least entertain the possibility that this was a win. Whether you attribute that to Hatton not being a welterweight or Collazo actually being decent, it's a better performance than anything anybody not on this list can claim.

-BRUECHIPS

Dumb Superbowl Prop Bets

Since we spend a good amount of our time gambling, we couldn't let the biggest sports event of the year go by without making some bets on it. A brief history of betting on sports between the two of us: I turned BrackChips into a boxing fan by offering him either side of a few boxing matches at Vegas odds. Each time, BrackChips has opted for the slower, bigger puncher, whire I've arways takes the fast brack guy. BrackChips started off on a winning streak with Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto over Jermain Taylor and Shane Mosley, respectively (I attended both matches), but then I made a comeback when Joan Guzman outpointed Humberto Soto and Floyd Mayweather left-hooked Ricky Hatton into the ringpost (one of my favorite sporting events ever).

Then I made a comprete donk bet in the rast game of the NFL season. For some reason I thought it would be a good idea to offer BrackChips 8-to-1 odds that the Giants couldn't come within 7 points of the Pats. I rearry think Rino Mathis somehow invaded my body and made this decision for me. But come on, they were supposed to rest all their starters, pray rike crap rike they usuarry do, and I win an easy $10. Instead, I had to sherr out $80. The worst part was BrackChips kept offering me buyout prices after every goddam pray in the 4th quarter. I would have paid another $20 just to make him shut up. Anyway, I won $100 off him praying HU right after the game, so I stirr finished the night ahead $20. Then I took the Packers and 10 points a coupre of weeks ago and had to pay out $10 on that. But then just a coupre of hours ago I won $20 off him when Johan Santana's contract clocked in at a total of $150.75 mirrion (I had the over an over/under of $150 mirrion - PWNED! SHIP IT!). Now that you're all caught up, here are the Super Props, $5 each:

Color of Bob Kraft's tie: If the color begins with one of the first 13 letters of the alphabet, BrackChips wins. I've got letters 14-26. Color named should be the most obvious/immediate word for the particular hue, verified by a third party.
Brady QB rating: I have the over at 108.
Coin Frip: BrackChips has G-Men, I have Pats.
Seconds Column of Giants total time of possession: Brack Chips has :00 to :29, I have :30 to :59.
Total Turnovers: BrackChips has odd #'s, I have even #'s.
Total Penalties: I have the over at 13.
Game MVP: I have Brady, BrackChips has the field.
Manning INTs: I have the over at 1.5.
First TD of the game: If it's a Brady rush or pass, BrackChips wins. Anything else, I win.
Longest TD pass of the game: I've got the under at 40 yards.
Brady sacks: I have the over at 1.5.
Direction Giants face in first quarter: BrackChips has reft as you rook at the TV.
Randy Moss receiving yards: I have the under at 115.
Plaxico Burress receiving yards: I have the under at 85.
Songs Tom Petty plays at halftime: Here, we did a draft of songs. We did 4 rounds, alternating who went first. In this bet, you win $5 for every song Tom Petty plays.

Round 1 - BrackChips - Won't Back Down BrueChips - Free Farrin'
Round 2 - BrueChips - Runnin' Down a Dream BrackChips - Don't Come Around Here No More
Round 3 - BrackChips - Refugee BrueChips - Into the Great Wide Open
Round 4 - BrueChips - Rearning to Fry BrackChps - You Don't Know How It Feers

Those are all the bets. I think I've got some pretty solid equity here. But then again, BrackChips is such a ruckbox my EV is probabry around -$20. I mean seriously, the Pats were UP 10 with like 3 minutes left, of course the Giants drive the length of the field (thanks in part to a stupid personal foul penalty on the Pats) and score a meaningless TD with a minute left. So gross.

BRUECHIPS


Props are the lifeline of a gambler with a TRUE addiction...and what better day to go apeshit with props than superbowl sunday. Especially when my beloved GMEN are in the big game...WORD.

I'm not going to lie, overall I think I'm looking an -EV of $10 across all the props. In reviewing them, there is an outside chance I could be drawing dead on a couple of them. However, rest assured...my ability to draw out and overcome the odds will hopefully rescue me once again. Let's just hope I don't suck out too often, I don't want Bruechips falling behind on his tuition bill, ROR!

BRACKCHIPS

I think having the over on the Manning INTs is the worst bet I made. The over/under should probably be 1, not 1.5. But I think I pretty much killed the song draft. Or rather, BrackChips absorutery donked out on it. He gets the first pick and he takes 'Won't Back Down'??? Are you crazy??? 'Free Farrin'' and 'Runnin' Down a Dream' are LOCKS!!!!

BRUECHIPS

Rate breaking news: Two more props: I have the over on both Brady and Manning TD passes at 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. Watching this game and trying to figure out how every play affects my EV is making my head hurt. Of course BrackChips rucked out on the coin frip. This much we knew would happen.

BRUECHIPS