July 21, 2008

Showdown in Vegas This Weekend

Sports fans, do NOT miss out on perhaps the most exciting fight of this year as Miguel Cotto takes on Antonio Margarito for welterweight supremacy this Saturday in Las Vegas. If you're not a boxing fan or just have never seen a big fight before, get some buddies together and pony up the $50 for this PPV event. It will be well worth it. If you sprung for the Mayweather-De La Hoya fight a couple of years ago and were disappointed in the lack of action, this fight is for you. These guys are both warriors and neither one is a defensive master. Both of them come in the ring to break down and demolish their opponents.

Cotto comes in as a rising star with an undefeated record. Beating Margarito, after beating Shane Mosley last year in New York, would pretty much clean out the non-Mayweather welterweights and put him in the discussion for tops on the pound-for-pound list. Margarito is a grizzled veteran who has been working towards this fight for a long time. Personally, I can't remember ever being this excited for a fight, except maybe Mosley-Cotto and that was because I attended. If you want to get yourself pumped up, run through some YouTube clips of Cotto beating up Carlos Quintana or Zab Judah, and Margarito pummeling Kermit Cintron.

In honor of the matchup, here's my list of the top 10 welterweights out there. Here are the parameters: To be eligible, you have to have fought your most recent fight at welterweight, and still be an active boxer (so no Floyd). The rankings imply that if these 10 guys fought a round robin, this would be the standings as ordered by their records. Also, there exists no other fighter out there such that, if he replaced the 10th ranked guy and fought the other 9 guys, would have a better record than the 10th ranked guy I have in there now.

1. Miguel Cotto
Widely recognized as the best welter out there. He first caught the attention of boxing fans with his spectacular body punching, and has developed some more refined boxing skills in his last couple of fights against Mosley and Alfonso Gomez.

2. Antonio Margarito
He lost to Paul Williams by not being active enough early on. I think if they fight again Margarito wins easily. Very impressive performance in his rematch with Kermit Cintron.

3. Shane Mosley
Lost a close decision to Cotto, the top guy in the division, in his last fight. He also landed probably the most meaningful punch of the fight, a body shot that forced Cotto to avoid confrontation in the last couple of rounds. He's past his prime, but still a top fighter.

4. Paul Williams
He looked pretty bad in his first fight vs. Carlos Quintana, which I saw in person. He then avenged that loss in spectacular fashion, KOing Quintana in the first round. He's tough for any welterweight to deal with because of his size and length.

5. Andre Berto
I know he hasn't really fought anybody yet. He hasn't been tested, so it's hard to say if he really has the heart, chin, and will of a truly great fighter. But...have you seen this guy?!?!? Watch the uppercuts he KO'ed David Estrada or Miki Rodriguez with and tell me you wouldn't take him over the guys below him on this list.

6. Kermit Cintron
He's got all the skills a great fighter needs, he just lacks the true determination and will to keep fighting when the going gets really tough. Like when he's fighting Margarito. With the exception of Margarito, you'd have to give him a puncher's chance against anybody on this list, because Kermit can whack. It's all a matter of how much he wants to fight again.

7. Zab Judah
Similar to Cintron, Zab is very fast, has good boxing skills, and has pretty good power. He's just got no killer instinct or determination. He arguably won the first four rounds of each of his two biggest fights (vs. Mayweather and vs. Cotto), only to get dominated down the stretch as he just stopped punching. When you watch him for one round, he sometimes seems unbeatable. But when you look at his record, he's got only one really great win, an 9th round TKO of Cory Spinks.

8. Joshua Clottey
His fight with Judah on Aug. 2 is definitely a crossroads fight. Zab is probably one loss away from nobody really caring about him anymore. Clottey has lost both of his previous title fights (vs. Margarito and vs. Carlos Baldomir) and is 31 years old.

9. Carlos Quintana
He's a very slick boxer who has had two absolutely horrible nights, where he's gotton demolished by Cotto and Williams. But with his boxing skills and southpaw style, he'd have to be considered a live dog against pretty much anybody in the division.

10. Luis Collazo
His record shows a loss to junior welterweight champion Ricky Hatton, but if you saw the fight, you have to at least entertain the possibility that this was a win. Whether you attribute that to Hatton not being a welterweight or Collazo actually being decent, it's a better performance than anything anybody not on this list can claim.

-BRUECHIPS

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your blog is quickly becoming my top read. Good stuff!

jmrao said...

David - great job hyping the fight. Everyone please don't miss this war, if gain any pleasure by watching two men give it there all and beat the crap out of each other you owe it to yourself to watch this fight.

I will make a few comments on the list.

I don't think Collazo deserves a spot. Shane Mosley pretty much shut him out a year ago, winning nearly every round and dropping him with a nice left hook. I don't think he is as slick as Quintana your other "awkward southpaw" and he has zero pop. I have a hard time seeing him beating anyone on the list. Your rules make his replacement tough though, De La Hoya fought his last fight at 150 and actually came in under the limit by a few pounds. I think he would fight nicely at about 6 on your list, having lost about 8-4 to Money May and twice (albeit controversially) to Shane.

Playing within the rules I'd put a sleeper pick in their with Jose Soto Karass. Karass is basically a poor man's Margarito, he throws in volume and has iron in check bones. That being said, he is slow and easy to hit. But in fights vs. Clottey and Quintana volume punching could be enough as those guys are economical with their shots. Furthermore, Karass' relentless attack could cause Kermit Cintron to shit himself as he wont to do when the going gets tough.

The most controversial selection on your list is Berto. I agree he is top 10, but he has never fought anyone else in the top 20 of the division. He pulls his jab back low and is susceptiable to overhand rights. He also sometimes leads with his chin when he jumps in, now he is so fucking fast that it hasn't mattered yet but one button counter could end his night. Let's face it, the man has never been in the ring with a guy with any pop.

J

spritpot said...

Thanks for the comments, guys. J, you definitely hit on what were the two closest decisions for me: ranking Berto that high, and putting Collazo at 10. Soto Karass is the guy I was looking at for the 10th spot in his place. I wouldn't fault anybody for putting him there over Collazo, but here was my reasoning: Yes, Soto Karass throws a lot of punches, but if you look at his record, he's got three losses in a row three years ago, and two draws since. Collazo was dominated by Mosley, Karass was dominated by Yuri Foreman, a lesser fighter than Mosley. Neither one of them would really have a shot against the top 4 guys, so just throw those guys out and consider the guys ranked 5-9. I think Collazo would have a better chance of frustrating Berto, who has never faced a southpaw as far as I know. I don't think Karass could outwork or outmuscle Berto. Vs Judah and Cintron, maybe Karass can wear them down, but I think he's just too slow. I'd give Collazo half of a chance vs. Judah at least. Karass' best shot would be against Clottey, I think. And I wouldn't give Collazo much of a chance vs. Clottey. But then I think Quintana cruises to an easy win vs. Karass. Neither one will ever be a top five guy. But I think Collazo is just a liver dog in these fights, as evidenced by the fight vs. Hatton. We'll find out more after Karass fights David Estrada, who's actually not bad. His only losses are to Ishe Smith, Mosley, Berto, and Cintron.

For ranking Berto at 5, part of it is I'm just a big Berto fan, having seen a couple of his fights live and loving his explosive style. But I honestly think he'd beat the guys below him on the list, and have the best chance of any of them to beat the guys above him. He did get hit a little bit by David Estrada and seemed to take it well.

Obviously if I were making a list of all guys that could make 147, Oscar would be on it. Ricky Hatton would be a possibility too, but after watching his last couple of fights, I don't think he's a top 10 welterweight.

jmrao said...

If it was guys who could make 147 and fight within the next 6 months my list would be:
1) Money May
2) Cotto
3) Margarito
4) Shane
5) Golden Boy
6) P Will
7) Cory Spinks
8) Judah
9) Cintron
10) Pacman

I put Money on the list because I think he fights at 147 within the next year. DLH can easily make 147 and has a shot at beating anyone on the list. Cory Spinks hasn't fought at 147 in 2 years but he easily makes the jr. middle limit. He is probably the hardest guy to hit in boxing save Money May (with Christian Mijares also in the mix). One selection I know people will get on me about is Pacman at #10.

But there are my points:
a) Manny is 5'7", about the same height as Berto and only a few inches shorter than Cotto and Mosley.
b) Manny is a very smart boxer
c) he is faster than everyone on the list except May
d) he has brought his power with him from 106 to 135, there is a decent chance he brings it to 147.

Ask yourself this, if Manny was fighting Josh Clottey would you really bet on the Hitter?

Hatton lost to Collazo and that was before getting to KTFO'd by Mayweather. Not only does he lose to everyone on my list, he gets KO'd by everyone except Pacman and Spinks. Spinks shuts him out and Pacman outworks him for a UD. I mean Juan "The Hispanic Causing Panic" Lazcano had Hatton badly hurt in his last fight. Not to take anything away from my fellow Texan, but Lazcano hasn't been causing panic for some years now - prior to losing to Hatton he had not fought for well over a year following a clear decision loss to Junior Witter's KO victim Vivian Harris.