Villains Don't Like to Admit Mistakes

I won't include any specific hand histories in this post because the situations are so general. But imagine the following hands: you raise pre-flop and are called by a blind. Flop comes K93r and the blind check-calls your c-bet. The turn is a 4 and the blind checks. Now consider the same situation, except with a 934r flop and a K turn. In which situation is the donkey in the blind more likely to call down a second barrel with a marginal hand...say...J9?

It seems to me that the answer is the first (although I'd love to hear other opinions in comments). The reason is that the villain usually forms an opinion of the hands he can beat on the flop, and if he calls, he has decided you've got one of those hands. Most donkeys have no concept of ranges and adjusting them due to your actions as the hand progresses. They just see K93r, decide you have AQ, and call down as long as they can beat AQ. Folding a blank turn would entail admitting that they were wrong, something that no one, especially poker players, likes to do.

However, something everyone likes to do, again especially poker players, is to blame their losses and failures on bad luck. Which is what the villain can easily do on the 934K board. He can think, "well, I made a good call on the flop, but he got lucky and caught a turn card. I have played this hand perfectly, having put him on AK from the start. I'll just fold now that he has caught up."

So in general when you're multi-barrel bluffing, I think it's easier to convince and opponent that you have improved to make a better hand (so pay attention to how the board comes out and if you can plausibly do that), rather than that you have a stronger hand than your opponent thought on the flop.

-BRUECHIPS