A case of the Mondays (Part 3)

http://tinyurl.com/nnev6q

-BRACKCHIPS

Brack is Beautiful (Part 19), ATM FTW!

True HH, Bruechips was actually railing me at the time...no commentary/analysis necessary, this one plays itself out.

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/252376

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $600.00

UTG+1: $652.00

MP: $1544.60

CO: $93.00

BTN: $1008.00

SB: $2330.15

Hero (BB): $858.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is BB with Ts Ks

2 folds, MP raises to $24, 3 folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($51.00) 2s 9s Qh (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($99.00) 8s (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $99, Hero raises to $330, MP calls $231

River: ($759.00) 7s (2 players)

Hero bets $480 all in, MP calls $480

Final Pot: $1719.00

MP mucks Jh 7c

Hero shows Ts Ks (a flush, King high)

Hero wins $1716.00

(Rake: $3.00)

-BRACKCHIPS

BTW, how often is it that you frop no pair and have your virrain drawing that thin, even though he shares no cards with you? 93% equity on the frop with K-high vs. J-high ROR.

-BRUECHIPS

Yer Gonna Rove My Nuts! (Part 9)

Despite this virrain being on the nitty side, I managed to hoodwink him into committing himself drawing pretty thin:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/250963

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $71.25

CO: $9.25

BTN: $52.30

Hero (SB): $54.90

BB: $20.00

UTG: $50.00

UTG+1: $70.90

MP1: $11.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ad Ah

5 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.75

Flop: ($13.50) 2s Qs 9c (2 players)

Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9

Turn: ($31.50) 6c (2 players) (Pretty standard up to this point with me 3-betting the nuts preflop and c-betting a Q-high draw-y frop. I think the turn is a good spot to check/raise all-in because 1) Since the board has draws on it, a lot of the times that I'm checking this turn I'm giving up and folding, 2) I don't think he'll call 3 streets with less than a Q, so I don't lose much value by him checking back, say, JJ 3) If he has some sort of draw or float, he'll probably bet the turn if I check, so I don't worry too much about giving a free card.)

Hero checks, BTN bets $27.50, Hero raises to $39.40 all in, BTN calls $9.30 all in

River: ($105.10) 3c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $105.10

BTN shows 8h 7h (Queen Nine high)

Hero shows Ad Ah (a pair of Aces)

Hero wins $102.10

Did not expect him to peel the frop THAT light!! He did pick up an open-ender on the turn, but peeling the frop with 8-high no draw is pretty roose. As I said, I am folding a lot of the time I check this turn so it's not terrible terrible...but I don't think I check it THAT often - I will be double barreling it quite a bit. I definitely got furr varue out of that part of his range by checking here though, and I don't think I rose too much varue when he has a decent hand.

-BRUECHIPS

A case of the Mondays (Part 2)

Take a look!

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1918771

My Play with the TT

Thanks to all the commenters on my last post. I think it's super close between folding and shoving. Calling and then folding at some point seems pretty spewy, as does calling and then calling a 4b shove from MP...4-betting and then folding is even worse. I think 4-bet/calling is essentially the same as shoving, so I'm not going to differentiate between the two in my analysis.

The first step is making a guess at the shorty's range. Given that MP opens pretty loose and CO is a donk with 40 bbs, it's an awesome spot for him to squeeze. I'd make his range something like 66+, AT+, although I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up with lower pp's, lower aces, and the occasional KQ/KJ. Against that range I have 54.8% equity. If I shove and get heads up with the shorty and win, then I win (22.2 + 7 + 1.5)*.9 = 27.63 (the .9 is there to account for the rake). If I lose, then I lose 22.2. So my EV given that I get HU with the shorty is:

.548*27.63 - .452*22.2 = 5.1.

So that would be clearly good, to get HU with the shorty. The issue is how often that happens, and how much equity I have when MP calls my shove. I'd estimate his range for calling my shove to be pretty much exactly JJ+ and AK, with some possibility of him folding JJ. But say he sticks around with JJ. Then in a 3-way pot, my TT has 26.3% equity. That is, 26.3% of the time, I win the whole thing. In this case I win 102.6 + 3.5 + 22.2 + 1.5 - 3 (the rake) = 126.8. Then sometimes I win the side but not the main (when I beat MP but the shorty beats me). The shorty wins 26% of the time, so maybe 10% of the time I win the side but not the main (I don't know how to get PS to do this, so it's a well-informed guess). In this case I win 80.4 - 22.2 = 58.2. If I lose both, I lose 102.2. So given that MP calls, my expected profit is:

.263*126.8 + .1*58.2 - .637*102.6 = -26.2

So that's obviously bad. But it doesn't happen all the time! AK and JJ+ represent about 3.2% of all hands. They're maybe a LITTLE bit less likely given that the shorty has shoved (more likely to have some high cards), and also that the CO called (more likely to be QJo than 56o, for instance). But then I have TT, and not T's are in his calling range. On net, I don't think I can make too many conclusions based on card removal. But he's calling about 3% of his range. How often does he have to fold for me to show a profit? In other words, what's the solution to this equation:

5.1*f - (1-f)*26.2 > 0

Answer: f > .837. So if he's calling 3%, he has to be opening .03/(1-.837) = 18.4% for me to show a profit. And I'm pretty sure that's the case. Folded to him in the hijack, he's 19/15 overall...I'd guess he's raising something like 20-25% from there. But it's razor thin. If the shortstack were a bit tighter, for instance, I'd need more folds from MP and the play wouldn't be profitable anymore. I've also just assumed that CO will fold every time, which is probably a fair assumption, but if he slowplays AA or KK a significant % of the time that might swing the play to -EV. In any case, I did shove and MP used almost his entire time bank before calling with JJ. The shorty had AK and the board bricked off. So, in summary, it's quite close and I couldn't fault a fold, but shoving probably slightly better.

-BRUECHIPS

NEW SERIES - A case of the Mondays (Part 1)

I'm a bit bored with poker content right now so I figured I'd start up a new non poker series...

This new series is going to be dedicated to giving everyone coming back to work after the weekend a good laugh. Each week I will try and dig up a new and entertaining clip and post it here.

We'll start the series with George Brett. It's not baseball related...so you will just have to watch!

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6403VV2oyu0

-BRACKCHIPS

Another WWYD...

Original raiser is 19/15 or so, not too much info on anybody else in the hand...Also note that it's 7-handed, so MP is also the hijack:

Full Tilt p0ker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/233057
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $23.65
MP: $128.50
CO: $41.50
BTN: $22.20
SB: $85.50
Hero (BB): $102.60
UTG: $132.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Td Th
2 folds, MP raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN raises to $22.20 all in, 1 fold, Hero ???

-BRUECHIPS

Part 2 of CR Vid Going Up Today...

CardRunners is publishing the second part of my game theory series today. As always, please go forth and watch and comment if you have a CR membership (attainable at no cost through truly free poker training). For readers who are not CR members, you're missing out (on a lot of awesome CR content, not just my vids)!

-BRUECHIPS

Blogger alternative suggestions PLEASE

Spritpot has been utirizing Brogger since the inception of our blog 18 months ago. Its been a rocky relationship with Brogger...we both agree that their software is the ABSOLUTE NUT low. Its terrible - full of bugs, restrictions, and all kinds of assorted gheyness.

If you have any suggestions for alternative blogging software solutions...please comment! Also - suggestions with regards to transferring our current blog to a new program would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!
-BRACKCHIPS

Thanks for Not Stacking Me, Bro! (Part 18)

Long time no blog…Bruechips has been flat out DOMINATING the spritpot airwaves. I took almost a month off the game (the longest I have ever taken off) after a gross-ish June - the RNG just left me helpless. I played a mix of NLHE games ranging from my standard 2/4 game all the way up to a few hands of 25/50 cap and ended up getting tuned up by the RNG to the equivilant of 40 bi’s in my normal 400 game. Granted some of it was at higher stakes…but it just left a bitter taste in my mouth (that’s what she said!).

Off the whine train and onto our regularly sked’d program…poker!!!

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/226596

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $410.00

BTN: $561.00

SB: $559.50

Hero (BB): $803.00

UTG: $260.10

UTG+1: $456.00

MP: $180.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 7c 7s

4 folds, BTN raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $11

(this is pretty standard for me…although an argument could be made for a 3b. 77 is towards the top of my flatting range vs a CO open. It doesn’t play fantasticly postfrop oop, but I knew my villain to be somewhat passive and felt like I could wrestle the pot away in most spots. If there was another caller I’d be more inclined to sqeeze.)

Flop: ($32.00) 7d 5c Jc (2 players)

Hero bets $24, BTN calls $24

(Can you say nuts? If he has Jacks then FML…but I would never consider folding here for 100bbs. Considering my opponent is so passive and does not c-bet enough…its time to put some money in the pot, there are a multiple draws out…and I will certainly get called by ANY one pair hand.)

Turn: ($80.00) 6d (2 players)

Hero bets $64, BTN calls $64

(89 compretes here but I’m making another VB, I figure he has a one pair type hand at best…when he does not raise here I’m quite confident that my hand is best).

River: ($208.00) 8s (2 players)

Hero bets $144, BTN calls $144

(this decision actually was not at close as it looks. Granted there is a one liner straight out there…but I STILL have him on a one pair hand, and my hand does not look like particularly strong. Honestly in retrospect its tough for me to figure out what I was repping here, its quite rare when I call an open oop and donk the frop, turn, and river. I think he still calls my river bet with any one pair hand, and letting him check back QQ+, Jx, or a 2 pair hand would be pretty ghey.)

Final Pot: $496.00

BTN shows 8d 9c (a straight, Nine high)

Hero shows 7c 7s (three of a kind, Sevens)

BTN wins $493.00

(well he shows up with the second nuts, ROR! I flop the second nuts, he ends up with the second nuts and I loses a TON of value. Clearly he must have had me on 9T not to raise that river, ROR. I insta stack off on the turn without HESITATION…and its very thin regarding calling a river raise.)

-BRACKCHIPS