August 17, 2008

One Pair Gold for 200 bbs?

It's kind of a cliche but a hard-earned lesson that one pair is usually not good for winning a big pot in NLHE. Here's one spot where I did put in a lot of money with one pair. I think this is the right play, but again, I'd be open to comments. The SB was an extremely aggressive player, something like 30/25, three-betting about 10%, and playing very aggressively post-flop as well.

Seat 2: SB ($89.25)
Seat 3: bruechips (BB) ($100)
Seat 4: CO ($50.15)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bruechips [As Ks]
CO raises to $2.25
SB calls $2
bruechips raises to $9.50 (This part is pretty standard...I would be very happy to get all of my money in before the flop with either of these players although probably not both - i.e., if CO were to shove and the SB shove over the top or call, I would probably fold, but if either one were to raise and the other fold, I would shove)
CO calls $7.25 (Probably a mid-pp)
SB calls $7.25 (Not quite sure what to make of his range here but it can't be too strong since he would have re-raised the CO with big pairs and big aces. I'm kind of thinking mid-pps and suited connectors for him as well)

*** FLOP *** [Qd Th Kh]
SB checks
bruechips bets $22 (This kind of looks like a nightmare of a flop, but it doesn't hit the ranges I had for these other players very hard. CO has about $40, SB about $80. I think checking is no good because it gives a bunch of random hands like T9 or 77 that would fold a chance to improve. Also there are just so many gross turn cards that allow the SB to lead into me and force me to fold even if he doesn't have it. The only hands I'm really afraid of are the CO having TT, or either of the two players having AJs or KQs. But even these two latter ones I think don't come up too much. Most players realize these aren't good hands to take into 3-bet pots multiway. When I get played back at, it's mostly pair+draw or straight+flush draw type hands. Against a range of AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, Ace-high hearts not including AhQh, 9h8h, 8h7h, and 7h6h, I've got just over 51% equity. That goes down significantly if you include AJo and KQo, but again I think CO is folding a lot of the time with those hands, and the SB is three-betting them, or perhaps calling and then folding to my re-raise. So to account for the idea that these hands are only in their range some of the time, I just included the suited versions.)
CO folds
SB raises to $79.75, and is all in (I'd rather it be the shorter stack, but OK....)
bruechips calls $57.75
SB shows [9h 8h]

*** TURN *** [Qd Th Kh] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [Qd Th Kh 6h] [2h]

So in this case I got lucky that I had the best hand on the flop and then unlucky that he made a better hand on the turn. I'm not a big fan of the SB's play. I think my re-raise preflop was big enough to price him out. And on the flop, it's pretty rare that I'd bet-fold this flop in a multi-way pot. MAYBE maybe AQ with no hearts...but even that I think I'd check the flop. When I put in more than 1/2 of what the CO has left, it's pretty clear that I have something, and given that I re-raised preflop, even though it was in a squeeze spot, there are a lot of ways that I can hit this flop very hard. I can certainly represent a whole lot more than the SB can, who didn't raise preflop and therefore doesn't have much of a claim on this board. So he has a lot of reason to believe I have a good hand, I have little reason to believe he has a good hand, and his raise needs at least some fold equity to be profitable, since most of the time at least some of his outs will be dead: if the J wins for him (i.e., if I don't have an A), then I probably have either one or two jacks myself, taking away some of his outs, and often I've got at least the Ah or maybe even Ahxh, which has him in very rough shape.

-BRUECHIPS

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Excerrent hand to rook at and review.

Preflop I don't think he is priced out. He's getting 3-1 on his money in a multi-way pot with the sooted connectors. If he believes your raise represents a big hand (QQ+ & AK), he's getting the right price.

On the flop I think he's put himself in the position that he must play the hand for stacks since he was willing to call the 3-bet pre. This is one of the flops he's looking for (big draws).

That being said, the flop had to have hit you thus reducing his fold equity. If you held QQ or KK, his draws aren't in as good a shape since you have a redraw.

I guess my question is do you have to call off 100bb's when he shoves on you? I think the worst hand he holds there is JT and the 89s is only slightly above that. KQ, TT and even QTs is in his range. You've announced you hit and now so has he with a more powerful check/raise.

spritpot said...

Thanks for the comment. As for calling off on the end, keep in mind that I'm getting better than 2:1 on my money. There's about $30 in the pot preflop, plus the $44 in the pot from my bet and his call of that bet, which makes $74 total and I have to call off $58 more. Even if you put TT in his range (and I think this is not really right as I'm almost positive he re-raises preflop) and QTs (more reasonable, but maybe a fold to my 3-b or 3-b the original raiser more often than call/call), AND ANY KQ or AJ (not just the suited ones), my equity is still 33%, so I should call even in that case. And again, I think it's VERY rare for him to play TT like this, and pretty rare for him to play AJo or KQo this way as well

spritpot said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
spritpot said...

Sorry I meant 37% vs. that range...I forgot to include QJs and KJs the first time...here's the range I have 37% equity against:

TT,AJs,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,
Ah3h,Ah2h,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,9h8h,
8h7h,7h6h,AJo,KQo