THIN! (Part 7)

One of the most important things to do while you're playing, in my opinion, is to keep track throughout the whole hand of what you think your opponent's range is, how he will play each part of it, AND how you will react to those plays. Here's a hand I played against an aggressive villain where I got some very thin value by inducing him to make a pretty horrific shove:

Seat 2: MP1 ($209.60)
Seat 5: HERO (CO) ($200)

*** HOLE CARDS **

Dealt to HERO [Kd Ks]
MP1 raises to $7
MP2 calls $7
HERO raises to $34 (Pretty standard re-raise with the second nuts preflop. I want to make it pretty big because there's a caller in the middle. Making the bigger re-raise might look it a little more like just a squeeze, and also I have a better chance of getting to just heads-up, which is what I want. If I make it $25 or so, MP1 will be calling much more often, at which point MP2 will be priced in with all his JTs/66 type of hands that could easily own me on the frop.)
MP1 has requested TIME
MP1 calls $27 (This guy was a pretty aggressive player...I think about 20/16/6. Since my raise looks like it could be a squeeze, I think he'd be 4-betting AK, but it's possible he could be calling AK. I think AQ he would be either 4-betting or folding, although there might be a slight chance he'd call and see a flop with AQs. But in my mind most of his range is pocket pairs. And I doubt he'd slowplay AA - he doesn't want to go multiway with AA any more than I do with KK. So to me he's got 77-QQ probably 80% of the time. QQ-TT or so he's calling because he thinks he has the best hand a lot of the time but doesn't want to get it all in preflop with them. 77-99 he's probably hoping MP2 calls so that he has odds to draw to a set.)
MP2 folds (Good result. Overall, the preflop action went exactly as I wanted - I got a lot of money in, with position, and it's down to heads up.)

** FLOP ** [As 6h 2h]
MP1 checks
HERO checks (Obviously not the flop I wanted. Not so much because I'm afraid I'm behind now, because as I said, I think he doesn't have an ace that often. More because it's harder for me to get value from the pocket pairs, which are now afraid of the ace. Checking behind here is kind of risky because you're just giving those pocket pairs free draws to a set, 1) but if he has an ace, he's never folding 2) I could catch a king and stack AQ, 3) he's aggressive enough that I could get value catching some bluffs on later streets if I check behind. I probably check this flop behind more than most players in general. If I had AK or especially AQ, I would check a good percentage of the time as well.)

*** TURN ** [As 6h 2h] [Ad]
MP1 checks
HERO checks (Awesome turn card. I am now more confident in my hand, because he's less likely to have an ace, AND he's thinking the same thing if he's sitting on a pocket pair himself. I could bet here, but I think it's slightly possible he could check an ace or 66 twice and I'd rather keep the pot small for now, because if he has QQ-TT, he will probably only call one bet, and I can wait until the river to see him check again before making that bet.)

*** RIVER ** [As 6h 2h Ad] [9s]
MP1 checks
HERO bets $50 (When he checks again, I'm pretty sure my hand is best. I don't think he'd have the patience to check 66 or AQ THREE times. He could check-raise 99, but 1) I'm not totally sure he'd call my re-raise preflop with 99, so it's a little bit less of his range, 2) I think he'd be leading it most of the time because it looks like I have exactly what I have, a big pocket pair, and he probably thinks I'll check behind on the river with those hands a lot, as I probably would if I had a slightly weaker hand, like JJ. So I bet to try and get value from QQ-TT. But before doing so, realizing I'm up against an aggressive player, I think about what I'm going to do if he shoves. Since it really doesn't look like I have an ace after I checked the flop and the turn, I think my bet will induce some bluffs. Enough of them that checking behind would be better than bet-folding. So I decide to trust my read that I have the best hand, and bet-call. If we had been a little deeper, I might have just checked behind.)
MP1 raises to $175.60, and is all in
HERO calls $116, and is all in

*** SHOW DOWN ***
MP1 shows [Qc Qd] two pair, Aces and Queens
HERO wins the pot ($407) with two pair, Aces and Kings

So I made a pretty thin call on the river that turned out to be good. I will get owned there sometimes, but I think this is a good call long term. His shove with QQ on the river is, in my opinion, horrific. If he's shoving for value, it's way too thin, since he is not ahead of my calling range. If he thinks I'm calling with JJ, then he has to think I'll call with KK as well, plus any ace I could have been slowplaying or boat that I rivered. Even if the only time I'd slowplay is if I had AA, and I'd only be re-raising 99 preflop 1/2 the time, that's still 6 KK combos, 1 AA combo, plus 1.5 99 combos, which is more than the 6 JJ combos he'd be getting value from. Remember, if you're raising for value, you have to be ahead of your opponent's CALLING range, so he has to beat more combos in my calling range than he loses to, which is definitely not the case.

If he's raising as a bluff, it's almost as bad. The only hand he's behind that I might consider folding is KK. And he's spending $175 to win $120. Which means his bluff has to be successful AGAINST HANDS THAT HE BEATS 175/(120+175) = 60% of the time. It doesn't matter if he raises and gets me to fold TT, he would have beaten that hand by calling and winning at showdown anyway. "Bluffing" out a worse hand has no value. Going back to the range above, if I'm folding KK, then he's folding out 6/(6+1+1.5) of the hands he beats, which is slightly more than 60%, but I think I do check down AQ to the river occasionally. And of course I end up making the call with KK, so the point is pretty much moot.

His play here should definitely be to call. It's not that I'm never bluffing or that I'm doing a good job of repping an ace. It's that his hand beats pretty much all my bluffs, and the hands that he loses to are pretty much never folding.

-BRUECHIPS