Responding to a Comment from a While Back....

Unfortunately I usually don't notice when people put up a comment on a post that's more than a few days old. So today I randomly noticed that Pinky commented on a post from a couple of months ago. I thought I'd respond in a post, since if I responded with another comment it would probably go unnoticed. If you're too lazy to click back to read the original post, I flat-called a 3-bet preflop with KK and then called down three streets on a 597hh2A board 200 bbs deep. The villain had TT. Pinky wondered if I'd get as much value by raising the flop, and what I would do if the villain checked the river (I had position). My response:

I think it's very VERY unlikely I'd get 200 bbs in on the flop vs. this player with TT. If 200 bbs goes in on this flop, I'm probably behind, either to AA, a set, or some huge draw like JhTh or Ah8h. If I raise the flop, he probably calls and then check/folds the turn, or maybe check/calls turn and check/folds river, depending on how I sized my bets.

As far as the river, if he checks, I probably check back, because, as I said, his checking range after barreling twice is mostly total air and a pair of aces. When I bet he obviously folds air and calls with top pair. The only case for betting would be to fold out a weak ace. Even if his checking range does include QQ-TT sometimes, the % of time he calls a shove with those hands isn't high enough to compensate for the frequency with which he's calling with top pair. Even if he's check/calling QQ-TT 100% of the time, that's 18 combos of hands. AK and AQ add up to 24 hands. Throw in A3,A4,A6,A8,AT,AJ of hearts, that's 6 more hands. I'm positive he would be double barreling those heart draws (although maybe not 3-betting them preflop). AK and AQ I'd expect a 3-bet preflop pretty much always, but a second barrel on the turn only some of the time. On the other hand, he'd 3-b preflop and second barrel the turn with AJ or AT occasionally too. In any case, it's pretty clear that 1) there's a bigger universe of potential top pair hands than pocket pair hands that I beat, and 2) he would have to be more likely to call with top pair, having checked, than QQ-TT. Combining these two facts, and the fact that for me to make money by value betting I have to have better than 50% equity vs. his CALLING range, I would check down if he checked in front of me. If I thought he were capable of a hero call with 88 or T9 or something, I might change my mind, but I would have to have a pretty good read on a player before thinking they're capable of that, as I think it's rare.

-BRUECHIPS