Long time no post...I've been completely beaten down this month - games are tougher, I'm running like poo, I haven't been as sharp, and confidence is down. Recipe for disasater for sure...ROR. Well the focus of this post is to look at a few hands where I 3b the flop.
Games are becoming increasingly aggro lately - everyone understands c-betting and how profitable it can be...thus people are leveraging their position with raises. Obviously one method for combatting this strategy is to 3b...a strategy that right now is used pretty infrequently. If you are going implement this into your arsenal - you need to think a little deeper.
Check out the two examples...
Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
BTN: $257.90
SB: $258.80
Hero (BB): $607
UTG: $410
MP: $62.90
CO: $334.90
Pre-Flop: 6s Qh dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN calls $4, SB calls $2, Hero checks
(pretty standard x through here with rags, but we have a donk alert with the button limping - stay tuned.)
Flop: ($12) Tc 2d Ks (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $36, SB folds, Hero raises to $70
(ok this is where things get interesting...I opt to lead with the intention of 3b'ing the B bc of his limp - he has a relatively high steal % so him not opening the B eliminates quite a bit of his range. The B goes ahead and raises my lead and I follow through with a min 3b which gets him to insta fold. On this board I can rep a pretty wide range, bottom set, any two pair combo, QJ, and the occasion Kx type hand. If he decides to call the 3b on the frop - I'm bombing the turn unless the QJ draw completes.)
Results: $84 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 6s Qh and WON $81 (+$41 NET)
Unfortunately this one did not turn out so well...crashed and burned in an epic fashion.
Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
UTG+1: $91.70
UTG+2: $444.10
MP1: $406
MP2: $900
CO: $468
BTN: $450.40
Hero (SB): $402
BB: $400
UTG: $92.70
Pre-Flop: Td 9c dealt to Hero (SB)
7 folds, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8
(standard open in the CO)
Flop: ($24) Ks 3c Jd (2 Players)
Hero bets $14, BB raises to $42, Hero raises to $104, BB calls $62
(this board is SOOOO dry that when my C bet gets raised by a semi competent regular who propensity to raise more than the fair share of c bets, I feel obligated to put in another bet in order to rep the absolute top of my range - AA, KJ, and sets. It is a bit thin with my gutter ball (which could potentially be no good) but I think I can blow him off Jx, 44-88. The only value raise he is making on this board is with KJ, 33, and the occasional KQ. I am certain he will 3b other value raising combos. QT is the only draw out there...could have that - my 3b is small enough that it is definitely profitable for him to call.)
Turn: ($232) 7c (2 Players)
Hero bets $112, BB calls $112
(sick turn, I open up a double gutter...I had intended to bet the turn regardless - but some added value is nice. I was very close to overbet shoving the turn...but i thought a small bet would be scarier.)
River: ($456) 2h (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks
(for some reason, my vagina swells to epic proportions and I can't put the rest in...let's see how things work out for T high? Somehow I convinced myself that he could not fold KQ).
Results: $456 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Td 9c (King Jack high) and LOST (-$228 NET)
BB showed Qs Th (King Queen high) and WON $453 (+$225 NET)
(Q high outkicks T high for 56 bb's...FML)
When thinking back on this - first off I need to shove that river with T high no matter what. That being said, even if I do get looked up by KQ - SO EFFING WHAT? Gotta think back to my Gbucks equity...which absolutely DESTROYS KQ.
-BRACKCHIPS
8 comments:
Key of entire post is that last line about G-bucks, which is just so true (even moreso vs. live donks than online villains).
-PL
Sick hands. In the 2nd hand, what hands besides QT would call you on the flop and turn, but fold to a river shove? I think there's a lot more hands that call in that range than fold.
Hey Todd - are you asking what other hands than KQ will call a river shove?
Hand 3 is a 3-barreler for sure. He only calls with KJ or baby set.
Fuel - ya especially since I have zero showdown value...and given my line, most of my range will include monsters. Also, I'm near certain I will face more heat when up against 33 and KJ on either the frop or the turn.
I'm trying to figure out how many hands would fold, and how many hands would call your river bet.
If more hands fold than call, then you've got to bet the river. But I think his range is much more weighted towards calling hands.
The hands that would raise/call on the flop then call the turn AND CALL THE RIVER are KQ, 2pr hands, set of 3's. (I think it's fair to leave out AQ, AK, JJ-AA)
The hands that would play like that, and then fold on the river are, draws....and there aren't that many. It's easy to say QT in hindsight, but what other draws are there? Maybe a gutshot like Q9,(AQ is unlikely because he'd prob 3b Pre) or maybe a back door Ax flush draw, which gets narrowed down on the turn to a Acxc flush draw.
Unless you can create a better range for the villain here, I think you checking the river is the best possible play. It just happened to be the one of the very few hands that folds to a river bet.
Todd - thanks for weighing in.
First off, I don't think I mentioned this earlier, but KQ prolly a 3b for this particular villain in a blind battle given that I'm opening a ginormous amount of the time. KQo right on the edge but I'm certain that KQs is coming over the top pre more often than not.
With regards to hands that raise/call the flop...I know you mentioned that KQ, 2 pair, and 333 - but my argument against the latter two is that he would simply 4b the flop (to which I would obv fold) given that I am repping a monster. It's pretty rare that I will bet, 3b a flop with complete rags...the bottom end of my range for doing this weighs heavily towards TPTK, and even with that hand I might just call the raise OOP.
Given that I have ZERO showdown value, I feel that I simply have to shove the river. He'd be getting a little more than 3-1 on his money so he needs to be good about 25% of the time. If he ever has a Jx hand that he folds and OCCASIONALLY folds a Kx hand, I think its a reasonable shove. Oh ya...and Q high too - FML :)
You're right. Given his propensity to fast play a big hand, the range I had given you for calling is more likely to 4b you on the flop or raise you on the turn. Therefore we can narrow his range on the river down to a weak range that can't call your river bet.
Thanks for your clarification. GL with 2/4.
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