Dear Spritpot readers,
Sorry for the rack of posts recently - I went to a conference last weekend in DC and headed up to NYC for a few days to catch up with some friends. Not too much time for poker playing and even less time for brog posting. Had a great time though. How does anybody ever go to NYC and NOT enjoy themselves? I've traveled all over the world, and there's really one city that stands out above all others, and it's New York. There's just no place like it. I hope at some point I'll get a chance to live there. Brackchips is also doing some traveling of his own, trying to run down some chicks in Eastern Europe or something.
Anyway I'm back in San Diego now, and I've got this hand to add to my list of hands that confirm my growing belief that AK should pretty much never be folded preflop for 125bb or less, unless you're in EP and get action from some major nits. In this case I'm in late position, and needless to say the player I'm getting action from here wasn't too nitty:
UTG+1: $130.40
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $168.70
CO: $164.60
Hero (BTN): $119.75
SB: $179.15
BB: $213.85
UTG: $200.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Ac Ks
3 folds, MP2 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13.50, SB raises to $179.15 all in, 2 folds, Hero calls $106.25 all in
Flop: ($244.50) 2h 8s 4s
Turn: ($244.50) 7c
River: ($244.50) Kh
Final Pot: $244.50
Hero shows Ac Ks (a pair of Kings)
SB shows Th Jh (King Jack high)
Hero wins $241.50
-BRUECHIPS
2 comments:
Are you adding a lot of volatility to your session by either flipping one way or the other a lot. I mean your not much ahead of TJ... or since it is cash any small edge should be pushed to the extreme?
Well, certainly at these stakes I don't care about minimizing variance, only maximizing expected value.
But even if I did care about variance, my advantage is way too big here to fold, especially given the money already in the pot. I'm calling 106 to win 135, so I should call if I have more than 44% equity. Given that he's shoving in JTs, he's probably also shoving in a crapload of other aces that I dominate, as well as occasional other suited hands. I also don't think he'd shove with AA/KK. In any case, depending on what range you give him, my equity is somewhere between 50 and 60%, or 6-16% bigger than what I need to break even. Put another way, folding I lose $13.50 for sure. Calling I win between $0 and $24 in expectation. That's a BIG difference. Like, probably about as much as I would expect to win with AA.
Basically, if you're folding here vs. this nutjob, you need to move down in stakes or buy in short because you're just not comfortable with the amount in play.
-bruechips
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