WWYD - My Play

Thanks to everyone who commented on my last post. I thought it was an interesting hand since every decision I had in the hand was a close one, where I could have easily made a different play. I'll go through my thoughts on earlier streets and then my river play and the results:

Hero (MP2): $150.30

CO: $101.30

BTN: $100.00

SB: $159.50

BB: $93.15

UTG: $100.00

UTG+1: $202.60

UTG+2: $95.55

MP1: $57.40

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ks Ah

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, 1 fold (I do 3-bet here quite a bit, but I have been just calling with AK, especially suited, in position more frequently of late. There are a few reasons I thought this was a good time for that here. First, the UTG+1 raiser is loose and aggressive. He should therefore be raising a good deal of ace-high hands that I dominate, but will often fold them to a re-raise. From these hands I can get pretty good value post-flop if an A flops or we both hit our kicker. I should also be able to extract bets out of bluffing hands on A- or K-high boards since he will feel like he should be able to represent AK, and I shouldn't have that since I just called preflop. Another reason to just call is that I'm 150 bbs deep with him. Even against a loose and aggressive player, I don't think it's profitable to get AK in for 150 bbs. vs. an UTG or UTG+1 raiser. Finally, two of the players left behind me with 100 bbs liked to squeeze. I'd be very happy to 4b over the top of their squeeze if UTG+1 didn't, so I was hoping to induce a 3-b/fold from one of them. Unfortunately that didn't happen, and instead we took a frop 4-handed, which is OK too.)

Flop: ($15.00) 5c Kh Jd (4 players)

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $10, Hero calls $10, BTN folds, SB calls $10 (This is the decision I might change looking back. I could put in a raise right here, but it's such a dry board that it's tempting to call and play pot control. The only draw to really worry about is QT, which the BTN or SB could have...UTG+1, even being LAG, probably doesn't have QTo in his range, but perhaps QTs. However I am giving hands like JT a chance to draw to a 5-outter pretty cheap, and I'm not sure I can get much more value out of a worse one-pair later. But one other advantage of the call is that it allows me to get away cheaper if there's a raise from one of the other two players, which I think would almost always be a hand better than AK. In general - this applies to the preflop call too - when I'm in position, I'm more willing to let hands go longer and delay aggression to later streets when I have more information, rather than try to end a hand early with a bet or raise, which I'm more likely to do out of position. Information accumulates over the course of a hand, usually more to the benefit of the in-position player. But in this case, with one of the players remaining to act having position on me, I think a raise to $27-30 might have been the best play. Still close, though, IMO.)

Turn: ($45.00) 7h (3 players)

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $26, Hero raises to $52, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $26 (This is definitely a weird-ish play from me, not something I would do very often. But I think in the limited number of times that I'd take this line, I'd have JJ or 55 very often, and occasionally even KK. JJ and 55 I'd almost certainly play the same way preflop, KK maybe I'd call 1/4 of the time and re-raise 3/4 of the time. On the flop, I'd slowplay a set pretty often too, for the same reasons mentioned above, with the frop being a very dry one, really with only a broadway draw to worry about. I do it here with AK so as not to let the SB get a look at another cheap card, and potentially to get some value out of KQ/AJ/QQ, although I think often he'd check these on the turn, or draws, with a heart draw now having appeared.)

River: ($149.00) 9c (2 players)

UTG+1 checks, Hero ??? (QT has now gotten there, and there's the outside chance that I have something like QhTh and was monkeying around on the turn, but I don't think either of us is really too worried about the straight. At this point, with his call on the turn, I was pretty sure he had one pair, perhaps with a heart draw that missed. For some of these hands...QQ,AJ,KQ,KhTh, etc...whether I bet or check behind on the river, I'm going to win what's in the pot and nothing else, as I don't think he'll call a shove with those hands very often. The only hands left that will win some share of the pot if I check behind are AK and AA. There are 6 combinations of AK and 3 combinations of AA possible. So really the question for me was if I get called by these hands. There's $149 in the pot and $85 left in my stack. Focusing attention just to the cases where he has AA or AK - again, if he has something weaker I don't think it matters much what I do, and I don't think he's ever stronger, although some commenters suggested he could have JJ or KJ, I think those hands he shoves on the turn - if I check back, I win 1/2 the pot 2/3 of the time, for an EV of 149*(1/2)*(2/3) ~ $50. If I bet, letting f_1 be the chance that he'll fold AK, and f_2 be the chance he'll fold AA, then my EV is (2/3)(f_1*149 + (1-f_1)*(1/2)*149) + (1/3)*(f_2*149 - 85*(1-f_2)) ~ 50*f_1 + (235/3)*f_2 + 65/3. Set equal to 50, the EV of checking back, and you get 50*f_1 + (235/3)*f_2 = 85/3. So if he folds AK 100% of the time and never folds AA, the shove is still very profitable. If he never folds AA, he has to fold AK more than 85/150 = 17/30 for me to show a profit. I thought that was the case, since I could very credibly represent the JJ and 55, as well as perhaps a Jh9h or occasional QhTh thrown in, so I shoved it in. He went into the tank and used quite a bit of his time bank, so I thought for sure we had the same hand and I was freerolling for half the pot...until he finally called with AA! Definitely a bummer to valuetown myself like that, but being that this was the absolute top of his range and he tanked so long before making the call, I still like my play on the river here.)

-BRUECHIPS