Brackchips and I were discussing what were the odds of Ivey taking down the Main Event this year. Obviously it would be completely sick if he could take it down, as it would just provide more evidence to shove in the face of morons in Congress and elsewhere who insist that poker is a game of chance rather than skill. As if the fact that this is Ivey's FOURTH top-25 Main Event finish since 2002 isn't enough.
So I will definitely be rooting for Phil, a fantastic and entertaining player as well as a pretty cool guy, as far as I know at least. I don't think the odds are that good though. Three reasons:
1) Ivey is a great player, but this is NOT a soft final table. Certainly you'd think Ivey is the best player there, but there are five pros at the table BESIDES Ivey. The other three players are all business/finance types, which means they're probably 1) pretty decent with math and strategic thinking, and 2) not scared money.
2) The delay before the final table almost certainly hurts Ivey. First of all, the other players, particularly the non-pros, will have time to work on their games and learn as much as they can. Ivey plays poker full-time and is more experienced than the other players anyway, so he's less likely to be able to improve much over the next three months. Also, there's more information out there for other players to study about Ivey's game in particular than there is information about how these other pros play that Ivey can look at.
3) Ivey's stack is short. At around 10 million, he'll be sitting around 30 bbs, and with half of the average stack. If all players at the final table were of equal skill, you'd expect an average stack to have a 1/9 shot of winning it all. A 1/2 average stack would also have a 50% chance of doubling, so not accounting for Ivey's skill advantage, he should have about a 1/18 chance of winning. No matter how much better Ivey is than the rest of the table, with 30 bbs, if he gets top pair at some point and it's not the best hand, it'll be hard for him to avoid going broke.
Putting all these things together, I'd give Ivey about a 1 in 9 chance of winning the thing. I have put my money where my mouth is as well, giving my buddy Zach 7:1 odds when he wanted to bet on Ivey. But I'd still be happy to pay out the money, as Ivey is very marketable and I think him winning would be "good for business".
-BRUECHIPS
3 comments:
I'd give Ivey better odds...more like 7:1. I mean, he's Phil Ivey.
I think his patience will be rewarded if he can stay alive for several hours and pick his spots carefully. I really hope he isn't one of the first 2 or 3 eliminated.
I just hope there's some skill involved in determining a winner, rather than Darvin Moon flopping quads against top full every hand.
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