I played this hand over the weekend...I am almost sure that I decided on the right play, but I kinda want to hear from the peanut gallery. Villain 30/20 over 100 or so hands, but seems to be fairly competent...WWYD? I'll save all of my thoughts on the hand until after others have made their comments...
Hero (MP2): $150.30
CO: $101.30
BTN: $100.00
SB: $159.50
BB: $93.15
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $202.60
UTG+2: $95.55
MP1: $57.40
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ks Ah
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, 1 fold
Flop: ($15.00) 5c Kh Jd (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $10, Hero calls $10, BTN folds, SB calls $10
Turn: ($45.00) 7h (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $26, Hero raises to $52, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $26
River: ($149.00) 9c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ???
-BRUECHIPS
7 comments:
Think UTG+1 have hand KQ or AK like you. It doesnt make any sense for him to check river with KKs or JJs with the pot this big. Since he raised pre-flop and bet into flop its unlikely he would have a 68 that would complete the straight. The only hand that have you beat could be two pairs and 55s, but I feel with you call on pre-flop and call on the flop, he has to put a set in your range. So a river bet here may force him to fold any two pair except for top two pair. Also I feel his call range would be wide given u picked a completely random card to raise. Probably called on the turn to prevent u from stealing, I would not be surprised if he called your river bet with AJ or QQs in the hole.
You called in position preflop, called a dry flop, and minraised turn. AKo is probably the weakest hand he puts you on. Sure, you can be making a play with a draw or air, but if that's his read, he's checking the river to you anyway hoping you monkey your stack off to him. Same line if he has a monster, he checks the river to snap/call your bet.
If you really think he will call a thin value bet, go ahead and shove your last $80 into the pot. I have a hard time seeing him trying to bluff-catch you, calling with a hand like KQ/QQ/JJ, though.
Against a smart opponent, I think it's a reluctant check-behind. I don't think you get him off of AK and I doubt he folds any wacky two pair hands he gets to the river with.
Then again, I'm a lousy cash game player, so this could be way LOL.
I think you can value bet the river. His SD missed. If he has you crushed you could argue he played it very deceptively. Your both pretty deep so if villain has a monster he really wants to get his stack in the middle at some point. Not sure why you made the min-raise on the turn but makes me think you are representing a monster and implying you want a call/4-bet. If villain has a strong hand I expect he would go with it on the turn. On the river it's his last chance to milk you so I don't think he checks a set. Villains range is super wide unless he opens a 'normal' % from this position but I would't be surprised if villain had TT or AK, AQ or AJ. I don't think he has even TP.
looking forward to reading the result.
I have no clue what he has (although A-K makes sense). In real life, I would prob check -- but I'm a huge nit and a terrible ca$h game player.
Let's see. If he bet his last $80 on the river, would I call? Prob yes, so that means I should bet. (If he has A-K I might get him to fold.) Nah, I check.
1st time commenting...love the blog. agree that you're rarely getting called by worse wo history/image. your c/c/min r line looks very strong, and your hand is pretty well-defined/slightly over-repped. river completes QT, but based on action, it's unlikely. villain's turn call looks pretty strong, given that your range is {AK+, not AA, KK}. AA, JJ, or a turned combo draw seem pretty likely (KJ and low sets most likely 3b/shove turn, though sets can def call here and let you pwn yourself on river, which appears to be optimal strat). keep in mind that pwning yourself on the river = major sklansky bucks withdrawal, and chking behind a loser is actually a big win.
with much respect, i think you misplayed every street. def a pf raise (isolate, steal pos, etc.). think a flop raise is better than turn unless UTG1 will often fire 2 barrels multiway with air on a pretty dry board (in which case he's more spewy than competent). however when you call flop, i think turn is also a call, since theres not much value out there. i expect this vill to bet worse more often than he will call w it.
Thanks for the comments, guys, keep 'em coming! I will post my thoughts and results tomorrow morning.
-bruechips
Even though villain is 30/20, given he is utg+1, I doubt 8-10 is in his range but A-K, A-Q, A-J, K-Q, K-J, K-T, Q-Q, Q-J, Q-T, J-J thru 5-5are.
If he had a set I think he re-raises the turn so we eliminate
5-5, 7-7, J-J, and probably K-J for the same reason.
Now, the only hands left we fear are Q-T or 9-9. I would expect him to bet either of those two hands for value since he is oop. He checked so he is really tricky and going for a CR or we have him.
However, given that we either have him and he can't call any bet or he has us and anything more we put in we lose. Therefore, we check behind and either win our pot or lose the minimum to his suckout on the river.
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