April 7, 2008

Should you always go nuts with the nuts? - Part 1

Below is an example of a hand where I flopped nuts and went broke. I'm not here to whine about the bad beat (its really not much of a beat) - but more to review the hand and see if I could have played the hand more optimally.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $503
SB: $410.50
BB: $583.10
UTG: $1,008.50
UTG+1: $112
UTG+2: $678.10
MP1: $81.50
MP2: $472.70
CO: $392.70

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $4, 3 folds, Hero raises to $18, SB folds, BB calls $14, UTG+2 calls $14

Flop: ($56) (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $24, Hero calls $24, BB raises to $72, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $184, BB raises to $565.10 and is All-In, Hero calls $301 and is All-In

Turn: ($1,050) [ ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($1,050) [ ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $1,050 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed (a straight, Five high) and LOST (-$503 NET)
BB showed (a full house, Threes full of Aces) and WON $1,047 (+$544 NET)


When the BB check raises the flop - I know his range is EXACTLY a set of deuces or 3's. Not 45, not AA, and its very unlikely to be air (especially out of position). I have played a number of hands with the villain and he plays somewhat of a robotic TAG style.

Knowing this, I know that I the villain has my range on either air, or an Ax type hand. He will NEVER folding on that flop (correctly so) and will be trying to get the money in on just about ANY turn card.

The thing that is bugging me is whether or not I should have flat called the CR from the SB or put in another raise. My edge over his hand is 65%/35% - a significant edge, but not a prohibitive favorite by any means. If our stacks are shallow, its a no brainer shove...but since we are a tad deeper (120bb's) and there is not much money in the middle after the CR, there may be an argument for flat calling and evaluating the turn.

Later this week I will try to breakdown the math/assumptions to determine the EV of shipping the frop vs. waiting to ship when a safe turn card comes.

-BRACKCHIPS

1 comment:

Fuel55 said...

You should know that flopped str8s never win.