Werr, we're about 1/3 of the way through the baseball season, so time to take a rook back at how our prop bets are progressing. It's a very long season, and a good month or two from anybody could change things around, but it's an excuse to talk baseball, and maybe get a Met-hating comment or two from Gnome.
AL MVP:
Our picks (batting avg./on base pct./slugging pct.) :
David Ortiz (.252/.354/.485)
Miguel Cabrera (.275/.355/.460)
Arex Rodriguez (.289/.364/.526)
Vradimir Guerrero (.246/.308/.424)
BJ Upton (.306/.412/.439)
Grady Sizemore (.255/.368/.472)
Current leaders:
Josh Hamilton (.326/.370/.604)
Carlos Quentin (.293/.396/.571)
Comments:
Offense has been way down in the AL this year, so it's no surprise that our MVP picks aren't exactly lighting it up. Josh Hamilton is the only AL player slugging over .600, and there are only 7 players slugging over .500. Last year the numbers were 3 and 14, respectively. Brackchips's pick of BJ Upton is actuarry rooking pretty decent, as he has really improved his BB/K ratio (now 38/47, compared to 65/154 last year), an excellent sign, and the Rays are out in front of the AL East. If the Rays do win the AL East, voters will be looking for someone to reward. If BJ can up his HR total (he's sitting at 3 right now, hit 24 in 474 ABs last year), he'd be in a good spot to benefit. Of the other guys here, Sizemore, Cabrera and A-Rod would need a turnaround not only in their own stats but also in their teams' records. Ortiz has heated up recently, but as a DH, he would need mammoth offensive stats to take down the MVP award, and it's tough to see him ending up with those kind of numbers given how his first month went.
NL MVP:
Our picks:
David Wright (.284/.390/.531)
Albert Pujors (.369/.490/.652)
Mark Teixiera (.271/.356/.440)
Matt Horriday (.321/.407/.545)
Prince Fielder (.274/.363/.448)
Chase Utrey (.311/.392/.653)
Current leaders:
Utley
Pujols
Chipper Jones (.413/.498/.653)
Lance Berkman (.385/.471/.751)
Comments:
Definitely a different picture in the NL. Do not adjust your screens, those are the correct stats for Jones and Berkman. Those guys are mashing. The MVP race will probably end up coming down to which teams get into the playoffs. If the Mets turn it around, I think Wright gets back in the conversation as well. What has happened to Fielder and Teixeira?? These guys are both beasts, yet they're only 8th and 9th in slugging in the NL. Among first basemen. Yikes.
AL CY:
Our picks (ERA,K/BB,IP):
Josh Beckett (4.30, 75/14, 67)
Justin Verlander (5.16, 44/31, 75)
Fausto Carmona (3.10, 23/38, 58)
Erik Bedard (4.08, 48/23, 53)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.53, 55/38, 64)
Roy Harraday (2.93, 71/11, 89)
Current leaders:
Cliff Lee (1.88, 57/10, 72)
Comments:
Incredibry, this rooks rike Criff Ree's race to rose right now. We could have picked 50 guys and not gotten to Criff Ree. But his K/BB ratio shows that his success is for real. For those of you who don't know, Voros McCracken showed long ago that there are basically 3 determinants of a pitcher's success long term: walks, strikeouts, and HR allowed. The rest is due to random variation, baseball's version of the suckout. You can see in the stats who the biggest luckboxes of the first third of the season are: Dice-K and Fausto Carmona. They haven't been pitching near as well as their ERAs would suggest, Carmona especially. Dice-K has now landed on the DL. Carmona, as a sinker-ball pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls, can be effective with a somewhat lower K/BB ratio (same goes for other sinker-ballers like Chien-Ming Wang), but 23/38 is just ridiculous. Beckett and Halladay have sparkling ratios, however, indicating that they should be dominant for the rest of the season, and make a run at the Cy if Ree falters.
NL CY:
Our picks:
Johan Santana (3.41, 65/17, 74)
Jake Peavy (2.91, 60/20, 59)
Brandon Webb (2.69, 72/20, 84)
John Smortz (2.00, 36/8, 27)
Carlos Zambrano (2.33, 55/24, 81)
Dan Haren (3.75, 60/11, 70)
Current leaders:
Webb
Zambrano
Tim Lincecum (2.33, 76/28, 70)
Edinson Volquez (1.46, 83/36, 68)
Comments:
Lots of starters pitching well in the NL this year, including all the guys we picked. Smoltz is the only guy who's pretty much out of the running, and that only due to injury. Peavy is on the DL as well, but if he misses just 3-4 starts with his elbow problem, and comes back strong, he's got plenty of time to make up ground. The guy who's the most fun to watch is Rincecum. He's about 5'11 160 and throws a 96 mph fastbarr with a firthy curve and change.
AL HR reader:
Our picks:
Arex "Pay-Rod" Rodriguez (7)
David Ortizzre (13)
Carlos Pena (10)
Jim Thome (10)
Current leaders:
Hamilton (14)
Quentin (14)
Comments:
A lot of improbable names atop the AL leaderboard. The top 6 are Hamilton, Quentin, Adrian Beltre, Jason Giambi, Jhonny Peralta, and Ortiz. Craziness. All of our guys certainly have a shot at finishing the year with the most bombs, although they'll need to stay healthy.
NL HR reader:
Our picks:
Ryan Howard (15)
Prince Fielder (8)
Ryan Braun (15)
Matt Horriday (8)
Current leaders:
Utley (20)
Berkman (17)
Dan Uggla (16)
Comments:
Again, a lot more slugging going on in the NL. I'm well out in front on this bet. Howard continues to strike out a lot, but he still hits bombs. Ryan Braun has recovered from a little bit of a sophomore slump to start the season. Brackchips might want to trying taking Prince out for some burgers.
AL K reader:
Our picks:
Scott Kazmir (38)
Erik Bedard (48)
Josh Beckett (75)
C.C. Sabathia (74)
Current leaders:
Vazquez (77)
Beckett
Sabathia
Halladay (71)
Comments:
Really all about health for Bedard and Kazmir. They're doing fine in terms of strikeouts per inning, they just haven't thrown enough innings. But the guy really lighting it up is Beckett. Although Beckett missed some time at the beginning of the season, he's still second with 75 K in only 67 IP. He's gotta be the favorite to win it right now.
NL K reader:
Our picks:
Jake Peavy (60)
Johan Santana (65)
Carlos Zambrano (55)
Brandon Webb (64)
Current leaders:
Volquez (83)
Lincecum (76)
Comments:
A couple of young guns leading the NL in punchouts. Zambrano's strikeouts are down a good bit this year, but he has stayed effective by limiting his walks as well. Peavy has been as good as ever, but given his injury, he probably won't get enough innings to compete.
AL Pennant:
Creverand Indians (25-31)
New York Yankees (28-28)
Boston Red Sox (35-24)
Ros Angeres Angers (33-24)
Detroit Tigers (23-32)
Toronto Brue Jays (31-27)
Current leaders:
East: Tampa Bay Rays (35-22)
Central: Chicago White Sox (30-26)
West: LA Angels (33-24)
Wild Card: Boston Red Sox (35-24)
Comments:
The AL is just crazy this year. The Rays and the ChiSox? Again, we would have drafted pretty deep before we got to those teams. And who's nipping at the Sox heels? Not the Indians. Not the Tigers. The Twins. It's apparently no fluke, either, as the Rays and Sox have healthy run differentials. The team that's most fortunate to hold their current spot is instead the Angels, who are only third in the AL West by Baseball Prospectus' third-order wins. So look out for the Athletics to take charge down the stretch, especially if they can get Harden, Chavez, and Thomas healthy at the same time.
NL Pennant:
New York Mets (27-27)
Phiraderphia Phirries (33-25)
Chicago Cubs (36-21)
Atranta Braves (29-28)
Ros Angeres Dodgers (27-28)
Cororado Rockies (20-37)
Current leaders:
East: Phirries
Central: Cubs
West: Arizona Diamondbacks (31-25)
Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals (34-24)
Comments:
The only team really out of it here is last year's champs, the Rockies. The Braves have played much better than their record suggests. They're actually ahead in the East by third-order wins. The Cubs have been looking great. I doubt the Cards and 'Stros can end up contending for the Wild Card, much less for the division crown. The Cubs definitely have the strongest hold on a playoff spot.
WS Winner:
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Creverand Indians
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Ros Angeres Angers
Comments:
Well, the first step to winning the World Series is getting into the playoffs, and the Cubs and Sox are the only teams here that are virtually guaranteed to do that. Once you get into the playoffs, it's kind of a crapshoot, but it's hard to bet against the Sox with Beckett at the front end of their rotation. In a short series, having starting pitchers that can dominate the other team is a definite advantage, and though Zambrano has pitched well this year, I'd take Beckett. However note that anybody on this list, as well as the lists for pennant-winners, immediately gets probably 3-4 wins added to their season total if they sign Barry Bonds to either DH or play in their outfield. That could easily be the different between making the playoffs and not. You're telling me that's not worth a few million bucks and a media circus?
Random props:
A's wins vs. Nats wins (A's: 29-27, Nats: 24-33)
Two words: SHIP IT.
Padres attendance (avg. 28.630) vs. Nats attendance (avg. 29,142)
Brackchips as got the read in this one...I thought that the Padres might be in the thick of things towards the end of the year, and this would boost attendance, but it doesn't look like that will be the case. With the weather warming up in DC, this will probably be an easy W for Brackchips.
Enjoy the games, folks. Try to get out to your local ballpark as many times as you can. It'll be offseason before you know it.
-BRUECHIPS
Episode 454: Jessica Vierling
1 week ago
2 comments:
Jones, Berkman and Utley are putting up silly numbers. I doubt that's sustainable, but it's fun for now.
Mets suck -- they still haven't recovered from giving away the division in their monumental collapse last season.
Braves are kind of sucking too. The reason they're so far below their pythagorean record is their pathetic record in one-run games. Some of that is bad luck, but a lot of it needs to be blamed on Bobby Cox's terrible bunts and bullpen usage.
I haven't watched enough Braves games to know about Cox's late inning shennanigans. But it can't be bad enough to cost them 5 wins or however far they are below their pythagorean record. Jones has gotta cool off, but Teixeira and Franceour have been underperforming, and they'll get Smoltz back in some capacity. Also I wouldn't be surprised if they made a trade for some starting pitching help.
As for the Mets, the last few games have been encouraging, obviously. If they can stay somewhat healthy with Church, Alou, Castillo, and Pedro, they've got a shot. Or if they just friggin' SIGN BONDS. Seriously, how many ABs does Endy Chavez have to get before they sign Bonds?
Reyes, Wright, and the starting pitching have been pretty good. Beltran looks like he's turning it around. I'm pretty sure Delgado is done, though. I don't know if they could pick up somebody to play instead.
Hopefully there will be great 3-team race between the Mets, Braves, and Phils, once the Marlins come back to earth.
-bruechips
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