June 26, 2008

Speak of the Devil (Sets Don't Always Win)

Today for like the 11th time in the last two days, I made a monster pre-flop raise, somebody called with a pocket pair, and hit a set to bust my AA. I can't claim I played the river very well on this one. At the time I thought I could get value out of KQ or maybe a very weirdly-played AK. When the guy limp-calls, and there's two tens on board, 88 is really the only hand he could have that beats me. Maybe JTs. I checked the turn with the intention of calling a shove in case he was just trying to float me on the flop, putting me on a pure steal vs. a lot of limpers:

Seat 1: HERO (SB) ($217.10)
Seat 3: UTG ($200)
Seat 4: UTG+1 ($200)
Seat 6: MP1 ($162.70)
Seat 7: MP2 ($200)
Seat 8: CO ($262.20)
MP2 posts $2
UTG posts $2 (donk alert!)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ad Ac]
UTG checks
UTG+1 calls $2
MP1 calls $2
MP2 checks
CO calls $2
HERO raises to $25 (Raise an amount that would seem to make set-mining an obviously unprofitable play)
BB folds
UTG folds
UTG+1 calls $23 (Either he doesn't realize that he doesn't have set-mining odds, thinks some of the other donks behind him will come along, or doesn't think I have a hand)
MP1 folds
MP2 folds
CO folds

*** FLOP *** [8h Tc Kd] 
HERO bets $44 (Standard)
UTG+1 calls $44 (Not loving it, but hoping he is trying to float and then bluff me off AQ or QQ on the turn)

*** TURN *** [8h Tc Kd] [Th] 
HERO checks (Let him try to execute his plan to bluff the turn)
UTG+1 checks (I'm hoping this means he has KQ/JJ/QJ)

*** RIVER *** [8h Tc Kd Th] [Qd] 
HERO bets $131 (Try to get value from above hands)
UTG+1 calls $131, and is all in

*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO shows [Ad Ac] two pair, Aces and Tens
UTG+1 shows
[8c 8s] a full house, Eights full of Tens

Doh!!! Oh well...this guy paid $25 for a chance to see the flop and hit his hand...I don't feel that bad paying him off when it's the only set he could have had, and I gave him terrible odds to draw pre-flop. I dunno, do you guys check-fold this river? Comments welcome.

Anyway, here's the hand that justifies the title of this post, and it was pretty effing sweet:

Seat 3: BB ($245) (weak-tight set-miner)
Seat 4: UTG ($62) (donk)
Seat 9: HERO (CO) ($452.10)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ah As]
UTG calls $2
HERO raises to $10
BB calls $8
UTG calls $8

*** FLOP *** [6h Kd 8c]
BB checks
UTG checks
HERO bets $24 (I want to bet an amount so that BB will fold his un-connected pocket pairs. I will happily call the UTG donk's shove if he decides he wants to take KJ to the felt)
BB calls $24 (Smells like 88 or 66. Only POSSIBLE hand he could have that I beat is AK.)
UTG folds (This is fortunate. If UTG decides to shove, I'm in a tough spot. It would only be like $26 more to me, but it opens the action back up for UTG, and I'm behind his range.)

*** TURN *** [6h Kd 8c] [5s]
BB checks
HERO checks (No reason to bet here. If he has AK, he won't be calling three streets anyway.)

*** RIVER *** [6h Kd 8c 5s] [Ad] (BOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!)
BB checks
HERO bets $75 (I want to make a very large value bet here. I think actually an OBFV would have been the correct play, since I had to count on him doing something really dumb to get the rest of his stack:)
BB raises to $211, and is all in (Dude, are you kidding? You think I'm going to call this with AK? I probably wouldn't even bet the river with AK, since again, I'm only hoping for a split. Just shows you, these weak tight set-miners really have no idea how to play poker. They're just counting on their nittiness and the inability of payoff wizards (admittedly, like me sometimes) to fold. But they will never be able to succeed at higher levels. Maybe 5/10 is as high as they can ever go, and that only in the juiciest games.)
HERO calls $136
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BB shows
[6c 6s] three of a kind, Sixes
HERO shows [Ah As] three of a kind, Aces

Suck on it!!! Ahh...nit money tastes sooooo good....

-BRUECHIPS

1 comment:

Gnome said...

I like pushing/stacking off on the river in your first hand. You're ahead sometimes, and the times your not, you'll make money in the long run off your opponents' incorrect preflop set mining calls.