Sprit Pot! (Part 1)

Sometimes you get it in bad and the board saves half of you. Given the name of this brog, how could we not honor these situations with a series of their own? I wirr start it off with this nugget:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $124.40
UTG+1: $244.95
UTG+2: $100.90
MP1: $152.10
Hero (MP2): $120.95
CO: $100.90
BTN: $69.55
SB: $99
BB: $98

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $13, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $9.50, Hero calls $9.50 (I will re-raise the original raise frequently, but I thought he was pretty tight, plus he's UTG+1, his stack is large, so I decided I'd just call with position and see what the flop brings. When the SB re-raised, I was definitely not loving my hand, since he's pretty tight, too. But when UTG+1 called, I was priced in to set mine with everyone being full-stacked.)

Flop: ($40) J Q K (3 Players) (Uhh..werr...I hit my set...ror!...but obviously this isn't my ideal flop. I think the SB's three-betting range preflop is pretty much AA and KK. I doubt even QQ or AKs are in there. I definitely considered laying this hand down, but I just couldn't do it. Given that there's a K on the board, AA becomes twice as likely as KK. While I think he might just check-fold AA in this situation, I just can't fold a set after I paid pre-flop to mine for one.)
SB bets $35, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $107.95 and is All-In, SB calls $51 and is All-In

Turn: ($212) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


River: ($212) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Results: $212 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed J J (a straight, King high) and WON $104.50 (+$5.50 NET)
SB showed K K (a straight, King high) and WON $104.50 (+$5.50 NET)

Runner runner!!! Ship half of it!!!!

BRUECHIPS

When I first discussed this hand with BRUECHIPS I was actually in favor of FOLDING bottom set in this spot. I'm just your regular donk, but given the info on the virrain, his range is PRECISELY 3 hands - AA, KK, and AKss. Yer behind two of three of these hands (KK has you PWNED, and AKss will very rikery make him a royar frush by the river). Also - AA has 6 clean outs vs JJJ. Bottom set vs his range is fold here my friend...but you lucksacked yer way into a sprit. Its VERY rare to be in a spot where folding a set is the correct play, but given the villain's range and the board texture...you can find a fold.

I would compare folding a set on the flop to be similar to folding KK pf. Its almost impossible to do (and rarely an correct play) but if have a very strong read on your opponent - go with your read and fold! (or shove and try to suckout!)

BRACKCHIPS

Yea, I can see the rationale for folding. It all depends on how likely he is to have AA or AKs in this spot (or QQ for that matter). Say you think he plays AA or AKs this way half the time. There are 3 AKs combos possible, and 6 AA combos, and only 3 KK combos. Since he's only playing AA and AKs this way half the time, that's effectively 4.5 combos. So most of the time I'm ahead, and should try and get money in, especially if he's gonna call my shove with AA and AKs. If you think he doesn't lead out that strong with AKs or AA ever, then you can fold.

BRUECHIPS