High Stakes Poker Recap, S5Ep06

It looks like this week's episode will be the end of Tom Dwan's run of dominance, as next week we'll have new players. This makes me sad, as this was quite an interesting table.

Daniel Negreanu made an early exit from the show after going through yet another buy-in. I think he dropped $700k total? Which brings his total losses on High Stakes Poker to...some fantastically large number. I dare not even venture a guess.

In any case, there were a couple of pretty interesting hands in this show. My favorite one again involved durrrr. Eli Elezra limped QTs UTG (standard stuff for Eli...probably not a winning play at this table), Ziigimund raised him to $4500 with 77, getting calls from Eli and Tom Dwan in the small blind with 63s (for me personally this is a fold, but since Dwan is so unreal postflop and he knows Eli is going to call, he can make this call). The flop comes Ac5sTc, giving Eli the lead, and it checks around. This part is fairly standard. I think Ziig c-bets here sometimes, but he's certainly never getting either Dwan or Eli to fold a T or better. He will probably get raised by frush draws (and as we know, fading crubs is pretty tough), maybe even KQ or 34. The only hands he beats that he might get a fold from are 88 and 99. He could also get called by a T which he could then bluff out on the turn. But Eli and Dwan are probably the two least bluffable players at the table besides Ziig himself, so deciding against a multi-barrel bluff in an attempt to fold out second pair isn't a bad decision. The turn brings the Jh, which no player can really like and it checks around again. The river is the Ad, and Dwan starts tanking for a bit. The pot was around $21k. I remember thinking at this point, "If durrrr bets $15k, Eli will definitely call," hoping that he would realize that it's tough for him to represent anything but some very rare hands (maybe a set of fives or A5), and just check/fold his six-high. Then Dwan comes up with the absolutely genius plan: overbet the pot. In this spot, with Eli and Ziig having checked the frop and turn, it's very likely that they have something, but not much. As in, hands that where at least one of them will call $15k but none of them will want to call oh, say, $52k. Which is exactly what durrrr puts in, getting quick folds from both. This may look like a "riskier" play since Dwan is risking more to win the same amount, but the probability of getting folds goes up by so much that he trades a -EV play (risking $15k to win $21k probably 25% of the time or less) to a +EV play (risking $50k to win $21k probably north of 80% of the time). Absolute genius. Once again, durrrr takes down a three-way pot with the third-best hand, with a bet that no other player at the table would make.

In a much bigger but also much less interesting hand, durrrr got it all in on the flop with a monster draw vs. Barry's AA. Barry three-bet Eastgate's open (which he has done frequently) with AA and Dwan called in the small blind with KsQs (spades are gold!!). A loose call to be sure, but Dwan flops the world as it comes Q42 with two spades. Durrrr leads and they get it all in on the flop, with durrrr winning the coinflip as another Q comes on the turn. I think Barry would probably be better off just calling on the flop instead of raising, since if Dwan continues, he has either a set or a monster draw (Qsxs, As3s, As5s) where Barry is flipping at best. Maybe Dwan also plays AsJs or AsKs the same way, in which case Barry is farther ahead, but when you consider the set possibilities, I don't think Barry has more than 50% equity against Dwan's range for continuing. He also folds out hands that he might get more value from later on, like an AQ or KQ with no spades. If he waits until a blank turn to commit himself, Fade-N-Go style, he increases his equity significantly, although he will occasionally get bluffed.

The only interesting part of the hand was when durrrr refused to pull back $200k from the frip. This adds to Dwan's intimidation factor, I think. He's telling the rest of the table and anybody watching on TV, "don't get involved in a hand with me unless you're ready to risk your entire stack." After his performance on this series, I can't imagine anybody wants to get involved in hands with this guy. No wonder he has to give odds to get action.

The two biggest non-durrrr pots of the night both involved Peter Eastgate. In the first, he got valuetowned by David Benyamine. Eastgate opened the action with Js9s, gets called by Dwan with Ad3d in the small blind, then raised to $16k by Benyamine with 99 in the big bind. Both Eastgate and durrrr call, bringing the pot to $49k prefrop. The frop comes QQ9, giving Eastgate two pair and Benyamine a boat. The turn and river come 6h, 8c, and Benyamine gets three streets of value out of Eastgate, for a total of $141k. While it seems pretty donkish for Eastgate to be calling off nearly 150 bbs with second pair, I can definitely see the reasoning. There aren't that many Q's that are in Benyamine's three-betting range prefrop. Also, boats are unlikely since we've already seen Benyamine just call in similar spots preflop (like when he made quads with 44 vs. Negreanu's JJ), and since Eastgate has a 9 in his hand, there are only two nines left in the deck for Benyamine to have. If Benyamine were not value betting three streets with all the pocket pairs that beat Eastgate (JJ,TT,AA,KK), then Eastgate probably should be calling down, even with JT getting there on the river, since Benyamine is capable of firing three barrels as a bruff with A-high or KJs or something. Even if you put AQ, JTs and KQs in Benya's range, you've got 8+3+2+1=14 combos of hands that Eastgate is behind. Don't need Benyamine to be bluffing too often to make the call-down good. Again, this is IF Benyamine is not value-betting pocket pairs, which I'm not sure is the case.

Eastgate fared better in the other big pot he played, getting a straddle special when he turned a full house and got all of Eli's money when he rivered a straight. A good slowplay on the turn by Eastgate.

And that wraps it up for this table on HSP. My five favorite (as in, "I wish I were good enough to think of that and execute it") plays of the first 6 shows:

5. Durrrr cold 4-bets with 44 and takes it down with a c-bet on an AQx board vs. Eastgates' JJ
4. Durrrr flops a straight with KQ vs. Ziig's top pair no kicker, checks all three streets before raising the river to get some sick value.
3. Durrrr overbets the river with 6-high
2. Barry check-raises the turn with 6-high to take Elezra off top pair
1. What else could it be? Durrrr's QTs bluff of Barry's AA and Eastgate's trip deuces

Oh, and one final note: da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da (to the tune of Heels fight song) GO TAR HEELS!!!

-BRUECHIPS