Let's get right into the action...
Me folding the second nuts - lil strange huh? Let me get into my thoughts on the hand...
When I bet and get raised, and then min 3b - I'm really in a tough spot vs 2 players here. I don't have any reason to think either of this players are making a move on me. Both player's raise c bet percentage were incredibly low which led me to believe they were strong (while technically this was not a c bet, I treated it the same in my mind.) If this were a HU pot, I would simply be insta getting the money in (if get pwnd by an overset or a mega draw gets there, I would just chalk it up to a cooler.) I had a good idea of my equity vs a single player whose range is 88, 22, A5ss, 45ss. Both villain's were on the tight side and I really did not think that there were any two two pair combinations that fell into their preflop calling range.
I ended up simply allowing myself to time out - usually when faced with a tough decision with a hand as big as this, I will just tiltship. I also pondered a flatting the 3b and trying to fade a spade/quad up/boat up - but the B could easily 4b all in.
So obviously folding the second nuts on this frop is EXTREMELY nittish (something I'm definitely not known for) but I was so thrown off by the situation I had to go back and stove it.
Suprisingly I made a good fold given the ranges vs TWO players. Again - had this been a HU pot my moolah goes insta in the middle.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
326,239,452 games 0.375 secs 869,971,872 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.505% 26.09% 00.41% 85122024 1348562.00 { 3c3s }
Hand 1: 36.747% 35.39% 01.36% 115457253 4427180.00 { 88, 22, AsQs, AsJs, As5s, As4s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
Hand 2: 36.747% 35.39% 01.36% 115457253 4427180.00 { 88, 22, AsQs, AsJs, As5s, As4s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
-BRACKCHIPS
8 comments:
It seems like that range might be a little bit narrow for your opponents. You have a much closer decision against a slightly wider range:
Hand 0: 33.377% 33.38% 00.00% 34962 0.00 { 3c3s }
Hand 1: 33.311% 33.31% 00.00% 34893 0.00 { 88, 22, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s }
Hand 2: 33.311% 33.31% 00.00% 34893 0.00 { 88, 22, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s }
Correct - but since I am holding the 3s, we can exclude it from my opponents range. It removes pair+FD outs which is a decent chunk of equity.
Also, I think we could prolly tighten up the flop 3b'rs range, i think its safe to say he has a set more often than he has a draw.
-Brackchips
Good point. But still, if we remove those 3s, we still get this:
Hand 0: 33.377% 33.38% 00.00% 34962 0.00 { 3c3s }
Hand 1: 33.311% 33.31% 00.00% 34893 0.00 { 88, 22, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, As4s, As2s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
Hand 2: 33.311% 33.31% 00.00% 34893 0.00 { 88, 22, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, As4s, As2s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
Or you could assume that because you hold the 3 of spades, it's gold.
Yikes, tuff hand. If you like variance, 4-bet push that flop when it gets back to you. If you don't like variance, a fold is ok I guess.
If you do 4-bet push, and if the Button is a solid player, I would think the only hand he could call with would be 88. I mean, with 54ss, he has to think that a higher flush draw is definitely possible, which takes away a ton of his outs.
But adds fives and fours as dirty outs...I don't think anyone would fold 5s4s there given the amount of money in the pot. He might fold 22, since there's a pretty good chance he's up against an overset and if not he's up against a huge draw. Even though 22 is a favorite over 5s4s, 5s4s has significantly more equity than 22 against the monster hands on this board:
Board: 8s 3d 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.606% 28.61% 00.00% 8496 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 71.394% 71.39% 00.00% 21204 0.00 { 88, 33, As5s, As4s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
Board: 8s 3d 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.258% 40.26% 00.00% 3587 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 59.742% 59.74% 00.00% 5323 0.00 { 88, 33-22, As5s, As4s, 6s5s, 5s4s }
Gnome, I don't know if the 3-bettor on the frop would have As9s too much. If he's a tight player, he'll realize he has little fold equity, is likely up against some big hands, and fold his nut flush draw with no straight draw.
For me personally, I don't think I'd ever be folding this hand on the frop. There's enough money already in the pot that getting it in even if your equity is as low as 26% WHEN THE MONEY GOES IN 3-way and much more than that when it's 2-way isn't too far from wrong, and there's some low-probability spazz-out factor that adds to your equity somewhat. There's enough money behind that you can call on the frop and then get it in on a non-spade turn (or call a shove from the button).
-bruechips
Pokerfool - correct that a higher FD is possible...but if you are playing 45ss and fold to heat on this board, you simply should never play sc's period. Despite having no pair - you have fropped the "nuts" for 100bbss.
One other thing...if we substitute the 8 for a card that is higher than a 9, I would have been much more likely to put my money in on the flop bc the flop 3b'r had a very high 3b % from the blinds and thus his range would almost never include top set.
-Brackchips
Email this HH also please.
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