THIN! (Part 13) - Trying to Range-Balance in a 3b pot

First of all, big ups to Vizer and his buddies for pwning San Diego last night. It was fun to hang out with you guys; sorry I suck so hard at pool.

Anyway, with all the prop betting and HSP-recapping around here recently there hasn't been too much hand analysis, so here's one I played recently that was interesting because both of us were in pretty rare parts of our range:

CO: $106.10

BTN: $97.25

SB: $112.05

BB: $101.35

UTG: $49.25

UTG+1: $21.85

UTG+2: $53.15

MP1: $94.15

Hero (MP2): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Ts Th

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, BB raises to $7.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.25 (Fairly standard call in position 200 bbs deep. I only had 120ish hands or so on this guy, in which his VPIP/PFR stats were pretty nitty - 11/11 - but his 3b% was fairly high - 11 as well. I've posted about this a bit before, but in those situations, I give more credence to the VPIP/PFR, since the player faces those decisions in every hand, whereas he only faces the decision of 3b/not 3b in a small subset of hands. So the effective sample size is much larger for the VPIP/PFR stats. Therefore I put him on a fairly strong range when 3b'ing my raise of the EP limper, even though the limper was a donk and my range for raising him is fairly wide.)

Flop: ($15.75) 9s Jc 5c (2 players)

BB bets $9, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $9 (Usually I would fold right here. But I decided this would be a good time to balance my range and try to rep a big hand. Since he was the 3-bettor pre-flop, he's not supposed to have many of the draws on this board. This means that I could plausibly slow-play a set. It also means that I can represent draws if a club or a Q, 7, 8, or K comes (which also actually give me some straight outs). I could also be floating him with JsTs or the like, so if a J or T comes, those could plausibly help me as well (the T actually does, obviously). Basically, there are lots of cards that should help my range more than his on the turn, therefore putting me in a profitable bluffing situation. So depending on what comes in on the turn, I have a lot of options available to me.) 

Turn: ($33.75) 8s (2 players)

BB bets $33.75, Hero raises to $83.50 all in (This is one of the cards I was looking for, and I go ahead and follow my plan of shoving it all-in, hoping that he would fold AA-QQ, and call with AcKc or AcQc. Since I have a reasonable number of outs if called by the overpairs, he doesn't even have to fold that often for me to be making money here. If he folds half the time and I have 23% equity when called, my EV here is $19. If he folds only 1/4 of the time, my EV is -$5. Given that occasionally he'll have random bluffs or even weaker hands that still beat me but would be likely to fold such as KJs, I think I've got pretty significant fold equity.)

BB requests TIME, BB calls $49.75 (He timed down for a while before making this call, which I think means he believed my story somewhat, although it's hard to say given what he showed up with, he's really just figuring out equity vs. pot odds)

River: ($200.75) 3d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $200.75

BB shows Tc 9c (a pair of Nines)

Hero shows Ts Th (a pair of Tens)

Hero wins $197.75

THIN!! Somewhat accidentally....but that's the cool thing about this shove on the turn, is that often I will get calls from worse hands (I thought A-high flush draws, but in this case an even huger draw), and folds from better hands. Anyway I'm still not totally sure how much I like my play in this hand, but comments are welcome. I think in general I am a little bit too nitty when deep and don't put stacks light enough, so I've been trying to look for spots to go crazy recently, and this was one of them. Fortunately it worked out this time...but I'd be really interested to know if he or other villains would call with AA-QQ.

-BRUECHIPS