High Stakes Poker Recap, S5Ep05

Episode 5 has arrived.

At some point you gotta start feeling bad for Daniel Negreanu. He's down what, 600k now? He's definitely not playing his best poker. I'm sure he knows he should probably quit, but maybe doesn't want to since it's for TV and all. While I thought his play with JJ was potentially defensible, I don't see any way his play with Tc9c could be good. He opens preflop and Eli squeeze from the blinds with AA. The frop comes Qc2c4h and Eli bets ~$17k into a pot of ~$35k. Stacks are about $250k, so Daniel is getting very good odds to just call this bet. I don't completely hate his raise, as Eli might be convinced to lay down AK or AJ, but it's not a great spot for a raise since there's not much Daniel can represent as a monster hand. It's really only 42s, 22, or 44. Furthermore, Daniel has shown a tendency to slowplay his big hands on dry boards, as in the J2s hand vs. Eastgate. What else would he be raising for value here besides those rare hands? KQ/AQ? JJ? Seems a little thin. If his intent was to take Eli off a Q or better, he's certainly drawing dead on that. In any case, Eli certainly isn't going to be laying down aces and raises to $119k. It should be clear to Daniel that he has no fold equity. Maybe he thinks he can get Eli off A3 or 77? I don't know...maybe in some fantasy land Eli does play those hands like this and folds to a shove. But he's going to be getting very good odds to call Daniel's shove (the shove is for 100k more, he's getting 3.8:1). Eli folding anything, especially given the odds that Daniel is on a flush draw, is pretty unlikely. So Daniel basically put in $180k more knowing he's at best 35% to win the hand. I just don't see the point. 

The other big hand of note also involved Eli. Barry Greenstein raises 6d5d in early position and gets called by Eli on the button with A2o (a very loose call IMHO), Ziigimund with JhTh, and Eastgate with 32s. The frop comes AdKcJd, giving Barry a flush draw and Eli top pair no kicker. Barry c-bets $7k into $16k, and Eli raises to $19k. Here's another raise I don't really see the point of. It so happens that Barry does have a flush draw and Eli has the best hand, but why does he want to build the pot with such a weak hand on this board? The range of hands that Barry is continuing with PWNS A2o. And even when Eli does have the best hand, he will often get pwnd later because Barry's range is so much stronger than his, and therefore Barry can bluff effectively. There's really one hand that Eli can represent that he'd be willing to put in his stack with: QT. MAYBE KdQd or KdTd. Barry could have these hands as well, plus he could have AA, KK, JJ, and AK. 

I might like Eli's bet if he were using it as a form of pot control. Basically, make a small raise now, check back the turn, and hope to get a cheap showdown on the river. But even so I don't think his hand has enough showdown value to do that, combined with the fact that there are many turns and rivers he will not want to see. In any case Eli does not take that line as he makes a near pot-sized bet of $45k on an 8c turn. Barry thinks for a bit and makes a VERY nice raise to $200k. As I said, this really forces Eli to fold everything but QT. It seems like Eli gets attached to these one-pair-no-kicker hands and loses a lot on them quite often. The only problem with Barry's raise is that he's forced to fold if Eli shoves. I think stacks are around $500k, and he can't really call getting 3:1 on a 6-high flush draw with one card to come.  Putting in $200k and then folding would be pretty gross, but he might need to raise that much, seemingly committing himself to the hand, in order to convince Eli to fold. Eli might read a smaller raise to $160k or so as weak since it does leave Barry room to fold a hand as good as AK or AJ. 

-BRUECHIPS