Not quite as many exciting hands in this episode (full vid here), but still a good amount of action to sort through. Daniel Negreanu rebought and laid low for the most part, Tom Dwan tried to get some value by slowplaying a few hands, while Ziigimund showed some aggression, although he didn't follow through enough on later streets.
The biggest pot of the night was played between Barry Greenstein and Tom Dwan, with Peter Eastgate playing and instrumental role once again. Eastgate opened with Q8o, and Barry made a light re-raise to 12k from the button with Jh9h. Durrrr woke up with AA in the SB and raised it another 20k. Eastgate instafolded, bringing the action back to Barry.
With effective stacks at around 275k, it is quite tempting for Barry to take a flop in position for another 20k. Also, Barry had just gotten bruffed in the now-famous QT vs. 42. vs. AA hand. Finally, Barry surely realizes that durrrr knows that Peter Eastgate doesn't want to get into a huge pot without the nuts, which makes three-betting him in position a really profitable play. Durrrr is aaaabsolutely capable of having any two cards in this situation....and for that reason, he's going to get action when he has a monster hand.
Barry does indeed call and the frop comes JdTc3h, giving Barry top pair. Durrrr bets 48kish into the pot of 60k, putting Barry in a tough spot. He still has almost 250k in his stack, but he's got only top pair with no kicker. I'm not really sure what durrrr's c-betting range is here. It's certainly overpairs and sets. With KJ or AT, I'm not sure what he would do. We have seen him check weakish one-pair hands for pot control in these kinds of situations before. I think he'd probably c-bet AQ,AK, and KQ as well. Let's say it's AA-TT, JT, 99, 88, AK, AQ, KQ. In that case, Barry has 51% equity vs. that range (the runner-runner straight and flush draws do help...if he had J7o his range would drop to 48%) . The problem is that durrrr is going to fold those 99/88/AQ+ hands to a raise. His range for stacking off is probably AA-TT, JT and KQ (and I'm not even sure about KQ), against which Barry has 32.5% equity.
For Barry's play to be good, durrrr has to be bet/folding better hands, or at least hands with significant equity, a pretty good percentage of the time. Those hands might include AT+,KJ+, QJ, and 89. That's really not too many hands, to me, given the amount Barry is risking and how often he will get it in as a 2:1 dog vs. durrrr's range. And, of course, we don't know that durrrr would fold QJ even.
One other option for Barry would be to just call this bet. It's kinda gross because there aren't too many cards he wants to see on the turn, and his equity vs the parts of Dwan's range he's behind goes way down if he doesn't improve. But when durrrr is out of position it minimizes his ability to make big bluffs on later streets, so Barry could get to showdown cheaper, and maybe even profitably bet the turn if checked to and fold out hands that could river him with an overcard or inside straight draw.
Given that he called preflop, I don't think Barry can really just fold once he flops top pair. He called thinking that durrrr was making a move, and that shouldn't change much once durrrr c-bets this flop. I think Barry just decided he didn't want to get himself in a tough spot on the turn, and would rather take his chances on the flop, force durrrr to give up his bluffs immediately, and hope to suck out if he had to stick it in. So Barry commits himself with a raise to 150k, durrrr shoves it in without too much deliberation, and of course Barry calls off given how little he has left. So THAT's how you get in over 200bbs on a J-high frop with top pair no kicker! A 9 does bink off on the turn, so Barry does get shipped the pot, despite being soul-owned by Tom Dwan once again.
(EDIT: I forgot to include this in the original post, but don't forget to go here if you want to take part in Barry's "Math is Idiotic" fund raiser!)
Durrrr then got to show down a set that he slowplayed on an extremely draw-heavy flop (99 on QT9 all spades), roping two bets out of Eli Elezra, who had AsJc but bricked the turn and river. I think he might have been using the image from showing down that hand later when he got involved with T8o. Durrrr raises preflop with Tc8c and gets calls from David Benyamine with Qd8d and Doyle from the blinds with Jh9h (the hand of the night for beating Dwan). The frop comes an action-packed Qh8c6h. It checks around to Benyamine, who bets 7800 into the 13k pot. Doyle calls with his straight and flush draws. I kind of expected durrrr to fold here, given that if he hits two pair it completes two straights, as well as a potential better two pair for QT, but I think he gets convinced by the price and his runner-runner straight and heart draws (neither to the nuts or close to it).
The turn is the 9s, which gives Doyle a pair to go with his draws, and gives Dwan a double-belly-buster (either a J or a 7 makes him a straight, and it turns out they would both make him the best hand). Doyle makes a pot-sized bet of 35k. I think he does a pretty convincing job of repping JT or 75, or perhaps Q9/98. If he had those hands, he would want to protect them, and in a three-way pot, you'd think at least one player could give him some action with a QJ/QT type hand, heart draw, T8o (ROR!).
I think durrrr does put Doyle on a pretty big hand, and that's why he decides to call, thinking he can get a big value bet on the river with a straight, or maybe bluff a heart. Benyamine calls as well since he has two pair, and I think that foils durrrr's plans to bluff the river once the heart does come and Doyle checks. There's too big a chance that Benyamine was drawing to hearts on the turn and hit the river himself. As a result it checks all the way around, and Doyle takes down the pot with a J-high frush.
The other hand that interested me was Ziigimund bluff-raising the turn on a KdQd7h3h board. In particular, I was shocked that Ziig didn't put in 80k or so when checked to on the diamond turn. I guess he had Elezra read correctly for a draw on the turn and didn't want to bet once one of the draws came in? Elezra does get pretty sticky with weak one-pair hands sometimes...I could see him calling down there with KJo...but Ziig just giving up on the river with T-high...a little weak. If it were durrrr, who is more capable of going for a check-raise there with the nuts, and also capable of check/raise bluffing with a missed draw, then maybe. But as I recall Elezra's game, I think he'd bet for value there if he rivered the diamond flush. It seems like Ziig often does take one shot at pots and then give up. That saved him money in past episodes, raising only the flop and then checking the turn and river vs. durrrr's bottom set, and checking back third pair vs Barry's JJ, but cost him some pots this time, both in this hand vs. Eli, and not firing a c-bet vs. Eastgate when Eastgate was holding the second nut low.
All in all, another highly entertaining episode of HSP. From the looks of the Episode 5 preview, we'll see more of durrrr pwning the table next week.
-BRUECHIPS
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