Deep Stacked Play - Part 3, cont.

Well, since there hasn't been too much response on the hand (do you guys not like to read math and whatnot?), I figure I'll just make a couple more comments and be done with it. I think I pretty well established that shoving is better than folding, and that calling is at least as good as folding. The two remaining questions are: is it better to raise less than all-in, and can calling be better than raising?

Let's go with the second question first. We considered our play and our expected winnings for 17 of the 45 possible turn cards (45 because we had a very strong belief about BB's holdings, in particular that they never include a T,9,5,4,3 or deuce...we could maybe even make this stronger using our assumptions about what MP1 holds). These plays got us an EV of around -70, or the same as folding. The EV of shoving is somewhere between -35 and 110, depending on what MP has. There are 28/45 cards left in the deck. To make calling as good as shoving, I'd have to find an average of somewhere between 45/28*(35) = 56 and 45/28*(180) = 289. In the first case, I'd need another 9 or 10 turn cards where I'd get check-folded to. That's tough, but not impossible. I think pretty much any ace would be a good card to bet when checked to, especially the ace of diamonds. Kings aren't bad either. The reason is that the BB is going to bet again if he makes a set on the turn, and MP will bet those cards if he's got either a set on the flop or a diamond draw that turned a pair. If MP turns a flush, I think he'd certainly bet it, since our call on the flop looks like it could be a set. Also, if he turns a J-high flush, he'd want to protect it, since the BB could have the K or A of diamonds.

I think there is enough possibility for profit on the turn that calling is a reasonable option, especially if you feel very confident in your reads on the other players and your ability to exploit them. But overall shoving is probably better, and you avoid sticky situations like if the Ad comes, it's checked to you, you bet, and one of the other players shoves. That's a gross spot. Shoving eliminates tough decisions later in the hand, which might be slightly less +EV if you're able to play perfectly on the turn, but given that none of us is perfect, sticking it all in on the flop is fine. Whereas my first instinct was that calling would end up being pretty clearly superior to shoving, it turns out you've got to play the turn very well (and your opponents have to play it somewhat poorly) to make calling better.

As far as raising less than all-in, certainly you're not going to be raising and then folding, so the question is really how raising less than all-in affects the range of cards MP will fold (he'd probably never just call a raise on the flop, he'd either shove or fold). He might be a little more likely to shove over the top with AdKd or JdTd or even TT than he would be to call a shove with them, since you have given him the illusion of fold equity. And you do want these hands to fold. So I think if you're going to raise, you should probably just go ahead and make it an all-in raise.

-BRUECHIPS