Exploiting Light 3-Bettors

Now that PT3 is out, I think 3-betting pre-flop will become even more common than it is now. Previously Holdem Manager was the only software with 3bet stats. Since most players were using Poker Tracker 2, which didn't have 3bet stats, it was hard to get data on how often other players were opening for a raise and then folding to a 3bet. Doing this too often is an extremely exploitable strategy. As Gnome mentioned recently, now that the numbers are out, if you are open-folding too often, you're gonna get pwnd. How often is too often?

Well, let's think about it from your opponent's point of view. Say you open for 4 bbs, which is pretty standard (if your standard open is a different amount, redoing the math for this amount is easy enough). Say the villain's 3bet size will be 12 bbs. If you fold to his 3bet (let's assume the other players left to act behind the villain, if any, are always folding. This is not that restrictive an assumption, as cold-calling a 3bet or 4-betting is pretty rare), he wins 5.5 bbs (your open, plus the blinds). His profit JUST from the 3bet is p*5.5 - (1-p)*12, where p is your fold-to-3bet percentage. In other words, if p>12/17.5=68.5%, he's making immediate profit on his 3-bet. This is his profit if the other 32% of the time you re-raise and he folds. Of course sometimes he'll have AA and shove when you re-raise and win a whole lot more, or maybe you will decide to set mine or something to his 3-bet and he will c-bet you out of the pot. So this is definitely a pretty loose upper bound on what your fold-to-3bet should be against an opponent who understands this sort of math. The right number will be lower than this, perhaps significantly so. Certainly if you find some villains with fold to 3-bet of 65%+, try to get on their left and 3-bet them until they figure it out.

The next question is, how do you defend against the villain's strategy? 4b light? Call and raise his c-bet with air? Slowplay monsters? Well, I'm experimenting myself. But here above is one line I took against this guy who had a 3bet % of 22. That's ridiculous. Some players would see this number, get a little timid, and think, "OK, I'll wait for the nuts and then 4bet him". But you're not going to get the nuts often enough to deter him from 3betting you, and when you 4bet the nuts, he will likely have nothing and fold. Basically, he will make more money stealing your opens than you will re-stealing his 3-bets. You could also tighten up your opening range, but you can't tighten it up too much at a 6-max table with the blinds coming around so often.

The problem with his strategy is that often he's going to have to put a LOT of chips in the pot with rags and fold later on in the hand. He had already bet me out of a couple of pots, so I decided to call his 3bet this time. I could have 4bet, but I'm pretty sure he would interpret it as me getting sick of his 3betting and 5bet shove a fairly wide range ROR. I thought this would look stronger. And, most importantly, I have position. Exploiting someone who's 3betting you from out of position is much easier than exploiting a button 3-bettor.

On the flop, he's c-betting his entire range. I decided to just call, because again I thought a raise from me wouldn't get much credit, and because his drawy hands have enough equity that he will shove them. On the turn, when he bets half pot, I'm positive he doesn't have an ace. He would bet more to protect against hearts, get full value from a T or JJ, etc., or he might check-raise. So I shoved, he folded, and I won a very nice sized pot without having to go to showdown.

This kind of play makes his EV from 3-betting light out of position go WAY WAY down, because when I call, he is going to lose chips bluffing and getting either re-bluffed or taken to value town a lot. The key was that I first observed his strategy, and then exploited it. Do NOT try this against some 16/12 nit with a sub-5 3-bet %. Even against this guy, he could show up with TT and I would look like a moron, and of course then I wouldn't be writing a post about it ROR. But I think I win this pot often enough for this to be a profitable play, and make him lay off me a bit in the future.

-BRUECHIPS